Noble Cause or Noble Duplicity

http://www.livemint.com/2009/10/11213737/A-prize-to-bind-nuclear-India.html: a Mint article on Obama, the geo-politics of disarmament and winning the Noble prize.

Prizes are usually given after the fact: Herta Mueller and Venkatraman Ramakrishnan first write about Romania or research ribosomes—they later get Nobels for their work. Then, there’s the strange occasion where a prize is awarded before the fact: US President Barack Obama wins the Nobel Peace Prize for just dreaming to rid the world of nuclear weapons. If that dream comes anywhere close to becoming fact, India will find itself with nothing to celebrate.

On the same day that Obama was awarded the Nobel, he sent a letter to the US Congress or “certification” under the US-India civilian nuclear deal. This certified that the US would work to “further restrict the transfers of equipment and technology related to the enrichment of uranium and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel”.

There’s no cause and effect here as yet: US law requires this general certification. But what if there’s cause and effect in the future?

The Nobel is sure to give Obama affirmation about his ideas for a nuclear weapons-free world. The trouble is that he is unlikely to be able to get countries such as Iran and North Korea to back off from the path they’ve chosen. He is also unlikely to be able to get Russia and China to disarm before the US takes such steps. That leaves players such as India that are considered easy to arm-twist in this quest.

It’s no secret that the White House has pressured India in the last few months on this issue. Post-Nobel, there’s the danger this pressure will increase.

Part of this centres on the US Democratic Party’s perception of India as being “obstructionist”. While they kowtow to China, progressives refuse to acknowledge, unlike—and perhaps even in reaction to—Bush, the exception the civilian nuclear deal seeks to give India.

The other part centres on what US journalist Walter Lippmann observed in 1943 about the disarmament movement—that it had been “tragically successful in disarming the (very) nations that believed in disarmament”. India, as its no-first-use principle shows, shudders at the thought of deploying such weapons. Others don’t share that apprehension. Yet, India’s responsible behaviour makes it the low-hanging fruit the disarmament ayatollahs can pick on. The true rogue states are instead appeased.

India must resist these pressures and double standards. This means not only forceful diplomacy, but—in light of the US-India talks that recently commenced in Vienna over reprocessing nuclear fuel and that further facilitate commercial negotiations—also making sure it doesn’t rely too much on the US for materials or diplomatic favours.

Now is the Time for Barrack Obama

Over most of 2008, i watched Barrack Hussein Obama overcome herculean odds to become the next president of United States. To me the preliminaries where he fought Hillary Clinton were a greater test of the person than the actual Democrats versus Republicans election against John McCain. For most of the part, Obama never faltered with his message of change must come to America. John McCain's choice of his deputy, the pin up Sarah Palin, was a significant cause of his defeat.



However, this blog does-not deal with that. It deals with Obama, the successor of Bush. For 6 and a half years, Bush was a buffoon on the most important seat in the world. As the president of US, Bush actions were not only jibbed, laughed at, cartooned and caricatured; the enormity of his policies and mistakes have made the world a whole lot more unsafe then it was before. A failed War of Terrorism which saw him burn up trillions without any effect, a domestic economy reeling under the financial crisis, the fall of the wall street and the big american firms, failed agreements: there is precious little to show on his result card, as Bush bows out. I would assume that in the history of American presidency Bush was the most lampooned president ever (not withstanding the Media multiplication). Little wonder then that George W Bush, the 43rd President of America ends his term in a manner of a lame duck with a fitting tribute to his 8 years at the oval office, a size 10 boot. (From Iraq with love). The world lays seize to very real threats such as climate change, terror and a long depression. Mr Bush retires with a next to zero score on his report card. His eccentricities and funny ways have not helped his cause and reputation either. Love to see this comic strip called Bush in Big Brother or something.

At this time, the world and the american citizenry looks upto Obama with hope and encouragement. They see him to be an agent of Change, a politically savvy, self aware and intelligent spokesperson. One that the world needs so badly at this time. Apart from his persona, Obama has won hearst and minds with his actions. I singularly find, the appointment of Hillary Clinton to his team as a masterstroke. Hillary is too good an administrator to miss in any team that roots for change. Her inclusion into the cabinet signals that Obama means business and if that means teaming up with his arch nemesis to lead US out of the woods, he wouldnot bauly at it. (I wish the Indian politicians learnt a few things from Obama). As Obama prepares to take over the white house, he has a manifold agenda which includes putting some order back to the mess Bush is leaving behind and activating an agenda which propels change for better. Obama faces a stiff challenge in many and more fronts...
1. Leading the US out of the economic mess that it is. From being a recession that is worst in the last 80 years to a real time deflation threat. Obama and the Fed will have to look at means and measures to put the super economy of US back to the wheels.
2. The Big three are going under. The Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Meryll Lynch, AIG, Citigroup and many more are on Fed respirators. It is going to be a tough bullet to bite as Obama would presides over "how to overhaul the economy?". This has very powerful implications on the way people are going to see him in US as well around the world.
3. Climate is one of the most important issues facing the world. The tussle between the developed and underdeveloped world over Carbon emissions are going to be another critical test for Obama. How would he balance that?
4. The power centres in the world are shifting to China and India, both emerging strong and fast. How does US react and recognise these new kids on the block?
5. Terror is a real threat looming large. How would US handle delicate situations like the Afghan - Pak - India conflict / dilemna. Currently US is playing the peace monger but the relevance of the new kids along with the terror situation is going to be formidable challenge.
6. US has messed up in Iraq and it looks like it is following course in Afghanistan. Will there be a significant chnage in the American way of dealing with Terror now on? Its Obama's turn to decide.

Obama's aura is formidable (being the Time's man of the year)... the challenges presented are going to test every nerve in Obama as he takes over. It is scary to think but media and people over the world over rate this man... is he the Messiah he is supposed to be?