(I had written this article around October 2nd, 2008 on a vacation. Had not been able to publish it for reasons of connectivity)
The reasons for failure of Pakistan as a nation state. ( At this time, i have genuine doubts whether Pakistan has a future as a political entity.)
1. Born out of a significant "anti India" stance, Pakistan as a state has focussed more and most on its defence and military overtures. It really never had an agenda in development as a nation except India bashing. 6 decades later, Pakistan as a society is impoverished, undernourished and under-developed with no signs of looking better in the future.
2:It was an American ally (during cold war), a Taliban ally (during Afghanistan- Russia conflict) , a Chinese ally, an Azad Kashmir proponent, a Nuclear power, an Al Qaeda base and many more. Pakistan army, its defence forces and its secret service, ISI have held its governance ransom to their demands in many ocassions. Military expenditure as a part of the total National GDP in Pakistan has been extremely high because of the war and arms-idealogy that was in the fore-front of the national interests.
3: Its fledgeling democracy never really got going in real terms. In its history from 1947 till date, the prime ministers office was occupied for 32 years, which is about 50% of the total time. The other 50% of the time, the country had been run under presidential rule or martial law.
4: Since as far as i remember, Pakistani economy has only survived off US and world bank aid. There is zero foriegn investment in the country and reliance on international creditors for hard currency inflows has been on the upswing mostly through the decade.
5: With no real social economic development, the citizenry has plunged into destitution and poverty. The poor human development indicators support this arguement. Thus they have taken refuge in the arms of what we call "radical Islam": The idealogical birthground of terrorism.
6: With the military and ISI who were hand in hand with the terror organizations in India, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, this decade's "American war of Terror" has been the cause of Pakistan's undoing.
7: Pakistan is now caught between a deadly cross fire. On one end is the anti terror American axis, which is the only support that Pakistan as an economy really has. On the other hand, Pakistan cannot wipe out its murky past where it has been and still is an active harbour for terrorists. The ISI Army nexus pledge themselves to the Jihad. US of A, the greatest anti thesis and the prime target of Jihad, is Pakistani economy's biggest aid provider.
8: If Pakistan is seen politically all over the globe as a state abetting terrorism, it risks sanctions and loss of support. Withdrawal of that support can plummet Pakistan into a civil war which its society can ill afford. Its social and economic structures are too delicate to be able to breathe without the US respirator.
9: Hardcore elements in the governance will ensure that any process that tries to move away from Radical Islam is quickly stubbed off. The 26/11 Mumbai Terror plot was followed by a very real "coup and military take over" scenario in Pakistan. How ever hard the extremists and supporters of Radical Islam support their faith, they cannot over look the US respirator thus bringing them to a dead lock.
10: Thus Pakistan is in a stalemate where its external relations with US and tottering economy wont let its internal factions act decisively in terms of taking over. On the other hand, these internal factions will not allow the friends of Pakistani Democracy (assume Asif Ali Zardari to be one of them) to do much against the war on terror (accept perhapos Lip service and token arrests).
11. Which ever way it is, the choice is between the devil and deep sea for Pakistan. Whether Asif Ali Zardari would like to accept it or not, Pakistan UN intervention to get hold of things in their country. The sooner the better for him for the way i see it for him, an assasination attempt is not too far off in the present scenario.
The reasons for failure of Pakistan as a nation state. ( At this time, i have genuine doubts whether Pakistan has a future as a political entity.)
1. Born out of a significant "anti India" stance, Pakistan as a state has focussed more and most on its defence and military overtures. It really never had an agenda in development as a nation except India bashing. 6 decades later, Pakistan as a society is impoverished, undernourished and under-developed with no signs of looking better in the future.
2:It was an American ally (during cold war), a Taliban ally (during Afghanistan- Russia conflict) , a Chinese ally, an Azad Kashmir proponent, a Nuclear power, an Al Qaeda base and many more. Pakistan army, its defence forces and its secret service, ISI have held its governance ransom to their demands in many ocassions. Military expenditure as a part of the total National GDP in Pakistan has been extremely high because of the war and arms-idealogy that was in the fore-front of the national interests.
3: Its fledgeling democracy never really got going in real terms. In its history from 1947 till date, the prime ministers office was occupied for 32 years, which is about 50% of the total time. The other 50% of the time, the country had been run under presidential rule or martial law.
4: Since as far as i remember, Pakistani economy has only survived off US and world bank aid. There is zero foriegn investment in the country and reliance on international creditors for hard currency inflows has been on the upswing mostly through the decade.
5: With no real social economic development, the citizenry has plunged into destitution and poverty. The poor human development indicators support this arguement. Thus they have taken refuge in the arms of what we call "radical Islam": The idealogical birthground of terrorism.
6: With the military and ISI who were hand in hand with the terror organizations in India, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, this decade's "American war of Terror" has been the cause of Pakistan's undoing.
7: Pakistan is now caught between a deadly cross fire. On one end is the anti terror American axis, which is the only support that Pakistan as an economy really has. On the other hand, Pakistan cannot wipe out its murky past where it has been and still is an active harbour for terrorists. The ISI Army nexus pledge themselves to the Jihad. US of A, the greatest anti thesis and the prime target of Jihad, is Pakistani economy's biggest aid provider.
8: If Pakistan is seen politically all over the globe as a state abetting terrorism, it risks sanctions and loss of support. Withdrawal of that support can plummet Pakistan into a civil war which its society can ill afford. Its social and economic structures are too delicate to be able to breathe without the US respirator.
9: Hardcore elements in the governance will ensure that any process that tries to move away from Radical Islam is quickly stubbed off. The 26/11 Mumbai Terror plot was followed by a very real "coup and military take over" scenario in Pakistan. How ever hard the extremists and supporters of Radical Islam support their faith, they cannot over look the US respirator thus bringing them to a dead lock.
10: Thus Pakistan is in a stalemate where its external relations with US and tottering economy wont let its internal factions act decisively in terms of taking over. On the other hand, these internal factions will not allow the friends of Pakistani Democracy (assume Asif Ali Zardari to be one of them) to do much against the war on terror (accept perhapos Lip service and token arrests).
11. Which ever way it is, the choice is between the devil and deep sea for Pakistan. Whether Asif Ali Zardari would like to accept it or not, Pakistan UN intervention to get hold of things in their country. The sooner the better for him for the way i see it for him, an assasination attempt is not too far off in the present scenario.
On a sign off note, there is this small caricature that i chanced upon in 2002, which really depicts the US - Pak - Al Qaeda - Terror nexus very aptly.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment