Thursday, December 18, 2008

Now is the Time for Barrack Obama





Over most of 2008, i watched Barrack Hussein Obama overcome herculean odds to become the next president of United States. To me the preliminaries where he fought Hillary Clinton were a greater test of the person than the actual Democrats versus Republicans election against John McCain. For most of the part, Obama never faltered with his message of change must come to America. John McCain's choice of his deputy, the pin up Sarah Palin, was a significant cause of his defeat.



However, this blog does-not deal with that. It deals with Obama, the successor of Bush. For 6 and a half years, Bush was a buffoon on the most important seat in the world. As the president of US, Bush actions were not only jibbed, laughed at, cartooned and caricatured; the enormity of his policies and mistakes have made the world a whole lot more unsafe then it was before. A failed War of Terrorism which saw him burn up trillions without any effect, a domestic economy reeling under the financial crisis, the fall of the wall street and the big american firms, failed agreements: there is precious little to show on his result card, as Bush bows out. I would assume that in the history of American presidency Bush was the most lampooned president ever (not withstanding the Media multiplication). Little wonder then that George W Bush, the 43rd President of America ends his term in a manner of a lame duck with a fitting tribute to his 8 years at the oval office, a size 10 boot. (From Iraq with love). The world lays seize to very real threats such as climate change, terror and a long depression. Mr Bush retires with a next to zero score on his report card. His eccentricities and funny ways have not helped his cause and reputation either. Love to see this comic strip called Bush in Big Brother or something.

At this time, the world and the american citizenry looks upto Obama with hope and encouragement. They see him to be an agent of Change, a politically savvy, self aware and intelligent spokesperson. One that the world needs so badly at this time. Apart from his persona, Obama has won hearst and minds with his actions. I singularly find, the appointment of Hillary Clinton to his team as a masterstroke. Hillary is too good an administrator to miss in any team that roots for change. Her inclusion into the cabinet signals that Obama means business and if that means teaming up with his arch nemesis to lead US out of the woods, he wouldnot bauly at it. (I wish the Indian politicians learnt a few things from Obama). As Obama prepares to take over the white house, he has a manifold agenda which includes putting some order back to the mess Bush is leaving behind and activating an agenda which propels change for better. Obama faces a stiff challenge in many and more fronts...
1. Leading the US out of the economic mess that it is. From being a recession that is worst in the last 80 years to a real time deflation threat. Obama and the Fed will have to look at means and measures to put the super economy of US back to the wheels.
2. The Big three are going under. The Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Meryll Lynch, AIG, Citigroup and many more are on Fed respirators. It is going to be a tough bullet to bite as Obama would presides over "how to overhaul the economy?". This has very powerful implications on the way people are going to see him in US as well around the world.
3. Climate is one of the most important issues facing the world. The tussle between the developed and underdeveloped world over Carbon emissions are going to be another critical test for Obama. How would he balance that?
4. The power centres in the world are shifting to China and India, both emerging strong and fast. How does US react and recognise these new kids on the block?
5. Terror is a real threat looming large. How would US handle delicate situations like the Afghan - Pak - India conflict / dilemna. Currently US is playing the peace monger but the relevance of the new kids along with the terror situation is going to be formidable challenge.
6. US has messed up in Iraq and it looks like it is following course in Afghanistan. Will there be a significant chnage in the American way of dealing with Terror now on? Its Obama's turn to decide.

Obama's aura is formidable (being the Time's man of the year)... the challenges presented are going to test every nerve in Obama as he takes over. It is scary to think but media and people over the world over rate this man... is he the Messiah he is supposed to be?

Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation (PartII)



An interesting article on Business Week about the state of Pakistan. This further extends my initial blog on Pakistan http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2008/gb20081020_947596.htm#readerComments


Pakistan's Economic Crisis

•Even though Pakistan's financial crisis isn't directly linked to Wall Street's credit crunch or to subprime mortgages, the country's leaders seem confident that Pakistan will get its own bailout. President Asif Ali Zardari has spent the last month mending fences with India and playing nice with Washington. Zardari is now in China, where he will ask for a soft loan of as much as $1.5 billion. Why is he so confident Pakistan will get the money, when only recently Iceland had to go begging to Russia? Here are the reasons.

