I did not quite expect that i will be writing a part 4 to this series of blogs about Pakistan. Reality is that i am not a Pakistan basher, but then as a state, it is under such a mess that one cant help but ruminate Pakistan's Course: Its present and its Future.
Stratfor (short for Strategic Forum, a US think Tank) has warned in its report Jihadism in 2009: The trends continue, that Pakistan could become a failed state if if it failed to take action against the terror elements and establish government control over ISI, the “rogue spy agency”. Even as Asif Ali zardari, the president of the state, publicly bemoans the death of Benazir, there is no sign of any activity to bring the perpetrators of the Benazir conspiracy to courts of law!
With a dash of irony, i find this report very insightful. Especially if a search: Failed state + Pakistan reports 504000 hits on Google! The only interesting allusion is to teh nuclear warheads in Pakistan. That, is the bigger picture they have tried to complete. An irresponsible and fragile state gurading a nuclear stockpile. That no good news for India. It isnt for good news for US as well, especially since US is Enemy no 1 on the Jihad campaign!
Back to Pakistan and its Failed state status. Fund for peace, a washington based non profit research organization releases a Failed States index every year basis 12 indicators which are social, economic and political in nature. Here’s how the Fund for Peace defines a failed state:
A state that is failing has several attributes. One of the most common is the loss of physical control of its territory or a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Other attributes of state failure include the erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions, an inability to provide reasonable public services, and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community. (Conditions sound familiar! dont they???)
Read the Failed state index reports in details here: http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=99&Itemid=140
Pakistan fares high on that list. No 9 in the failed states around the world. Only Afghanistan amongst the Asian countries is above it! Pakistan's inability of governance of the FATA (Federally administered Tribal Areas) and its more recent loss of Swat valley to Taliban show the democratic government has lost physical control of its territory. That Pakistan has three heads of state: the Prime Minister + President, the Army Chief and the ISI Taliban nexus is a clear-as-daylight fact. The ISI and the army are mostly autonomous in the way they work and thats quite been the way it is since a long time (about 1977 when Zia came to power). Its public services and law and order situation are in doldrums even as one gets to hear that the number of civilians killed in terror/militant activities is 6700 for the calendar year 2008! Click here for casualities for terrorist violence in Pakistan http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm
As far as the international community is concerened, no one doubts that absolute anarchy rules Pakistani and there is not enough political will to fight the extremist forces to give law, order, peace and development a chance!
The question remains an inconvenient truth: Is the Pakistan leadership doing enough to save their nation? Or is another Afghanistan in the making?
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