Dictator Democracy

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Dictator-democracy/articleshow/5120815.cms
An article Re-print of Jug Suraiya's Dictator Democracy on the ToI. While the treatment of the subject is sarcastic and humorous, it asks a very sensitive question: Whether government decrees and force feed democrcay like the one in Maharashtra is in true spirit of democracy.

Can democracy be a democracy and a dictatorship, both at the same time? Yes, it can, if it's Indian democracy. The Maharashtra government decreed that when the state went to assembly polls, Mumbai would forcibly be shut down shops, restaurants, schools, offices, factories, all closed so that people, with nothing else to be distracted by or to do, would be forced to vote.

The reason for this drastic measure to force-feed democracy or at least elections to Mumbaikars is that the otherwise 'can do' city is notoriously 'can't do' or 'won't do' when it comes to voting. This was evident in the last Lok Sabha polls in which the voter turnout was just over 40 per cent. The fact that the polls coincided with a long weekend which lured many Mumbaikars to out-of-town holidays was deemed to be largely responsible for the poor showing. However, sarkari concern was voiced over the seeming political apathy of a city which had just suffered a murderous terrorist attack and should have been all gung-ho about manning the barricades of democracy as represented by the ballot box, instead of swanning off on holiday.

To preclude the possibility of the assembly elections also proving a non-event in terms of turnout, the authorities reportedly issued orders that anyone failing to comply with the shutdown diktat was liable to face arrest under Section 135-B of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. To ensure compliance with this closed-door policy, special squads patrolled the city to make sure that no one was subverting democracy by trying to sneak into a school, or an office, or a factory, or a shop, or a restaurant. Go to vote. Or you might find yourself in jail: that was the message, willy-nilly, that officialdom sent out not just to Mumbaikars but to all of us who are citizens of this democracy.

Mumbai's case is symptomatic of a fundamental problem of our democracy. Democracy is supposed to be about empowering people, the common citizens, and helping them to get on with their daily lives as best they can (by going to schools, offices, factories, etc). But our sarkar seems convinced that democracy is only about empowering itself, at the expense of the people and their day-to-day needs.

India's political class and the successive governments that it forms, and which often comprise the strangest of bedfellows sees democracy only in terms of elections. It doesn't really matter which party comes into power, for in the end as a number of blatantly opportunistic alliances and coalitions have shown they are all fundamentally the same: cynical exploiters of the people.

Or at least that's the message that all our political parties have over the years been communicating, consciously or otherwise, to an increasingly sceptical electorate. The way our political parties, all our political parties of all shades and stripes, appear to see it is that the function of our democracy is only to hold periodic elections in which voters will, forcibly if necessary, vote one or other, or several, of these parties into power. Having fulfilled that basic duty (of having voted a politician into power) the voter can go jump. The voter's and the politician's democratic responsibility is over. Elections are the end all and be all of our democracy. And never mind what happens in between, never mind the persistent hardships and despair that citizens continue to face in their daily lives.

This is the real meaning of the Mumbai bandh on polling day: in our democracy the voter has no right of education, employment, earning a livelihood, whatever other than the right to vote. Indeed, as the Mumbai authorities would have it, the voter's right to vote is not just a right but an enforceable obligation. In other words, you've got to vote, whether you like it or not, whether you feel it's going to better your daily life in any way or not.

Jai ho to the democratic dictatorship of India that is Bharat.

Noble Cause or Noble Duplicity

http://www.livemint.com/2009/10/11213737/A-prize-to-bind-nuclear-India.html: a Mint article on Obama, the geo-politics of disarmament and winning the Noble prize.

Prizes are usually given after the fact: Herta Mueller and Venkatraman Ramakrishnan first write about Romania or research ribosomes—they later get Nobels for their work. Then, there’s the strange occasion where a prize is awarded before the fact: US President Barack Obama wins the Nobel Peace Prize for just dreaming to rid the world of nuclear weapons. If that dream comes anywhere close to becoming fact, India will find itself with nothing to celebrate.

On the same day that Obama was awarded the Nobel, he sent a letter to the US Congress or “certification” under the US-India civilian nuclear deal. This certified that the US would work to “further restrict the transfers of equipment and technology related to the enrichment of uranium and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel”.

There’s no cause and effect here as yet: US law requires this general certification. But what if there’s cause and effect in the future?

The Nobel is sure to give Obama affirmation about his ideas for a nuclear weapons-free world. The trouble is that he is unlikely to be able to get countries such as Iran and North Korea to back off from the path they’ve chosen. He is also unlikely to be able to get Russia and China to disarm before the US takes such steps. That leaves players such as India that are considered easy to arm-twist in this quest.

It’s no secret that the White House has pressured India in the last few months on this issue. Post-Nobel, there’s the danger this pressure will increase.

Part of this centres on the US Democratic Party’s perception of India as being “obstructionist”. While they kowtow to China, progressives refuse to acknowledge, unlike—and perhaps even in reaction to—Bush, the exception the civilian nuclear deal seeks to give India.

The other part centres on what US journalist Walter Lippmann observed in 1943 about the disarmament movement—that it had been “tragically successful in disarming the (very) nations that believed in disarmament”. India, as its no-first-use principle shows, shudders at the thought of deploying such weapons. Others don’t share that apprehension. Yet, India’s responsible behaviour makes it the low-hanging fruit the disarmament ayatollahs can pick on. The true rogue states are instead appeased.

India must resist these pressures and double standards. This means not only forceful diplomacy, but—in light of the US-India talks that recently commenced in Vienna over reprocessing nuclear fuel and that further facilitate commercial negotiations—also making sure it doesn’t rely too much on the US for materials or diplomatic favours.

Austerity Raj: Lessons from travelling Cattle Class

Stories about Sonia Gandhi and the Congress's austerity drive are all around and all over. Thanks to Tharoor's generous tweeting, the mesaure got more meia coverage than it deserved. Here's Jug Suraiya's sattirical take on the situation. Does it set and example, is as ineffective or doess it genuinely make a difference.

Sarojini Naidu's remark that it cost the Indian taxpayer a lot to keep the Mahatma in the poverty he was accustomed to has gained relevance again, more than 60 years after it was originally made. Sarojini was referring to Gandhiji's habit of travelling by III class on trains, with the result that, for security reasons, an entire coach had to be reserved for him alone. Like history, austerity repeats itself. And the Congress-led UPA government has energetically been embracing conspicuous austerity to win kudos and influence the electorate.

Ostentatious austerity, or spendthrift thrift, has become politically correct in view of the deficit monsoon which is likely to adversely impact the rural economy and act as a brake on India's growth story, already affected by the global slowdown. Taking the cue from Sonia Gandhi, Congresswallas and their allies have been scurrying to show solidarity with what might be called the alms janta by flying economy class on airlines. As 'airdashing' to sundry places the farther off the better is the preferred pastime of our netas, the economy-package rule is likely to cramp their style, amongst other things.But what price such cut-price netas? Just how effective will this austerity raj prove in wooing the once and future voter? Does the average voter - whoever she may be actually want bargain-basement, cheaper-by-the-dozen desh ka netas? Or is this mythical average voter more likely to be impressed by larger-than-life, literally high-flying and big-spending brand leaders, be they political fat cats, Bollywood superstars, or cricket crorepatis?

The misapprehension that a lot of armchair ascetics make is that austerity is a virtue in the eyes of the poor; it isn't. Austerity is a virtue only in the eyes of the affluent (people who observe religious fasts or go on diets to lose the excess weight their wealth has burdened them with). For the poor, austerity is an ever-present evil, an inescapable nemesis; it's the gnawing pain of an empty belly, the skeletal spectre of despair.

The poor don't want to see people whom they know to be rich and powerful as their netas must be, or why are they netas in the first place? to enact austerity; the poor recognise this for the sanctimonious hypocrisy that it is. (Fly economy and how many of the poor can afford to fly at all, forget economy? and continue to live in a Lutyens' bungalow which costs over Rs 150 crore, which would provide a school and a hospital each for some 150 villages.)

Marie Antoinette almost got it right: if the poor can't eat bread, they can eat vicarious cake through others. Mayawati is one of the few Indian politicians who seems to have understood this. Behenji long ago realised that leave alone cake, even enabling the poor to eat bread is a task beyond her capabilities (or her inclinations, or both) as a political leader. So she did the next best thing. She enabled the poor to watch her eat birthday cake, and wear diamonds in her hair, and put up hundreds of crores worth of statues to herself.

Mayawati's political strategy is the mirror image of conspicuous austerity; it is proxy prodigality, second-hand cake. True, this strategy doesn't seem to have worked any too well, going by the results of the last polls.

But it's early days yet. Sooner rather than later, the Indian voter poor or otherwise will see through the sham of conspicuous austerity just as she sees through Behenji's conspicuous consumption. In that they both end up beggaring us, they're both the same: a pain in the austerity.

