The disarray in Pakistani Leadership

Pakistan's Men of Power: Top Left Gen Ashfaq Kiyani (holds the key to Army and ISI); Top Right Yusuf Gilani ( Prime Minister); Bottom Left Asif Ali Zardari (The president) and Bottom Right Nawaz Sharif (Former PM and eminent Leader)

The formation of a democratic government led by President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, was seen as the beginning of better times after 9 years of dictatorial rule by Musharraf. The move to Democracy appears to have become one of regression. The state of Pakistan has markedly deteriorated in the last year or so. On hind sight, the choice of Zardari to represent Pakistan has been a wrong one.

Zardari's inabilities have been manifold.
1. Surrendering a large swathe of federal provinces to Taliban and Sharia law is his biggest undoing.

2. Inabilities to cope up with Terrorist attacks in Pakistan, India and elsewhere (featuring the attack on Sri Lankan Cricket team) have earned condemnation in all international forums.

3.The charges of promoting followers, family and friends in government contracts and deals will probably attract investigations in the next regime.

4.The world has also taken note of the removal of charges on nuclear proliferator and renegade scientist Abdul Qadir Khan.

5.Banning former Prime minister Nawaz Sharrif and his brother Shahbaz Sharrif from contesting in elections and holding office will in hind might prove to be the undoing of Zardari.

6.As the political leader of his state, Zardari has not given an impression of control on internal matters and has often vacillated under pressure from various stake holders.

7.The failure to reinstate chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhury has seen outbursts from the members in the judiciary.

8.The move to censor Geo TV from certain parts of Pakistan implies subversion of free speech. Geo TV has been extensively covering anti government protests.

In the face of so many problems and a loose intent to address them, US has initiated a move towards addressing issues through army chief Ashfaq Kiyani is a significant one. US is now trying to engage and influence one who has some control over the army and intelligence. The all powerful Jack of cards (Kiyani) is more handy than the inept King and Ace ( Zardari and Gilani). The jack has now started triumphing the king and the ace. Kiyani has asked Zardari to clean up the 'Mess'. Well, it looks as he some one atleast has a measure of control in Pakistan.

Article Chronology:

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/is-pakistan-dividing-again.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_17.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/did-obama-force-zardaris-hand.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_20.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_18.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/next-terror-attack-on-us-will-originate.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/11/us-suspects-kashmir-based-group-behind.html

Elections and the Populist Gravy train

Barrack Obama may not find supporters of his "stimulus act" to the American economy. But he has serious serious competition in India. Sample the populist measures unvieled by different state governments for the people of their states:

1. Uttar Pradesh: After Dalit reservation, it is time for Upper caste and Muslim quota by Mayawati. Then there are one time settlements of power bill arrears in villages and a relaxation of stamp duty on property registrations from 10% to 7%. Most of the properties bought will be by mayawati anyways.
No one talks of the death of a hard working PWD engineer who was lynched by Mayawati's henchmen.
2. Tamil Nadu: Free health insurance to poor, Rice at 1kg/kilo, free colour TV sets to all households.
3. Maharashtra: More floor space for religious temples, special grants for education institutions of minorities. Mandatory employement of sons of soil (marathi manus) in industries of the state.
4. Andhra: Rs.1 lkah loan waiver for SC/ST/BC and minorities. 9 communities to BCs list.
5. Madhya Pradesh: Wheat @ Rs.2 Kg/Kilo. Farm loans @3%. Rs. 50000 loan waiver for farmers.
6. Rajasthan: 6% DA to state employees, an annual outlay of Rs.17322 crores for development.
7. West Bengal: Rice at Rs.2 Kg/Kilo, 20% pay hike for teachers, Rs.5106 crore fiscal stimulus package.
8. Bihar: Rs.16300 crore for development of 36,500 kms roads, Rs.236 crore steel plant at Bettiah, Schemes worth Rs. 10000 crores in 20 districts
9. Karnataka: Rs.130 crores for Mutts and temples.

In an earlier post, i had mentioned the cost of elections to exchequer and party spends to be around Rs.6000 crores. The figures announced in populist policies is an estimable one. All this a cost to the exchequer and to the taxes that the citizens pay for 543 corrupt / illiterate / inefficient/ unrelentingly shameless representative of the state. ALl this is a bribe to the electorate for which the electorate foots the bill. What recession, Mr. Obama?

General Elections: The great Indian tamasha

The leaders of our democracy continually disgrace the office and the trust that they carry by the citizens of the country. Criminalization of Politics is rampant and with the majority seats being the major electoral agendas, parties both national and regional choose candidates who are from dubious backgrounds to lead constituencies, state and the country. With the new citizen activism taking wings, 2009 looks to be beginning of an anti criminalization movement in the country. One must give kudos to the social and political thinkers, awareness generation groups and the press for supporting this new movement. A new ad campaign doing rounds of the satellite networks is the "i will vote against.." which exhorts citizens to vote against all that is ill in this country for the future generations.

