I suppose i should now change the headline of this series of posts. Over the last 3 months, i have in a series of blogs stressed upon the dire straits that Pakistan is in today. By all means it is a crumbling nation imploding under its own fanatic religious idealogies.
Two days back, Pakistan Government has ceeded the control of Swat valley to Taliban. The mechanics include introduction of Sharia laws (Islamic Laws) in the beleagured Malakand area and a temporary suspension of military activities in the region. The direct accruals out of this development:
1. Taliban now have a safe haven/province, a sanctuary for Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. For the first time, we have a terrorist state on the global map!
2. Taliban is discomfortingly close to Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is well within a hands lenght of the Taliban Extremists!
3. Even as Taliban celebrate this event by rallies around Swat, this is Pakistan government's deepest and darkest hour when they are no longer able to retain control of their provinces.
4. Islamabad's faltering military campaign (which US pays for) is tentatively put on hold and Taliban have agreed for a tentative ceasefire.
According to the terms of the agreement, "all non-Shari'a laws" have been abrogated in Malakand. Security forces "will only act if fired upon by militants." And if the "writ of the state is restored," the army's 12,000 troops will be withdrawn from the valley. The agreement, enjoys the support of President Asif Ali Zardari.
To quote Time magazine on a source within the Pakistan Government, " government's acceptance of the [sharia] courts was an attempt to blunt efforts of the Taliban to woo Swat residents frustrated by the ineffective judiciary. The Taliban was trying to take advantage of the local movement and desire for a judicial system". Thus by putting the Sharia into prcatise the goverment is trying to appease its citizen in the valley, who have been frustrtade by Pakistan's venal courts and judiciary systems. This appeasement would stear the suppoorters away from the jihadist, isolate the militants and with the help of local leaders restore peace.
Under the Islamic laws, bombing of girl schools, subjgation of women, public beheadings, assassinations and Taliban courts to dispense justice would now be the order of the land in Malakand province. This follows a break down on the judicial system to dispense justice to citizens in the province. Sources with Malakand provinces have been quoted saying Islamabad
does not have sufficient force to defeat the Taliban and foreign fighters based in the autonomous tribal areas along the Afghan border and thus needs to negotiate with local militant groups in nearby areas like Swat to isolate the renegade hardliners in the tribal sanctuaries.
does not have sufficient force to defeat the Taliban and foreign fighters based in the autonomous tribal areas along the Afghan border and thus needs to negotiate with local militant groups in nearby areas like Swat to isolate the renegade hardliners in the tribal sanctuaries.
Once a popular tourist destination, Swat has over the past two years seen more than 1,500 people killed, close to 200 schools destroyed and girls' education banned, scores of beheadings and kidnappings, and more than 100,000 people driven from their homes.
Analysts and Observers say that this is a dangerous gamble and specially so with Islamabad which has limited control on its own defence establishments! Allowing Taliban a breather would allow them to regroup and push more at a later date which would not only endanger Pakistan but also have grave implicatiosn for India, US and the world.
My belief is that this is the beginning of the end game for Pakistan. Under US and iunternational pressure, Pakistan may have to take military action against the Taliban in the province. By allowing Taliban to regroup now, it will face a stronger foe. Chances are the situation will implode from within and Taliban will take a lot that is "Pakistan" down with it. An "Afghanistan" fate awaits Pakistan in the near future and the recent gambit has irrecoverably put Pakistan on the one way to destruction.
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