As an Indian subject to vagaries of "being Indian and staying in India", i wont care less if our ministers travel cattle class or not. What makes a difference is, how much effort and what results do they bring to this country. Austerity is good, planning is better, excution is best.

Social development: Terrorisms' antidote!

Pakistan had declared Osama bin Laden dead. However, to mark 9/11, Osama and a 11 minute video released by As-Sahab media production have now surfaced putting the Pkaistan claim to shame. The Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden described President Barack Obama as "powerless" to stop the war in Afghanistan, and Americans' inability to grasp why the 9/11 attacks occurred has "cost you a lot without any result whatsoever". This is not about Osama or his alive or dead status. It is also not about the threat ,which for the first time appears rather muted. There is a deeper thought in the statement.. a thought that is yet to be captured by America and its allies.

Edward Girardet, a world renowned journalist has commented in his new book that the war in Afghanistan can not be won by a military victory. Girardet says "My thesis is that no one can win a war in Afghanistan. You can win peace with development." Whether it is the LTTE in Sri Lanka or Troubled Kashmir or the pirates from Somalia, or the home grown Naxalite movement, Terrorism is a social issue stoked by political and monetary intent. "It's all about outside interest. Whether it is Pakistan, US, India, Russia or Iran, everyone is here for their interest. The parallels are numerous."

Girardet points out to the fact that the old mistakes being repeated over and over again! Quoting Girardet:

"The Mujahideen never fought fixed battles. The same thing is happening now. There's a problem with a conventional army trying to fight a guerrilla war. So when i hear the ISAF claiming that they have cleared an area of Taliban, it reminds me of the days when the Russians would make similar claim about the Mujahideen. And the truth is that you don't have the population on your side. Also, the Americans put a lot of money into aid but it was not monitored. All these things are happening again."

"Experienced people have been telling the international powers here to 'go slow, don't throw money at them, let Afghans consult Afghans, and get the community involved', but none of the big donors here have any patience. So it's not going to work. The Afghans are not dumb. They know exactly what's going on. And the most shocking thing is that most of the people in the higher and middle positions have no idea what this country is all about. My thesis is that no one can win a war in Afghanistan. You can win peace with development. "

If all the monies that were blown up in buying weapons, sending armies, deputing militias and cost of operations were simply put to a better use in developing these nations, the efforts would have built a public consensus on development and growth. That by itself would have weakened the terror idealogies. That would have won the war against terror!The best example of this was the elimination of Taliban from Swat valley because of loss of their idealogical base due to attrocities they committed in the area.

Instead millions of "war" dollars have been spent, usually not yielding any results decades after the first bullet was shot, the first man killed. The governments and international agencies would just had to control the "outside interference" and peace would have taken care of itself.

At the current juncture, Girardet is of the view that a sudden withdrawl of UN/US troops out of Afghanistan would create chaos in the country. He advocates for a well trained and well paid army and internal security force in Afghanistan. Girardet stresses the need to talk to Taliban, to the provinces, to the local communities and leaders and chalk out a plan of development. The only way out of the Afghan war is to work with the people of the country.

The same rule applies across all nations, people and communities in the world. "Give a man a reason to live and he will not resort to any terros tactics ever"

Reference posts:

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/taliban-loosing-its-social-and.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/is-terror-political-problem.html

Delhi's headed for a traffic grid-lock!

Delhi’s arterial roads are breaching capacities before schedule. The City’s traffic has mostly grown to a point where new flyovers no longer help in clearing the congestion. Transport experts say Delhi is well on its way to becoming the next Bangkok, notorious around the world or nightmarish traffic jams. There are several ominous indicators across the city of intersections and flyovers breaching their designed carrying capacity a lot earlier than expected.

According to a 2008 RITES study on vehicular and traffic information around Delhi:

• Since 1972, traffic has increased by a whopping 21 times while road space has risen just 3.7 times.
  
• 44% of stretches are carrying more vehicles than they were designed for, 19% more are on the verge of exceeding capacity.
  
• Peak hour speed is 22kmph and the off peak speed is 26kmph.
  
• Ring-road which was designed for 75000 vehicles a day, has 160,000 vehicles and will hit the 400000 mark by 2011.
  

The reason behind the traffic mayhem is simple. The Capital’s vehicular population has simply exploded in the past decade. As per the economic survey, Delhi registered 564 private vehicles a day which has jumped to 1054 personal vehicles per day in 2006-07, an almost two fold increase and a CAGR of 6.42%. Private vehicles constitute 94% of the total vehicular strength. Delhi at present has 6 million vehicles, which is 10% of the country’s vehicular population. If the trend continues, it will have 250 lakh vehicles in the next 20 years. Much before that, the city will have ground to a complete halt.

Flyovers , Grade separators and signal free intersections are just a short and medium term solution for the traffic problems.

• One would probably need to reduce the load on roads and the Delhi Metro is doing quite a bit of that.
  
• Road widening is another critical point for reducing bottlenecks. This would require work in terms of removing permanent/semi permanent unauthorized buildings. It would also need to work at a “day to day” traffic discipline, specially with the Blue-line busses and large vehicles, which have shown scarce respect for traffic and traffic sense.
  
• One would also need to remove the slow moving vehicles from the road such as rickshaws, hand carts and in some cases auto rickshaws and busses as well etc.
  
• Civilian movement on roads would have to be prosecuted and which will need airways and foot over bridges, underpasses to handle foot traffic.
  
• The Singapore traffic model would also be a good one to follow with restricted entries to classes of vehicles on select roads. This would be marked by higher taxes and different colour numbering boards.
  
• SEZs, Office campuses and Residential complexes would have to be moved out of the city. This will require a comprehensive long term urban planning.
  
• Goods movement would have to restricted and non peak hours designated for goods movement.
  
• Parking lots for busses and other large vehicles need to be designated
  
• Finally, an awareness campaign targeted to the commuter and a strict and corruption free enforcement is needed.

Delhi Commonwealth Games: A super fiasco in making (Part IV)

Failing Revenue Generation Claims

Projected financial bottomlines of the games have already been revised thrice even before the revenues are yet to trickle in. The financial management skills of the organizing committee have come under the scanner of CAG.

As per the bid documents of December 2003, the projected revenue was estimated to be Rs.840 crore and the operating expenditure was projected at Rs.635 crore resulting in savings of Rs.205 crore. In August 2007, the organizing committee increased its income by Rs.60 crore while it hiked its expenditure by Rs.132 crore, thus reducing savings to Rs.133 crores.

A Year later, surprisingly, the committee again revised its projected accounts where estimated surplus cash to zero – no profit, no loss with the total revenue reaching Rs.1780 crore and total expenditure also showing Rs.1780 crore. Suresh Kalmadi, President of the Indian Olympic Association has failed to convince auditors on the avenues of revenue generation.CAG now has stressed on the need for greater and more effective monitoring of the actual use of funds given the multiplicity of agencies involved in executing the project.

Delhi Commonwealth Games: A super fiasco in making (Part III)

Government flouted the 7 year international Norms

There was hardly any method in the way the Games were approached by the planners, says CAG. The organizers were supposed to follow the seven-year project cycle as practiced internationally — two years for planning and approvals, four years for execution, construction and development, and the last year for test events and trial runs.After the event was awarded to New Delhi in 2003, the government instead adopted a four-phase approach. In the first phase, the entire plan for the Games was to be laid out. Two years were allocated for this purpose (January 2004 to May 2006). The second phase was for creation of infrastructure, between May 2006 and May 2008. The delivery of the completed projects was to be made between May 2008 to December 2010.CAG observed that there was no evidence of the four phase approach being translated into action from 2004 to 2006 (phase one), nor during a major part of phase two. In fact, in its response to CAG observations, the organizing committee said that till the appointment of technical and HR consultants in 2006, it had little or no experience in organizing an event of this magnitude.

Lack of governance and mismanagement is not new to India and Indians. As a nation, if India cuts a sorry face in CWG in October 2010, it will dampen the global perception of India and Indians. But, it will also probably awaken the system and authorities and bring in greater accountability and responsibility into the system. If the CWG fiasco manages to achieve a shake-up of that order, even that will be a positive outcome as far as India is concerned.

Delhi Commonwealth Games: A super fiasco in making (Part II)

The sorry state of infra-structure under-preparedness for CWG Delhi 2010

Games Campuses off the schedule

The games campuses that face “high risk” of non completion include Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Aquatic Complex for the swimming event which according to the plan should have been 93% complete by June 2009. Only 40% of the work has been finished so far. Interestingly, even completion targets for the SPM aquatic complex have been reset on documents from 93% to 40% to make the dismal progress so far look good.

Training venue for athletics, swimming, weightlifting and wrestling at the games village is also lagging behind with over 40% of the work yet to be completed. Other key projects lagging behind include the Shivaji Stadium for Hockey, The Ludlow Castle hall for wrestling, The Jamia Milia Islamia university which is the venue for rugby and table tennis and Talkatora Stadium, the boxing venue. All these venues have a work shortfall up to to 50%.

