Zardari's begging bowl

In over 11 previous posts, I have written on the central issue plaguing Pakistan- An inept and corrupt leadership (sans influence and control) playing puppet to army/ISI powers playing puppet to a larger and high orthodox Islamic order (Taliban being one of the faces of this front). It is indeed a shame that the world watches as Pakistan deteriorates into an Islamic Anarchy. The human, economic, trade and infrastructure indexes in the Pakistan are retrogressing to put it mildly. For a long tiem now, it has been running on IMF and American aid. However the spends have not shown any "developmental" returns.

While Zardari goes about begging for aid from the developed economies, there is little he can show as real time development during his 1.5 year tenure. Forget the state, a justice for his wife's assassination is pending. Zardari has proven to be a very weak and vacillating leader of a country, which at this time needs a visionary, dare- all statesman leader more than anything. The greatest acheivements that Zardari can talk about is his tenure as far as Pakistan is concerned is the success of his aid accumulation efforts. US has aided him, so has the IMF, so has China and now Japan. $1 billion aid to Pakistan has been promised by Japan and US to support economic reforms and developmental assistance.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/US-Japan-pledge-1bn-each-to-Pak/articleshow/4412576.cms
Furthermore, Zaradari has set claims to such aids as a measure (pay back) for Pakistan aiding the "war against terror" on its soil. According to Zardari "If we win, you win. If we loose, you loose" can be construed as a thinly veiled persuation tactic.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/Zardari-seeks-aid-like-Marshall-Plan/articleshow/4412121.cms
On a subject such as winning and loosing, Zardari prefers silence on why he would agree to sharia laws and let Taliban "rule" a part of the Pakistani territory. It only proves a complete breakdown of the security systems in Pakistan and the helplessness of Islamabad in managing this muck that they have gotten themselves in.

As if a $7.5 billion civilian aid and $3 billion military assistance is not enough, Pakistan’s envoy to the US Husain Haqqani has sought $30 billion under Marshall Plan to fight Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.$30 billion is far less than the current stimulus packages being doled out to banks and other US companies. “Despite the economic issues that the world is facing, the cost of a Marshall Plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan is going to be minuscule (compared) to the bailouts being given to American car companies and AIG (American International Group),” Haqqani was quoted.Kerry-Lugar bill has proposed tripling of the non-civilian aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion a year, he said Pakistan needs $5 billion a year for the next five years from the US and its allies to build local law enforcement of about 100,000 men, strengthen counterinsurgency against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and persuade average citizen that the US-led war on extremism is Pakistan’s war and essential for the country’s survival.

It is baffling as to how such huge aid moneys are routinely routed to Pakistan, even while western states express shock, anger, grief and admonishment at Islamabad's mis-governance.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6898150&page=1. As of 8th April 2009, Taliban broke the "peace deal" between themselves and the government that was drawn in March, 2009. As of 10th April, Taliban fighters were barely 60 miles (97km) north-west of Islamabad.
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20090090259
http://www.zeenews.com/South-Asia/2009-04-09/522070news.html
http://www.livemint.com/2009/04/10000833/Time-distance-and-Taliban.html

It is time for the international forum to see beyond Islamabad's diversionary tactics and be satisfied with the aid lumpsums that they deliver to Islamabad. There is a real problem out there and it is for the average Pakistani citizen that the international community now needs to react and call for a broader military action in Pakistan. Else the whole country is in a real danger of descending into lawless fiefdoms, much the same as Afghanistan fate.

Did Obama force Zardari's hand?

There are Republican views in US, that Obama's opening few days havent been any great success. This is to do with the $800 billion stimulus plan that Obama has been trying to push forward. There also is some confusion about a few members in Obama's Cabinet.