Impervious to this mood however (strangely) are political parties, who seem to be eternally haggling about seat sharing and opportunistic alliances. BJP led NDA has run into problems with JD(U) and Shiv Sena. Apart from that a long time partner BJD (Naveen Pattnaik led Orissa party) has already ditched BJP to join the third front. Congress and UPA have its own list of woes with SP (AN uneasy alliance that has broken down), NCP, TMC and RJD all on seat sharing basis. The gainer of all this is the third front or the left with its ragmatag loose coalition of marginal and state majors. So far, a national agenda is yet to be firmly highlighted by Congress and BJP who seem to be more busy in terms of getting its partners right.

In an earlier post i had already mentioned about how the initial Lok Sabha candidates list by BJP, INC and SP are tainted with individuals from dubios and criminal cases riding behind them. http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/criminalization-of-politics-revisiting.html. Of the 543 representatives of the country in May 2004, 125 had charges against them, many with serious offences.Of the 125, 96 had serious charges with potential sentences of two years or more. A quarter of them had done more than 3 terms in the Lok Sabha.

It is worth a note how BJP and Congress dominate the party list, fielding close to 50% of the total tainted list. The first party lists for the general election this year have started to flow out and out of the 18 out of 71 candidates on whom the background checks were have emerged tainted. The percentages of candidates with Criminal past is definitely not abating. If anything the trend is getting more and more established.

The urban rural divide and electoral anti incumbency.

Historically,the anti incumbency factor has delivered some telling blows to governments, upsetting poll surveys, analysts and conventional thinking. The best example of this is perhaps the fall of BJP led NDA in 2004 general elections. That was when the GDP Growth was starting to get at 8% levels, the economy was resurgent and "India Shinning" was the phrase to sum up India. 2009 is markedly different.The GDP growth has fallen to 5.3% in October - December quarter of 2008 from the 8.9% levels in the same period in 2007. Agricultural GDP is at2.2% growth (low from 6.9% YOY), Manufacturting had a sub zero GDP growth rate. Economies around the world are faltering, there is a global meltdown of the banking systems and governments around the world are trying their best to rekindle economic growth. How is all this going to affect the incumbency of Congress and its UPA alliance?

On one side, the manufacturing slump means fewer jobs for migrants from rural states to once booming cities, job growth is slowing and many small businesses and hawkers are suffering. Infrastructure addition has not been as per the promises made by the government, their are real time "terror" issues.es sector, which relies heavily on foriegn markets have gone from bad to worse in the current economic meltdown.

But if the indicators are to be factored in, Rural India is doing well. Sample this:
1. 15 million new cellphone connections were sold in january 2009, up from 10 million in December and all this growth is rural based.
2. Hero Honda's sales of motorcycles which focus on rural areasrose 24% in February.
3. FMCG sector has been doing better than average business in the small towns and rural areas.
4. Agriculture has been witnessing bumper crops and high prices, a boon for the agri economy.
5. Rural wages are high, assisted by the Rural Employment Generation Scheme. Several states have revised minimum wages upward benefitting workers.
6. For the millions working in government organizations, the 6th Pay commission has increased salaries and they are doing well sitting on arrears paid.
7. A good monsoon has bouyed up the agri sector and though rainfull is painfully deficient in some states leading to farmer suicides, the overall mood is optimistic.

All factors put together, Rural India seesm to be doing better and with 70% of the population being rural, the ruling coalition has reasons to believe that it has done reasonable well in terms of building a platform to ask for a re-election. Thus the Congress led UPA is not badly placed in terms of riding against anti incumbency with the rural surge.

Criminalization of Politics: Revisiting the same paradigm in 2009 Elections

With election commission declaring a 5 stage electoral process for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the political tempo has set a pace with seat sharing bargains between the principal parties (Congress/BJP) with other regional parties. ToI's first round poll results have indicated no definiote majority and in effect, it would be these political parties which would prove to be the kind makers in the face of a hung parliament.

What is disturbing to the citizens of the state is the number of candidates with criminal pasts being fielded by political parties all over. These are same political parties which roil and shout and critic each others criminals antecedents. In two different reports by ADR (Association of Democratic Reforms), a Ahmedabad NGO has exposed the criminal background of lok sabha candidates fielded by Congress, BJP and SP. This is only basis the 50000 criminal records since 2003 (and not earlier!)

Basis the limited database that the NGO was working around, it can be clearly seen that INC has fielded 4 candidates in UP with criminal background, while BJP has fielded 8 in the LOk Sabha Fray who have criminal backgrounds. BSP has fielded 6 criminals in the Lok Sabha candidates. Many of these candidates have serious charges against them.

WIth lack of a political will, does clean politics stand a chance in this nation: the largest democracy in the world.