The lack of concern on part of the government and organizers in meeting deadlines reflect in the way planning has been done. While the organizing committee submitted its budget for the Games in November 2005, this was approved by the Centre only in April 2007 a full one-and-a-half year later.The organization plan was finalized in August 2007, project and risk management experts appointed in March 2008 and the Games masterplan finalized in November 2008 for seeking the approval of the Commonwealth Games Federation.As per the international guidelines, all CWG projects were to be completed by May 2009 and the last year should have been kept for trial runs. Au Contraire, Delhi has started work on most of these projects around the same time leaving doubts on completion times and leaving no time absolutely for trial runs!

The all too familiar finger pointing is on as CPWD, the project executing agency, has blamed the organizing committee and its consultants for delaying the projects by constantly revising and re-revising designs for every venue. This is far from the earnest search for real answers and efforts to get things right!

Delhi Commonwealth Games: A super fiasco in making (Part I)

China demonstrated its technological and organizational prowess by the stunning spectacle that Beijing Olympics’2008. It was the testimony of China coming to age, a final seal of global approval to China. India has a similar opportunity staging the Common wealth Games in 2010, 12 months now on. However, from the looks of it, the Indian effort will probably be borne out in ignominy, embarrassment and chagrin on the world stage. CAG reported large scale under-preparedness and financial mismanagement in the CWG projects.

Earlier coverages in this blog:

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/delhis-commonwealth-tamasha.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/delhi-running-out-of-time-on.html

Key Games projects badly delayed: CAG
Projects including the main stadium design, games venues, infrastructure for conducting the sports and major city upgrade plans are running so much behind schedule that there’s a real threat of India’s showpiece games turning into a non event. In at least 13 of the 19 sporting venues, the work shortfall is between 25% to 50%. 9 out of 16 major ongoing city infrastructure projects are at high risk of failing deadline with work shortfall of 55% to 97%. All 16 running late infrastructure projects are anyways running super late.This means all these projects would either miss the deadlines or compromise on quality in haste to finish on time.

6 projects have been shelved completely given the helplessness in terms of time schedules and hopelessness in the situation delinking them from the games. CAG says the first 3 projecst were critical to the Games and would impact traffic management during the event.

1. Shastri Park tunnel corridor connecting east Delhi to north and northeast

2 Elevated east-west corridor from east Delhi to CP

3 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg flyover linking IG stadium

4 Masoodpur corridor upgrade & Mahipalpur tunnel

5 SP Mukherjee Marg corridor for easing Old Delhi railway station traffic

6 Signal-free right turn at JB Tito Marg-Siri Fort Road

Among the infrastructure projects shelved due to horrible delays, CAG says the east-west corridor, BSZ Marg flyover and the Shastri Park tunnel were critical for the Games on account of their location and that the decision to delink them would have adverse traffic management implications.

Metro constructions in Delhi have already shown cracks (literally and figuratively under the haste of meeting CWG deadlines).

Crisis @ BJP (From Bad to worse): The expulsion of Jaswant Singh

To my mind, BJP could have done without this Jaswant Singh episode. At a time, when the party is not able to come to grips with its identity in shaping India and RSS still tugs at the umbilical cord of ideology, the expulsion of Jaswant Singh who has been a BJP stalwart could be the beginning of the end of BJP. The reason of expulsion is cited as criticism of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, a BJP icon and praise of Jinnah which supposedly has irked the Sanghis and BJP leaders. Jaswant Singh had earlier criticized L K Advani for the poll debacle. The top brass in BJP are hoping that this action would serve as a warning to the deviators from the RSS-BJP ideological line.
Jaswant Singh’s book, Jinnah: India-Partition-Independence, upset the Sangh and the BJP not for its attempt to give the founder of Pakistan a flattering makeover, but for showing Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel in a poor light in the process. Allegedly, Jaswant Singh has blamed Patel for allowing the partition, backing the two nation theory and adopting a hard stand that “alienated” muslims. This is the second time someone in BJP has suffered on account of Jinnah. L K Advani lost his job as the party chief in 2005 for praising Jinnah while on a tour of Pakistan.

If the BJP was hoping to project itself as a democratic, moderate party which could accommodate differing points of view, this expulsion puts paid to all that.In an earlier post sometime back , I had written about how BJP and CPIM need to look beyond the hardline ideologies in order to stay relevant in changing times. This action goes to prove that BJP is still heavily biased by the RSS. After its electoral defeat, BJP simply is not able to get its act together. With squabbles among its leadership, BJP seems to have forgotten its duty to the country: that of holding a responsible chair of opposition. Sticking to Hindutva hardline could be a ploy with diminishing returns in the long term for the saffron party. For once it has to emerge from its Saffron mould and probably go green.

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/is-it-time-for-bjp-and-left-to-rift.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-i-lack-of-coherent.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-ii-lack-of-electoral.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-iii-lack-of.html

The virtues of a good drought!

It is now official. We are in the middle of the worst drought since independence.Ten states have declared 246 districts as drought hit. This is about 47% of the total districts in the country.Rice production is also expected to go down by 10 million tones. However India does have enough food reserves to meet any shortfall for the next 13 months. The fall in rice production works out to as much as 70% of what the country holds as buffer or emergency stock. Foodgrain demand for 2008-09 has been estimated at 219.01 million tones as against 233.88 million tonnes produced. India currently needs 7.2 million tones of Rice as buffer and has about 14.1 million tones. The current buffer for wheat is 7 million tones while the country has 15 million tones. This will help the country avoid the need to import. Congress party spokesman Janardhan Reddy has issued an advisory to the government to tackle the most important fall out of a drought season: the rise in food prices. Already, Congress has drafted a “drought-code” for its members, whereby Congress MPs, legislators and salaried officeholders will contribute 20% of their basic salary to state and central exchequer in a symbolic gesture of solidarity with those battling drought and price rise.

To a certain extent, the concerns about its impact on growth are valid but less so compared to the previous droughts: partly because agriculture accounts for much less of national income now than it did during previous droughts and partly because other sectors of the economy are less dependent on agriculture than they were earlier. The concerns are valid but are not as important for growth as they are for livelihood and food security, since at least half of India’s population still depends on agriculture for its livelihood and that is not much different from previous spells of drought.

This drought is a grim reminder of the fact that not all of boom in agriculture was driven by government policy. It is an altogether different matter that the rain gods hardly ever get credit for good monsoons. However, droughts have also presented the unique opportunity to governances in their time to innovate social solutions. Earlier droughts have now become landmark events for public policy depending on a government’s ability to convert challenges into opportunities.

The first major drought after independence was in the mid-1960s, with severe consequences for food security. But the government of the day was successful in converting the challenge into a golden opportunity. The opportunity was the green revolution and by the end of the next decade we were more or less self-sufficient in food. It was also successful in increasing irrigation on a much bigger scale than in the previous decades.

The second major public policy lesson was also a response to droughts. The much-appreciated National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) is a successor of such a policy initiative. It was the Maharashtra Employment Guarantee Scheme which was started initially as a drought relief programme that formed the basis of a unique experiment in the world to provide guaranteed employment to the rural poor.

The importance of public employment programmes was also appreciated in the 1987-88 drought, which incidentally also saw a significant reduction in rural poverty for the first time. This was ably supported by the public policy of keeping cereal prices low and providing food security to the poor.

The 2002-03 drought was again severe and manifested itself in large-scale farmer suicides, but it also exposed the limitations of credit delivery in rural areas. The rapid expansion of credit in rural areas subsequently has not been enough to correct the serious imbalances on that front but it was successful in emphasising the magnitude of the problem. But more than that, it did provide the background for emphasising the importance of public employment programmes. The result is NREGA.

So what kind of opportunity does this drought throw up? In the long run, this drought has highlighted the vulnerabilities of Indian agriculture to the seasonal monsoons, despite claims of record production in the last four years. There cannot be a better time to usher a second green revolution and create a sustainable food security environment. It is high time to take up the long-term challenge of investing in agriculture and particularly on creating long-term sustainable irrigation systems. These may not be large-scale irrigation systems alone but even small water harvesting and conservation works undertaken as part of NREGA. But, in the short run, it is the best time to strengthen NREGA and expand its scope to individual entitlement from the existing household entitlement.

This drought is also a golden opportunity to convert this challenge into a successful public policy initiative. This opportunity is the enactment of the Right to Food Act. There cannot be a better time to do this. There is already a political consensus. This is also the time when the government stocks are full of foodgrain and it is economically insulated because of high growth achieved in the previous four years. This government has the option of being remembered for having faced the worst drought since independence or being remembered for successfully fighting it by enacting the Right to Food Act.
Ref: http://www.livemint.com/2009/08/18234120/It8217s-time-for-a-New-Deal.html

Lessons from Swine Flu: Rebuilding State capacity and clamoring for administrative reforms.