However, i give Obama a high score in the first 20 days in office. In terms of action in the subcontinent, Obama has gone about the task clinically, forcing Pakistan's admission on the 26/11 case. From a state of denial ("non state actors") to "stop and go" action (house arrests, crack down on terrorist camps) to vacillating stand points (we also trust China) to a full burst anti Taliban stand (taliban is trying to take over Pakistan); the leadership of Pakistan has given the world a myriad full screen matinee script worth digging discussions after discussions. However, the latest stand taken by Asif Ali Zardari in admitting Pakistan inability to restrict Taliban's power on its soil and a "mea culpa" (with conditions and demands of evidence) is the sign of hard diplomacy paying off. While India mounted the heat on Pakistan in terms of diplomacy (directed to ostracism of Pakistan); one feels that a major reason behind the Pakistani turn around was growing US pressure. Interestingly the game of twisting arms was played on one simple plank: economic aid. It is plain and clear that the economy of Pakistan today lives by the US aids and a failure on this part would have plunged Pakistan into civil unrest and turmoil.

Zardari on his behalf has probably taken the first significant step in what should be seen as purging Pakistan of the Taliban Carcinogen. We also know that the drone attacks on Taliban, which were being opposed by the Pakistani leadership, was actually happening from Pakistani airbases and under the leadership's knowledge. Todays newspaper speaks about a missile attack killing 10 Talibanis. It is becoming increasingly clear that Obama is under no mood to relent as far as wiping Taliban is concerned! Under pressure to support the economy and its survival, Zardari now tows Obama's lines.

If Zardari is able to get American aid to exorcise Taliban Influence on its lands, he would be doing Pakistan's future a great deal of good. I sincerely hope, that he is able to travel the distance without falling to the traggic fate of his wife. Somewhere between Obama, Zardari and Taliban lies the fate of Pakistan.

Why wont Pakistan make it as nation? (Part III)

When i wrote the Part1 and substaantiated it with Part II, i had not known that my thoughts would so quickly be validated by IRI survey on Pakistan.
http://www.dawn.com/2008/12/20/top3.htm
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=HomePage&id=807e81c1-73ef-43b2-b40e-3a4dffff1c06&MatchID1=4856&TeamID1=6&TeamID2=2&MatchType1=1&SeriesID1=1223&MatchID2=4873&TeamID3=1&TeamID4=3&MatchType2=1&SeriesID2=1229&PrimaryID=4856&Headline='Most+Pakistanis+want+Nawaz+Sharif+as+Prez'

88% of the population believes that Pakistan is not headed the right way! 67% believe that democracy has not made any difference to their well being and 59% believe that they would be worse off next year compared to this year. 78% Pakistani's feel less secure in the current circumstances. These numbers are worse than the times of Pervez Musharraf in his days.
Such a high degree of pessimism and discontent is the forbearer of Doom and thats putting things extremely mildly. 67% of the population have lost all faith in democracy as an ideal. Disaffection, discontent, disillusionment run rife amongst the citizens if that is one headline that this survey should emblazon.

These are the same people, who elect governments, pay taxes and are nations top most priorities. If ever, the Pakistani leadership has to learn a lesson and more importantly act on it, it has to be now...

It will require "biting" the "proverbial bullet". I would assume the following points of action for Pakistan:

1. Pull the plug on the army - ISI - Jehadi nexus. Funds that could be well used in developmental projects get syphoned into the terror network. The Pakistani armed forces would have to be neutralized from the extremist poles. Governance and policies should lead the militray and not the other way round for Pakistan. (If required, the president should have the guts to call for an international effort to weed the nexus, which could also mean deployment of UN forces.)
2. Need to clean up the house. All terror bases dismantled completely with all terrorists taken out to the law. This one is tough act as long as the generals and ISI rule the governing machinery.
3. Time Bound action plan to kick off the developmental and infrastructure projects. This will initially mean more debt in a debt laden economy but this time the money has to be well used.
4. Involve Private and international investors to invest and partner in growth (the way it has happened in India). Requires a judicious mix of thought and action. Too much too soon can over - expose the economy. Too less can reduce the pace of change.

But will the Zardaris or the Sharrifs of the world have the conviction, determination and courage to lead Pakistan out of the cesspool they find themselves and Pakistan to be in at this moment. If a call for action now doesnot happen, then Pakistan is pretty much destined doomed.