War on Terror

Effective or not, Pakistan is the U.S.'s closest ally in the war on terror. Since 2001, the U.S. has given Pakistan nearly $10 billion in military aid and has taken a keen interest in maintaining some semblance of stability in Islamabad. Even if the U.S. is not in a position to hand over cash right away, it wields influence with Pakistan's creditors and over such common allies as Saudi Arabia

Nuclear Weapons Power

As long as Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons, it is unlikely that foreign governments will allow serious political or economic upheavals that could undermine control of those weapons. There's little danger of Pakistan selling weapons technology for foreign exchange (though this has happened in the past), but a weak central government is worrisome.


Foreign Investors

The Karachi Stock Exchange is barely functional, with onerous limits and artificial price props. But for most of the first half of 2008, it was one of the world's few moderately sized markets that seemed immune from the subprime taint. Foreign investors rushed in, pushing the KSE up nearly 40% by midyear. Now they must wait alongside Karachi's irate small investors to extract their money.


The Friends of Pakistan

Later this month, Pakistan will hold a donor meeting in Abu Dhabi with an informal group called the Friends of Pakistan. There, President Zardari hopes Saudi Arabia will help deal with his country's oil import needs while other nations assist with its debts


China's Friendship
This week, Pakistan has a new friend—China, which Zardari is visiting for four days. With nearly $1.9 trillion in foreign exchange and a decade-long policy of supporting Pakistan as a counterweight to India, China might just prove itself to be the all-weather friend Zardari keeps calling it.

Pakistan on the Brink


Last week, Pakistan's credit rating slipped to second worst in the world, just a step above that of Seychelles. With less than a month and a half of foreign exchange reserves and no more than 10 days of oil supplies at hand (down from 21 days earlier this year), Pakistan truly stands at the brink of bankruptcy.

Foreign lenders

If Pakistan opts to default, creditors stand to lose huge sums at a time when lending markets are already in cardiac arrest.

Is Terror a Political Problem?

Amir Ajmal Kasav.. i am sure he did not bargain for the amount of publicity and diplomatic stalemate that he has generated. At 21, Ajmal Kasav today is the face of the global Jehadi. he might be linked to the Mumbai terror plot, but in essence he could be the same person in 9/11 or in any of the other terrorist attacks world over.
I happened to go through an article some time back written by Swaminathan Iyer in ToI. There have been more proponents to the idea that we need to fight terror at its root: The Idealogy. The analogy given here is that of US covertly using propaganda to show the failure of Communist state to channelise and ferment a lack of trust on Russians during the Afghan Russia conflict. a Compelling thought there. By stamping out the idealogy of Jihad, one makes the movement irrelevant. A Brilliant political move! However, is the answer to this question just in the Politics of state and idealogy? I differ...
An interesting thought on poverty i read sometime back was "poverty was the lack of Economic activity" (which generates wealth and hence the antidote). Probably that is where the answer to the idealogy game is. Driven by hunger, death, malnutrition, unemployment, money, loss of identity... youth all over the world have explored various possible ways of expressing their rage and anger. India as a country is no exception to the rule. What of the naxalite movements in West Bengal, Andhra, Chattisgarh and other such states? What of Punjab and J&K? What of the Azamgarh terrorists who placed bombs in Delhi? The spectre of home grown terrorists is not new to India. We extrapolate the thought to the world. Regions strife with lack of economic prosperity, war, inequities in governance and social systems and civil unrests are the fermenting grounds for terror organization. Ajmal Kassav, a son of a pakore walla took the this path because of lack of economic progress. He was hardened and brain washed by Jihadis and then came the 26/11 terror. I dont condone Ajmal Kassav, but his case provides interesting insights.
Lack of economic progress creates poverty and frustration, which leads young men into the dark world for the lure of money or betterment. Soon these people are spotted and trained in Jihad. Little wonder then that the ravaged states of Africa and countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan or war torn states produce the best jihadis.
Lessons for states and politicans: We have to make people a part of the economic progress. Only when all or most of the people in the lowest levels of the society are involved in functions that enable them to lead their lives better to end poverty and frustration would you be able to nip such idealogies in the bud. Give every man his chance to earn his own bread to the best of his capabilities and allow him to dream and grow for a better future.. that is the way to a world order in peace and stability. Politics and politicians, statesmen and leaders should try to empower societies and states to do so and by doing that you are taking away all and any reasons as to why would one end up frustrated and think about the world of crime.
As a footnote, i am reminded of Pierce Brosnan in "After the sunset" who says "you dont have to think about that (crime), if you are enjoying life (fruits of labour)..."