Essential public services are in disarray. This is not a problem that the upper classes bothered about till now

Profiling Niranjan Rajadhyaksha commentary on the sorry state of Indian administration and its failings.

http://www.livemint.com/2009/08/11210747/Lessons-from-swine-flu.html

The swine flu scare has forced people like us to face the bitter truth: India’s public health system is an unholy mess.

The first swine flu infections have mostly been among people who are better off than the average Indian. Testing and treatment have been restricted to select public hospitals and institutes. So people who have had no reason to enter a public hospital in many years have suddenly been forced to do so. This has led to moments of epiphany.

This is a symptom of a larger problem. Essential public services are in disarray. This is not a problem that the middle and upper classes have been bothered about till now.

This column has previously cited the work of the highly original economist Albert O. Hirschman. He has argued that people respond to organizational decline in two ways: voice and exit. Voice involves attempts to engage the system and change it. Exit means opting out. There are no prizes for guessing what path the Indian elite that lives in gated communities, sends its children to private schools, never takes a bus to work and visits only swank hospitals has chosen: voice or exit?

The deterioration in governance is a problem that is rarely given its due. Bimal Jalan has been one of the few public policy experts writing and speaking about India’s governance crisis. In his book The Future of India, Jalan has cited fears expressed by reputed civil servant S. Bhoothalingam that the bureaucracy had become ossified as early as 1961, a mere 14 years after Independence. Matters have gotten worse since then.

Why does this matter? The lack of state capacity matters for issues that are more long-term than the current swine flu panic. It means that ministries and government departments are chronically unable to spend the money allocated to them in the annual budget. It means that fiscal stimulus packages focus on higher revenue expenditure rather than building new public works. It means that inefficient police and judicial systems raise the costs of doing business.

In short, the lack of state capacity is a drag on long-term economic growth.

One short-term test case of state capacity could soon be evident. India is edging close to its first drought in five years. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did well to make clear on Saturday that the big policy goal in case the monsoon does not revive is to ensure “no citizen will go hungry”. But millions who are most likely to go hungry in times of drought also happen to live in districts that have poor connectivity and poor governance. Reaching food to them will be a challenge for the food security system.

The poor live with a dysfunctional government system every day: schools where teachers rather than students play truant, public hospitals and health centres without basic equipment and local officials who do not care.

The 1 August issue of the Economic and Political Weekly has a chilling account of what happened at Khairlanji, a village in Maharashtra where a Dalit family was killed by a mob of so-called higher castes in September 2006. The official response was callous. What is particularly troubling is that “a majority of the police (and) medical officers across ranks handling the case were Dalits. But they showed a negligent attitude towards their official duties...”
Swine flu fears, the long shadow of drought and the killing of a Dalit family: each story points to the same underlying problem. The Indian state is failing in its basic duties to protect citizens, provide justice and help the poorest.

There are two lessons here. One, a lot of the debate on government programmes tends to focus on how much money is being thrown at a particular problem. Corruption is a constant. But equally important is the incapacity to use taxpayer money well and deliver basic services.
Two, a system that cannot do its basic job well enough still wants to stretch itself and do stuff that the private sector is quite capable of doing, especially running enterprises that in the case of the public sector are usually loss-making.

Jalan has this to say in The Future of India: “The burden of weak administration naturally falls mainly on the poor because of the indifference of government staff to them… The insensitivity of the administrative system to the needs of the poor, even to prevent starvation, has been confirmed by first-hand surveys and reports by journalists and non-governmental organizations.”

It has often been said that the Indian state does too little in some areas and too much in others. That is the whole point of economic reforms: A free economy can boost growth and thus provide the government with tax revenues to spend on what should be its key functions.
Administrative reforms and rebuilding of state capacity have to be important parts of this transition.

India’s own Balochistan

Pakistan has implicated India and the Karzai government in Afghanistan to be instigating civil unrest in Pakistan’s wild west: Balochistan. This is again one of the many hundred subterfuges that Pakistan has resorted to in order to veil its ineffective, inefficient governance and its inability to break the nexus between ISI, Army and the Taliban. However, we are not talking of that in this post.

I intend to bring to foreground, the dirt, dust and trash that the Indian government has been sweeping under its carpet for many many years now. This is to deal with in home Militant movements. Sample this:

1.About a month ago, India released a list of 34 militant bodies who it had banned. At that number, India had the largest number of doemstic terror groups. Read: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India/India-has-largest-number-of-domestic-terror-groups/articleshow/4694618.cms
2.The Naxalite movements in Lalgarh in West Bengal and Chattisgarh have hogged the limelight in terms of the violence, killing for sometime now.
Read: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India/Op-Lalgarh-was-waiting-to-happen/articleshow/4664991.cms; http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/12-policemen-killed-in-Naxal-blast-in-Chhattisgarh/articleshow/4510576.cms
3.Naxalite movements are yet again on the up in many more states. Read: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-2494458,prtpage-1.cms
4.A considerable portion of our army is battling this in-home terror movement and the resources going waste are enormous.

My tours and travels have taken me around India and it is disconcerting how one part of India is so different/complete opposite from another part. This was the realization between glasses of Vodka at Hotel Hindustan International in Kolkata. Lalgarh was burning 180kms away from where I was sitting. Elsewhere, North Eastern states, have private militias and governments, which refuse to accept that they are the part of the Indian Republic. Private companies, which work in such areas exercise extreme caution in business and are frequently subjected to ransom demands. I have known such instances to happen. Bombs and deaths are commonplace. Travelling east of Guwahati and Jorhat is a peril that you and I can ill afford. Local police is inadequately armed against the AK 47s/56s brandished by these militants.

North Eastern states are to India what Balochistan is to Pakistan.
Corruption, under development, mis-management, bad governance and economic under development stoke the fire of hatred. The gun that fires is obtained from destabilizing external forces and yet the hand that fires it is Indian. An Indian neglected so long, he does-not care to be called one. Anti-terror tactics is good, but this has to be complemented by an all inclusive growth plan. Good governance is good economics and it is time that people from these neglected corners are given a better deal.

The virtues of Swine Flu

The death of 14 year old Reeda Sheikh has been a rude awakener for the lax health care and government officials. The emergency mode has now been activated meaning that a few hospitals, doctors and quarantine sectors have been put up in a jiffy and news channels are constantly blaring smallest tit-bits about Swine Flu and the H1N1 virus.Yet again, we seem to have missed the point. In hackneyed words, we are still treating the diseased and not the disease. We are still curing the outbreak instead of preventing it. As a nation we are woefully short of a plan, a policy to handle such outbreaks.

For starters, lets put up with two facts: Swine Flu is spreading fast. However, it is treatable. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome had a mortality rate 15 times that of swine flu. The Flu’s death rate estimate is 1%. Health officials point out that many more die from regular flu.

However a proper response to pandemic or in imagined worst case scenario of Bioterrorism is still missing. Widespread closures, isolation, quarantines are ineffective and impractical. It does-not solve the problem and instead ends up hurting the economic engine.

The focus of the health care systems in India would have to be:
1.Testing and Early detection: It would need to open emergency testing sites outside/away hospital areas with the equipment and manpower to administer early detection. Doing it away from the regular hospitals is imperative, to dis-allow infections to spread through people who already have medical complications.
2.Adequate stockpiles of drugs necessary to treat the virus strain are necessary.
3.Complete treatment should be taken up to prevent mutations of the strain which could render the present medications ineffective.
4.The mass media channels spread more mis-information than information. The government and the health care officials would have to tap this media to educate and disseminate information within the people.
5.One needs a SOP, disaster management system and a properly documented process documented on “how to” deal with such pandemics. This would categorize the “class” of the outbreak and who/how to mobilize support in face of such outbreaks.

Thus, in the whole, Swine Flu should serve as a template for the government to check on its emergency response systems to such outbreaks.

Web 2.0: How it is culturally influencing the growth of India

A recent nationwide survey of Urban students has some sharp revelations. Going by the trends suggested in this survey, India will emerge as a Internet super power sooner than expected. Urban students are digital natives, reveals the TCS Generation Web 2.0 survey.
Looks like the dawn of the new Indian

Highlights:

1. 63 per cent of urban students spend over an hour online daily
   
2. 93 per cent are aware of social networking
   
3. Orkut and Facebook are most popular online destinations
   
4. 46 per cent use online sources to access news; TV, newspaper users at 25 per cent
   
5. 62 per cent have a personal computer at home
   
6. 1 in 4 students own laptops in metros;
   
7. 2 of 3 own music players
   
8. IT and engineering remain overwhelming popular career choices
   
9. Media and Entertainment, Travel and Tourism are emerging careers
   
10. USA, UK top list of international destinations for higher studies Mumbai
    

A new survey of India’s school children shows that ”The Web 2.0 Generation” are digital natives, with high technology savvy, global in terms of aspirations and outlook as well as being increasingly optimistic about India’s economic future. The survey, conducted by India’s largest IT solutions provider Tata Consultancy Services, is among the largest youth surveys in India, and was conducted across 14,000 high-school children between the ages of 12-18 in 12 cities across India during 2008-09.

“Nearly one out of 10 people on the planet are under 25 years old and living in India. That is the significance of India’s next generation and what they do, think and aspire to hold insights for all those who aim to engage with this Web 2.0 Generation,” said S Ramadorai, CEO and MD, TCS. “The TCS Generation Web 2.0 survey confirms that today’s students are shifting their academic and social life online and embracing the digital world as true digital natives. This societal trend has important implications for parents, educators, policy makers, as future employers as well as companies and brands that want to sell to tomorrow’s generation.”

Mr Ramadorai added, “The Web 2.0 Generation will shape the next phase of India’s growth and success. What this group does and how it interacts with others, its interests and aspiration need to be considered as we all plan for the future. TCS plans to use some of the findings to understand the next generation better and it will help us not just to find the best potential employees for the future, but also guide us to engage and communicate with them more effectively.”

The TCS Generation Web 2.0 survey, conducted for the first time in 2008-09, highlights that urban school children in the metros and mini-metros are immersed online and have the technology at hand to access information through the net at all times. Over 80 per cent have access to mobile phones, find time for the internet alongside school, classes and extracurricular activities, and are starting to embrace Web 2.0 tools like blogs and social networking sites.
The desire to study abroad cuts across students nationwide with USA being the most preferred destination with nearly 40 per cent preferring to study there. For some students, physical proximity plays a part in the choice of overseas education destination, especially in the mini-metros. Singapore and Dubai are preferred by one in five students in Chennai and Cochin respectively as top choice for overseas education.

At a relatively young age, India’s urban students are thinking about travel, learning new skills, experience and salary as when they consider future careers.

TCS has identified the youth in four categories -

1. The Globetrotter: Today’s students continue to express a strong desire to be mobile like previous generations. The Globetrotter has global ambitions and wants to study and work abroad. However, a growing confidence in the economic future in India is also reflected in the survey as many students, though keen to study abroad and gain global exposure, are also keen to bring skills back to India and put them to use here.
   
2. The Gadgetphile: Students from both metros and mini-metros who love gadgets and aspire to have the latest products available. The i-Pod Indian is more likely to be found with access to a web-enabled mobile, the latest gaming console, i-Pods and if he/she doesn’t have one, then aspires to own an i-Phone.
   
3. The Nation-builder: The Indian student is focused on his/her career but is as much interested in the additional benefits that careers brings, such as travel, learning new skills, experience to be gained, interesting workplace, and salary. This Career Kid is also starting to branch out of the traditional career choices and going for some new options like gaming and animation. The Nation-Builder is optimistic about Indian companies and favours them over the most popular international MNCs. The Social
   
4. Networker: A true digital native, the Social Networker is likely to have as many online friends as real ones and these friendships go beyond the traditional boundaries of gender, caste, and geographies. The Social Youth communicates with anyone and everyone as long as they have the same interests. This child could mark the start of a new democracy where he/she reaches out to more people through social networks and is likely to be more socially active, willing to gather other like-minded youths or even form social network parties.

Pakistan sees India when they see SWAT

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124823898093171403.html
What goes around comes around. A fundamental learning that Pakistan seems to have forgotten as they allege “Indian Links” to militant activities in their country. Reproducing Mathew Rosenburg article in Wall Street Journal: Pakistan sees India when they see WSJ.

Surrounded by aides and fellow officers, a large map propped up behind him, Maj. Gen. Sajjad Ghani lays out the battle plan for Pakistan's Swat Valley. He details how the Pakistani army swept in from the south and north in a "double pincer." He motions his pointer at the towns and villages where the fighting was fiercest and explains how the militants eventually melted away in the face overwhelming firepower.

Most of this is a well-worn narrative of the battle for Swat until Gen. Ghani, the commander of the northern half of the valley, turns to the alleged Indian role in the fighting.The Taliban, he explains, is "being directed, commanded and controlled by some of our hostile intelligence agencies being controlled by our neighboring country."

In case you didn't get it, that's code for India. And he doesn't stop there. He calls the town of Matta, a major Taliban stronghold in Swat, the "Benares of terrorism," using the old name of Hinduism's holiest city, Varanasi.

To outsiders, such comments are easily dismissed as the unscripted remarks of a conspiracy-minded soldier who has spent a lifetime preparing to fight his country's larger and more powerful rival.

But spend enough time in Pakistan, and you'll hear it expressed over and over again by everyone from street-side tea vendors to university students to senior officials. Most who offer up the theory seem to genuinely believe it. They see the Taliban's advance in Pakistan as part of a larger Indian conspiracy to encircle the country by building ties to the U.S. and Afghanistan, never mind that the Taliban is fighting U.S. and Afghan forces.

"Some circles believe that the Indian consuls in Afghanistan, fully supported by the U.S., are creating mayhem and sabotaging peace in Pakistan," wrote the Daily Express, an Urdu-lanaguage newspaper, in a June 30 editorial. "The Pakistani army should come down hard on anyone who is playing in the hands of foreign powers, including Baitullah Mehsud," the nominal leader of the Pakistan Taliban.

Rarely is any evidence proffered or India directly named. The comments usually come off as ham-handed attempts to deflect from Pakistan's own failures, as India itself often is quick to blame a "foreign hand" in atrocities before there has even been time to gather evidence. (Sometimes, of course, the foreign hand is at play – witness Mohammed Ajmal Kasab's confession Monday in Mumbai.)

Ironically, Pakistan's blaming India for its problems in Swat may actually, and unintentionally, have served a useful purpose in the broader anti-Taliban push. The idea that fighting the Taliban is tantamount to fighting India appears to have helped drive a massive turnaround in Pakistani public opinion, giving the government and the army the backing it needs to aggressively fight the militants.

"We've externalized an internal problem," says a senior Pakistani official who's often been critical of the government's ambiguous relationship with Pakistan's myriad Islamist militant groups.
The official doesn't believe predominately Hindu India is backing one of the world's fiercest Islamist movements, calling the suggestion "nonsense." And he says there's no organized effort to paint the Taliban as India's proxy even though many officials and generals "really believe it."
Still, "it's helped at a time when we really need the help," he says.

Some of the shift in public sentiment away from the peace accord with the Taliban signed in February undoubtedly is due to the Taliban's brutal rule of Swat. One widely circulated video showed the militants flogging a teenage girl accused of having an improper relationship with a man.

The Taliban also began to move into neighboring districts, raising alarms among Pakistan's urban middle and upper classes, some of whom sympathize with the Taliban but few of whom want to actually be ruled by the militants.

But anti-India sentiment has clearly played a role in rallying the Pakistani public and, perhaps more important, the deeply nationalistic military to support a broad anti-Taliban offensive. Such sentiment, however, also suggests that Pakistan won't lead a full-scale clampdown on all the country's myriad Islamist militant groups, many of which had long been used by Pakistan as proxies in Afghanistan and India's part of Kashmir. It's not all Islamist militants that are the problem, the thinking goes, just those being used by our enemies.

That helps explain why many Pakistanis opposed the Taliban in Pakistan yet at the same time support, to some degree, the Afghan Taliban, which is seen as distinct. It also explains why the Afghan Taliban and its allies still rely on safe havens on the Pakistani side of the border.
In fact, ask a Pakistani civilian or military official what the biggest problem in the region is, and only the rare few tell you it's the Taliban. Most say it's the presence of U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces next door.

Now is the time for Economics 2.0.

Economics, the way we know it must change. For 200 years and more after Adam Smith propounded the first theories of Economics, there may be a need to look beyond them. For the last 2 centuries, Economics as a science has been used to describe effort, need, productivity and transactions both at an individual and a national/global scale and this is still gaining relevance. Economic indicators have also often been the benchmark to imply societal development. It is not uncommon that a nation with higher per capita income is more developed and prosperous or the largest GDP states are the most advanced. However, in view of a few more variables today, the meanings of human/social development have become more complex than the economic constructs.

Two most important variables apart from transactional economics are:
· Effect of Climate change
· Holistic societal development

Economics discounts Climate and Environmental Factors
Widespread environmental changes will significantly alter the course of human history going forward. These changes pose clear and present danger in front of the states, citizens and their economies. Emissions and pollutant discharge are a direct function of the level of industrialization of economies. While it isn’t possible switching off the growth engines of the economy, the switch-over to environmentally safe and renewable energy sources will take another 20/30 years to take shape and have an impact. Reducing Carbon footprint is till now a very low scale exercise. Over and above this, is the debate on reduction of emissions in developed versus developing states.

Developmental economics or the present indices do not measure the impact of growth on environmental resources. Thus, the growth today can lead to environmental, climatic or socio economic risks tomorrow. The concept of GDP or economics based measurement is thus a failure in this regard.

Economics discounts parameters of Human and Societal development
Inequities within societies and states have existed forever in history, The current economics do not measure societal development parameters like pure water availability, food security, literacy and education, Infant Mortality rates and Child malnutrition and various other parameters. Economic development has been associated with resource exploitation. The best case in point is Oil, the lifeline of modern day economics.

The point of engaging economics, environment and human developmental issues is to hence build sustainability of progress and spread the fruits of development amongst people and states. There is a need to radically rethink Economics to address these grave issues.

Tongue in Cheek: India's Hungry Millions

The National family health survey (2006) confirmed that the child malnutrition rate in India is 46%, almost double that of Sub Saharan Africa. India, which is the world’s second fastest growing economy is ranked 66 out of 88 on the Global Hunger Index (2008) by the International Food Policy Research Institute below Sudan, Nigeria and Cameroon and slightly above Bangladesh.

Obama's Policy making: Of Double speak and Duplicity

There are serious chinks in Obama’s bid to non-proliferate the world. In fact from a no nonsense perspective, Obama’s administration seems to indulge in double speak and double standards. On one hand, his “eager” attempts to cut down the nuclear arsenal of US and Russia are quarter baked. Even if the suggested reduction of strategic nuclear warheads happens, there is enough that is left (three quarters) to smoke out each other and the world several times over!

On the other hand US’s move into the G8 to deny enrichment and reprocessing facilities to India as a non signatory to NPT is a key deterrent to the issue of Climate change. This is expected to figure in Secretary of state Hillary’s visit to New Delhi soon.

From the Indian perspective, reprocessing of spent fuel is imperative if India were to proceed with the indigenous, three stage, Thorium based Nuclear powered energy programme. Denial of re-processing facilties will slow down India’s nuclear power programme, inhibiting India-US cooperation on nuclear power and not exactly serving the cause of replacing polluting hydro-carbons with clean nuclear energy. Sadly, itwould also undermine the letter and the spirit of the October 2008 123 agreement and the “clean waiver” that the nuclear suppliers group accorded to India.

Cold wind from Washington

The Obama administration has to realize that there is a crucial difference between the Cold War-type relations that the US is accustomed to making, and dealing with India. Re-producing an article profiling the Indo US relations in the current context. http://www.livemint.com/2009/07/16213824/Cold-wind-from-Washington.html

After the last eight years of warmth and friendship, Indo-US relations are heading towards the thermidor, unless, of course, corrective action is taken soon. Given the current posture of the Barack Obama administration this appears unlikely, though it cannot be ruled out. As US secretary of state Hillary Clinton begins her India visit, she should bear this in mind in her engagement with Indian leaders.

The why of the sudden decline in warmth is a complicated story, one that is linked to domestic US politics (such as the efforts to wipe clean the legacy of George Bush Jr) and the world view of the Democratic Party. This need not detain us: What is important are the visible, if not glaring, signs of trouble. Here is a sampler:

The why of the sudden decline in warmth is a complicated story, one that is linked to domestic US politics (such as the efforts to wipe clean the legacy of George Bush Jr) and the world view of the Democratic Party. This need not detain us: What is important are the visible, if not glaring, signs of trouble. Here is a sampler:

l. US efforts to undo the gains made by India under the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement. A recent example is the G-8 resolution aimed at tightening the spread of nuclear enrichment and reprocessing technologies. This was moved at the behest of the US and was aimed at India. This has the potential to damage relations as nothing else can.
2.US pressure, in concert with that from the European Union, to make India adhere to binding greenhouse gas emission targets. While such pressure is being exerted on India, there is silence on providing India with climate change effect mitigation technologies and financial help.
3.Efforts at “rehyphenation” with Pakistan and goading India into meaningless talks with the latter. That is not all: Under Pakistani influence, the US nearly made Kashmir a part of special envoy Richard Holbrooke’s mandate. It was only Indian lobbying (of “Israeli proportions”, as one commentator put it) that made the US back off. It also is against India building a durable presence in Kabul though Indian efforts are aimed at helping Afghans rebuild their country.

The Obama administration has to realize that there is a crucial difference between the Cold War-type relations that the US is accustomed to making, and dealing with India: workable in good times and disposable in bad situations (two good examples being Pakistan and Indonesia). India is not in that class of nations, nor is it an age in which Washington can bend nations in that manner.

Here it is pertinent to add that India is not victim to blind anti-Americanism of the kind that afflicts Third World countries. If the relationship has to move ahead, it has to be on realistic lines. Friendship has little meaning when one partner is actively trying to subvert the interests of the other

Parched and Powerless: New Delhi’s sad story

The DJB and the BSES cut a very sorry figure in terms of provisioning and governance of two very valuable resources, Water and Electricity.

From the water perspective, Delhi faces 400 MGD shortage despite getting the maximum supply ever. Delhi receives 830 MGD (Million Gallons per Day) water, the highest ever and yet the DJB quotes the demand supply gap to be 40 MGD (Supply figures quoted at 830 MGD) Ironically enough, the 830 MGD supply equals 274 litres per capita per day, which is 50% higher than the recommendations of the central public health and environmental engineering organization recommendations of 172 litres per capita per day.

The problems arise due to losses from leakages; about 45% is lost in distribution and transmission. The DJB is seeking to replace a large part of the distribution lines to curtail such losses.
Inequitable distribution and lack in storage capacity are other issues plaguing the water availabilities. Underground reservoirs have been commissioned, which once functional will ease up the distribution.
Lack of proper water supply is resulting in rapid depletion of the groundwater resources.
DJB has also not been able to plan as per the rapid population expansion, which raises a question on its capabilities to deliver as per the plan.
In absence of rain water harvesting solutions, 40000 MGD of water during monsoons is wasted in Delhi! Out of 53 rain water reservoirs sanctioned to the capital in 2000, only 24 have been commissioned, 10 will be commissioned in 2010 12 next year and work is yet to begin on 7 more.

Elsewhere, in power, Delhi has added only 230 MW extra power capacity in 7 years where as the demand of power is up 1100 MW. Delhi only produces 17% of the power it consumes and the last significant addition to production capacity in Delhi was in 2002, with 4 projects in the pipeline with the earliest date of commissioning to be next year. This is in-spite of the fact that the annual increase in demand is about 10 – 15%. Result is a 1040 MW shortfall against a demand of 4171 MW. The load sheddings in June 2009 have been 28.5 million units, which are a 400% increment over the June 2008’s 6.7 million units.

A small price the city commuters are having to pay for the lack of power are traffic jams triggered by non functional traffic signals. There is no back up power from inverters aggravating the chaos that is Delhi.

Tongue in Cheek: Mayawati's Maya

State of affairs in the Uttar Pradesh .. following the statue scam.

Liberhan commission report and its impact on the BJP

It took the Liberhan commission 17 years, 100 witnesses, 399 sittings, 48 extensions and 9 crores to floor its report on the Babri Masjid demolition. It could not have come at a more worse time for BJP. Already under seizure and disarray for its electoral debacle, and under acute identity crisis seeking to re-define its fundamentals from a right wing hardcore Hindutva base to a more relevant pedestal, the findings could push them a little closer to tatters. As a part of its strategy, Congress would use this as its knock out punch for the down and beaten BJP. The list of accused include L K Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti, Sadhvi Rithambra, Ashok Singhal and more. Is this then the death of BJP?

I would view this knock out as a opportunity for BJP to clean up its tainted past, cut its umbilical cords with Hindutva and the Sangh, refresh its leadership completely, review its own partners and part ways with dubious ones and resurrect itself from its core. BJP has some good results to show in terms of its efforts for business and economic development (remember Vajpayee’s Golden Quadrilateal or Modi’s Gujarat) and it has to build these platforms to showcase its stand for progress, development and prosperity. This probably is the nadir in BJP’s political history. It runs the risk of disintegrating and collapsing totally or it can resurrect itself from the shadows of the past. I hope for the later. Politically, India needs BJP as an right wing moderate alternative against the Congress.

Ref:

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/is-it-time-for-bjp-and-left-to-rift.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-iii-lack-of.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-ii-lack-of-electoral.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-i-lack-of-coherent.html

Tongue in Cheek: The Chinese Green Dam Parody

Green Dam Software
The be-all and end-all of Chinese internet censorship effort, is the Green Dam software.Green Dam software is intended to stamp out Internet pornography, and computer companies had originally been told that from Wednesday they had to bundle "Green Dam" with all personal computers heading to stores for sale.

However, the seriousness of the effort was lost, when the Green Dam barred popular cartoon Garfield, Johny Depp and other innocent images. The reason was attributed to the deep orange colour of the images, which is screened by the software (Due to similarity with Nudes). Interestingly once the filter is turned off on the computer, graphic sexual images can also be downloaded.

It happens only in India

45000 out of an estimated 85000 registered as MCD (Municipal Commission Delhi) employees are fake/not traceable. The estimated numbers of the “missing” is still a riddle but the numbers could be double than present estimates. How or why could such a brazen act of corruption is best left to state investigations. But a correction and weeding out could lead to a saving of Rs.500 to 1000 crore annual saving on a Rs.207 crore monthly wage bill.

Elsewhere, the dalit poster girl, behen Mayawati has embarked on a Rs.2681 crore project to have herself, her mentor, Kanshiram, Baba Saheb Ambedkar sculpted in stone and beautify Lucknow city. The plan involves 45 red stone statues, 60 elephant statues and 413 acres of prime land in Lucknow. The annual cost of maintenance is expected to be Rs.270 crore. All this, when the largest population of people below the poverty line – 59 million belong to UP. This money could have wiped out poverty of thousands of people, provided education and amenties to more.

Food security bill, which is under discussion currently, and is expected to provide upto 25 kgs of grains per month to BPL households at a subsidized rate of Rs.3/kg has come up for some execution challenges. The planning commission’s stidy of 2005 shows that roughly 58% of grains issued from the RDS do not reach BPL families due to problems ranging from targeting errors to corruption all along the chain. Worse, there is a no standard in defining and identifying a BPL Family. Planning Commission puts the number of BPL families at 65.9 million, BPL cards issued by states is 107 million and a second and more recent estimate by the planning commission puts this number at 66 million.

So much for accountability and misuse of public funds in the country.

India: A worrisome fiscal situation

A very important part of populist measures of the incumbent government is to provide equal earning and job opportunities to all. Towards this, the National Rural Employment guarantee scheme (NREGS) is a tool for equitable employment and pay disbursals. However a bad monsoon can turn this tool into a fiscal nightmare. A bad monsoon will ensure that the number of people seeking jobs under NREGS will swell. Being an entitlement based programme, the government has to give employment to anyone who demands it. Recently it announced that a further Rs.9000 crore would be spent under NREGS, taking the total expected spending under it in fiscal 2009 to Rs.39000 crore. That was when the effect of Monsoons were not taken into consideration. With this new exigency in horizon, the NREGS spends may be spiraling out of control. A substantial portion of the fiscal deficit was due to budgeting of expenditures for farm loan waivers and expenditure under NREGS.

Already the economic slowdown and the threat of fiscal deficit hitting the double digits is likely to limit the UPA government from unleashing it full deck of “Aam Aadmi” agenda. Increasing the budgetary spending is only possible when the economy recovers on the path to 8 – 9% growth rate.

In February, the government had set a fiscal deficit target of 5.5% of GDP for 2009-10 but increased its borrowing target to Rs.3.62 trillion from Rs.3.05 trillion last year.
In the first month of the fiscal year, the government already achieved 16% of its fiscal deficit target. The reduction in excise tax by 6% as a part of stimulus package and the Food Security act (which provides food-grains @ Rs.3 per KG to below poverty line beneficiaries) is expected to hit the state coffers.With an expected shortfall of Rs.26000 crore in tax collections and an increased expenditure of Rs.24000 crores (Not counting in the impact of late Monsoons), the Fiscal deficit may be grim, very grim.

Tongue in Cheek: Plutonomy

Plutonomy: Coined by Ajay Kapur, Citigroup’s global strategist in 2006, the term denotes an economy that derives its strength from the assured consumption of the super rich.

Tongue in Cheek: Energy estimates in the world

Research by Harvard University suggests, that the world’s conventional oil and gas alone contains 1000 terawatts worth of energy; coal has 5000, the amount of solar energy falling on earth every year is 30000; and our total current use worldwide is only 15 terawatts-years per year. The trick, of course, is in converting this potential into actual available energy.

Tongue in Cheek:Global loss in wealth due to Financial Meltdown

The world wealth report (June 2009) released by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini estimates a damage of $8 trillion (Rs. 388 trillion) due to the financial meltdown of the world economy in 2008.

India and China: Growth Construct

The return of global liquidity is a welcome sign in the recession and downturn strife economies of the world. Amidst the recoveries, India and China have been the earlier ones (alongside Russia and Brazil). The economy growth patterns and road maps of both the economies have been diametrically opposite. While China’s growth has been a function of the demand in consumer markets in the west and its export surplus, the Indian market is domestic demand led. The liquidity crisis affected both these economies in different manners: For China it reduced the export demand and for India, it reduced the external funding and investments.

Two interesting studies, one by Morgan Stanley and the other by World Bank seem to indicate the return of liquidity will benefit India more than China as India and China will pare off in growth rates with India nudging ahead of China.

Even more interesting is Morgan Stanley’s prediction of annual GDP growth for the period 2011-15. While India’s GDP growth under the baseline scenario during these years is predicted to be 7.5% per annum, China’s too is pegged at 7.5%. Similarly, under the bullish scenario, both Indian and Chinese growth during 2011-15 is forecast to be 9% per annum. But in the bear scenario, India is expected to do even better than China, growing at 6.3% compared with China’s 6%.

Even the world bank in a report released on 22nd June ,2009 forecasts that India’s GDP growth in 2010, at 8%, will be higher than China’s growth rate of 7.5% that year. Further, in 2011, both India and China are expected to grow at the same 8.5% rate.

The Tiger is for the first time looking to outrun the Dragon. So, what could be the reason of the Indian Surge/Chinese Slowdown?

China is more exposed to the vagaries of the world market because of its high trade intensity. A Japan style secular slowdown in the US and Europe over the next decade will hurt China more than India unless China moved beyond its admittedly successful mercantilism.
The FDI boom in China since the mid 90s pushed its investment rate, enabled technology transfer and plugged the nation into global supply chains. All this took China closer to the global efficiency frontier, but it now seems that diminishing returns are setting in.
Future growth in China will have to depend on domestic demand and local innovation, which means China will have to change its growth model.
The fast ageing Chinese society will increase the dependency ratios and social costs.
Concern arises from the fact that growth in China will taper off once the push from the Chinese stimulus package runs out of steam and its loan push slow.(In the chart, China’s GDP growth spurts in initial quarters as the result of the stimulus but decelerates as the effect dissipates)
Cost based Chinese manufacturing may be over-rated. Albert Edwards, global strategist  at  Societe Generale, writes: “Most areas in the markets have now discounted a V-shaped recovery. Any doubt will trigger a rapid reversal in prices. I continue to be extremely sceptical and see recent events as part of a 1930s-like long march to revulsion. Talking about long marches, nowhere in the world fills me with more scepticism than the Chinese economic recovery. The continued enthusiasm for all things Chinese reminds me so much of the way investors were almost totally blind to the fact that the US growth miracle was built on sand. China could be the biggest disappointment yet.”

The challenges that both these economies will stand up to fuel their growth stories are again very diverse:
For China, it will be a transition to domestic led growth
For India, it is going to be building infrastructure and its fiscal woes (owing to a bad governance and the quality of national leadership)

Reference:

Catching up with China on Fast Growth Track:

http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/24001454/Catching-up-with-China-on-fast.html?h=B

Can India run ahead of China

http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/24221512/Can-India-run-ahead-of-China.html

Tongue in Cheek: The cost of Climate change

ADB in a recent report on the economics of climate change in South East Asia has indicated that the cost of adverse impacts of climate changes would be 6% to 7% of Southeast Asia’s income each year by the end of the century.

Tongue in Cheek: Asia and Global Warming

Developing Asia already accounts for one third of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is expected to increase this contribution to 40% by 2030,making it the main driver of global warming.

Will Monsoons spook Economic Growth away?

The biggest driver of Indian Economy numbers through the downturn was a bouyant domestic demand. This helped it tide over the economic doom better than most of the countries around the world. However, the spectre of a bad monsoon actually is more insidious to the Indian economy than anything else. And this is one threat the Indian economy is somewhat less prepared to coast over.

The crisis
World Meterological organization warns of greater than average chance of El Nino thus having profound impact on the Indian Monsoons. As it stands, the Indian Monsoon has barely progressed in the last two weeks (2nd/3rd week June).The annual June-September monsoon generates nearly 80% of the annual rainfall over the country and is vital for the economy, being the main source of water for agriculture, which accounts for around 17% of India’s gross domestic product (GDP). Other than the 60% of the country’s workforce that depends on agriculture, the rains are also important for traders dealing in food and cash crops.As of 17th June, the latest estimate shows a 45% shortfall in rainfall.28 out of 36 meterological sub divisions have recorded scanty rainfall as against 4 divisions last year. Read Could El Nino dry up the economy's green shoots? http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/08003141/Could-El-Nino-dry-up-the-econo.html?d=1

The Reason
A full fledged El Nino was only expected around August, commented Mr. Madhavan Rajeevan, meteorologist at ISRO.The only ray of hope is the fact that not all El Ninos are bad: 1997 El Nino led to excess rainfall. 2002 and 2004 El Ninos associated with severe droughts. However statistics favours El Ninos association with droughts: Between 1880 and 2006, 12 out of 18 El Ninos have corresponded with drought like conditions/below normal rainfall.

The Impact
Drought is the most eminent risk of the El Nino fall out with Khariff crops being at risk.Technically speaking a Rainfall deficiency of 10% or more is defined as a drought. Since, 55-60% of the Khariff crop is dependent on Monsoon, a small variation in the rainfall totals can impact the crop very adversely, There has been a drastic dip in water reservoir levels across several states. In nearly 80 national reservoirs, the water stored is 1/3rd less compared with the same time last year.and if not replenished during monsoons, irrigation water will be deficient, because drinking water needs would come first.

Long Term Damage and Control
The current year’s monsoon is considered to be crucial for the economy as buoyant rural consumption has been a key driver of growth amid an economic downturn (read http://www.livemint.com/2009/04/17234039/Monsoon-booster-for-rural-dema.html?d=1). While the country has sufficient food stocks to tide over any crisis this year, the macro economic pressure is expected to accrue on account of food price inflation.

In Orissa, Industries have been asked to cut down their production levels, because of low reservoir levels resulting in low electricity generation. Power deficit levels are expected to be 20 – 30%, even in a power surplus state like Orissa. Elsewhere in Chattisgarh, the Government has already purchased and stored 370,000 tonnes of rice and is ready to procure rice from outside as well. Madhya Pradesh is worst off in terms of reservoir crisis. Reservoirs which were full last year, are all running empty.

A shortfall in rainfall could also impact the power generation in the country. Agricultural demand for power would go up and power availability from hydroelectric projects would come down. This would impact the power supply position in the country.

Source: Truant rains could nix nascent recovery: http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/22235043/Truant-rains-could-nix-nascent.html?pg=1

Also Read: Changing Monsoon trends: http://www.livemint.com/2009/04/30222403/Changing-monsoon-trend-forces.html?d=1

http://www.livemint.com/2009/05/25092131/Monsoon-hits-Indian-coast-ear.html?d=1

Tongue in Cheek: What a waste!

A new section in Newspaper Posts, Tongue In Cheek, is about interesting facts and annecdotes concerning the world around us. Your comments as always are welcome.

Approximately 40% of the farm produce (Fruits and Vegetables) in India is wasted in the absence of organized cold chain network in the country.

New Tools, new approaches

An excellent article reproduced from Mint's article on comparison on collaborative growth (Chinese approach) versus Inclusive growth (Indian Approach) by S Narayan (former finance secretary and economic adviser to the government).http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/21203159/New-tools-new-approaches.html?h=D

China is focusing on massive infrastructure investment--less than 40% of this is from its central budget

There is a quiet in the corridors of government, and people in the know attribute it to ministries getting down to serious work. There is evidence of cleaning up in several ministries, with changes in the higher echelons of bureaucracy and a revamp of the personal staff of some ministers. The Budget is only a couple of weeks away, and the big companies are making effective use of the media to lobby their requests for tax breaks and tariff reductions. There has been a very good article by Narayana Murthy of Infosys that recommends downplaying the Budget into a revenue-balancing exercise and focusing on deliverables and programmes.

The Prime Minister has made it clear that he wants growth back to double digits, and the good news is that inflation is also falling. There is sufficient liquidity in the system, and there are investors willing to back the equity markets. The poor monsoon is cause for worry, but many financial firms are upgrading India’s 2009 growth prospects.

Financial investment firms upgraded prospects for China as well, based on the financial stimulus packages announced by that government. China has just announced $20 billion loan assistance to Russia, clearly indicating its financial superiority. It is interesting to compare the policy approach for stimulus used by China with that in India. The (Chinese) approach followed has been to focus on a massive infrastructure investment programme of half a trillion dollars. Interestingly, less than 40% of this is from the Chinese central budget—the local governments have been asked to find the balance and to implement the programmes. Banks have been asked to lend to provincial governments for this purpose, and liquidity infusion into the economy is through credit for infrastructure projects. There is, thus, an incentive for provincial governments to take up and implement long-needed projects, and the financial wherewithal to do it. Implementation is monitored through a simple incentive—governors who do well will be rewarded in the party hierarchy; others will not. Among the more important programmes is environment—cleaning waterways, urban waste management and water supply.

Let us compare this with the policy pronouncements made in the President’s address and in the Prime Minister’s letter to his cabinet colleagues. The focus is on “inclusive growth” that would be achieved by extension of the National Rural Employment Guarantee (NREG) programme, an Act to mandate food security—an extension of the NREG programme to urban areas, and liquidity infusion is through bank lending for the private sector and directed lending for agriculture. In short, while increases in liquidity are being targeted in China for the construction of infrastructure and the provision of improved services to citizens, in India it is being used for social welfare programmes and assisting the private sector. We could have done what China is doing, as we have a huge publicly owned banking system, and a federal structure that can reach to state governments and all major cities. Just imagine the benefits if the government had announced a major infrastructure programme in every major town over a one-million population, and left it to the local bodies to implement it, within technical and quality parameters laid down nationally—we would have our cities cleaned up and liveable in five years!

In the rural sector as well, something different is possible rather than granting agricultural loans and writing them off, leaving the farmer no better off. In investment terms, when banks give an agricultural loan, they are “long” on the crop— volume and prices, until the crop is ready. This is a financial risk taken by banks without adequate cover, given the volatility of crop yields and prices and the vagaries of the monsoon. This is the real subprime that hits bank balance sheets and government finances year after year. It should be easy to provide instruments in the markets where this risk could be mitigated by a vibrant spot and futures market of products. If agricultural produce could be stored and quality tested, then the receipts become marketable, with assured delivery at the end of the contract. From this, it is easy to develop futures and options that will mitigate risk. In effect, the bank lending for agriculture can continue, and the market would mitigate the risks of this lending through price and volume discovery that is transparent. Farmers would be benefited through a clear price for their products, middlemen would disappear, bank risk would be mitigated, and government interventions avoided. All that is needed is to create state-specific exchanges where such transactions can take place under the state regulators (under the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act), and encourage farmers to participate.

It is important to think of new approaches. The pattern of programmes outlined by the government is a revisit of the rural development and poverty alleviation programmes of the past several decades, without any attempt to learn from their failures or think in terms of the new, young, urbanizing population of today. The needs of the people, as well as their aspirations, have changed and perhaps we should use the new tools at our disposal in the financial and services sectors to deliver what the citizen expects.

Tongue in Cheek:Twitter ( 6 going to 18)

A new section in Newspaper Posts, Tongue In Cheek, is about interesting facts and annecdotes concerning the world around us. Your comments as always are welcome.

Twitter has roughly 6 million users and is projected to grow to 18.1 million users by 2010. The next Black Swan in making?

Is it Time for BJP and Left to rift away from its ideological twins?

Post the general elections, the BJP camp has been a veritable mess with accusations and counter accusations flying thick and high. While many theories are going around on the reasons of loss of stature of BJP, my personal belief is BJP lost because of its inadequate agenda. BJP failed to count on their noteworthy successes in governance and fell back on the Hindutva ideology. This has to do with the roots of BJP which are firmly grounded in the RSS and the “Sangh” which are fundamentalist Hindu by nature. Taking the Hindutva platform alienated the BJP from the minorities and the cause was not helped by the Gujarat Muslim pogroms and the Kandahar Christian massacres. Ultimately, the uncharismatic Advani tried to balance the image of a progressive BJP, with its plans for India and the radical Hindu beliefs of its parent, the RSS. The rest is history (as the word goes)

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ringsideview/entry/how_bjp_lost_the_plot
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/clicklit/entry/leave-hindutva-bjp-left-it
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/BJP-situation-now-volcanic-Sushma/articleshow/4658037.cms
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/BJP-cant-give-up-Hindutva-RSS-Joshi/articleshow/4663136.cms
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=HomePage&id=e9c731c5-d28e-442b-8b58-db89d142d300&Headline=Lok+Sabha+debacle+haunts+BJP+as+party+National+Executive+meet


In another news this morning P Chidambaram, the Union Home Minister has asked the West Bengal CM Budhadeb Bhattacharya to do the obvious: Ban the Maoists from the state. Questioning the wisdom of Left-ruled West Bengal for not banning CPI (Maoists) in the state, home minister P Chidambaram said, "I believe there are voices in West Bengal which have raised this issue. We think they should be banned in West Bengal as in other states." Security and intelligence agencies have been raising the issue for long, arguing that West Bengal has become a shelter for Red ultras who take refuge there after committing violence in neighbouring Jharkhand, Bihar and Orissa and also in faraway states like Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Why-arent-Maoists-banned-in-WB-asks-PC/articleshow/4675711.cms

Both these cases reflect the same fact: A relationship between two siblings (Marxists / Maoists and BJP / RSS). The difference being that one sibling has a progressive developmental perspective while the other is a more radical extremist ideology. Unfortunately, at this point of time, the road ahead presents a dilemma as these ideologies cannot have the same common identity and must part. It is time for the BJP leadership to recognize the fact that Hindutva is not a long term and sustainable platform (and instead it should look to eulogize its infrastructural achievements in Gujarat and else where). For the Kolkata based Left Government the choice is to dissociate with the Extreme Left Maoists to present itself in the right light to the people, for whom it stood for 32 years.