Receeding Glaciers: Earth's natural heritage at terrible risk (Part II)

The scale of the problem can be realised when you factor in that huge populations dependent on glacier-fed rivers in Asia - 360 million on the Ganges in India and 388 million on the Yangtze in China alone - will not be able to feed themselves, with devastating effect on already rising global food prices. The problem is the most acute in Asia, where glaciers are an important source for nine major rivers which run through land occupied by 2.4 billion people. In Pakistan, for example, 80 per cent of agricultural land is irrigated by the Indus, which the WWF last year highlighted as one of the world's 10 big at-risk rivers because retreating glaciers provide 70-80 per cent of its flow.

According to a report by the world Glacier monitoring service, from 1850 to 1970, net losses averaged about 30cm a year; between 1970 to 2000 they rose to 60-90cm a year; and since 2000 the average has been more than one metre a year. Last year the total net loss was the biggest ever, 1.3m, and only one glacier became larger. Worldwide, the vast majority of the planet's 160,000 glaciers are receding at least at this rate or more! According to a UNEP report two-thirds of China's glaciers would disappear by 2050, and 'almost all would be gone by 2100'.

In North America, 99-plus per cent of Alaskan glaciers are either retreating or stagnating. In the European Alps, a report last year by UNEP said glaciers declined, from a peak in the 1850s, by 35 per cent by 1970 and by 50 per cent by 2000, and lost 5-10 per cent in the mega-hot year of 2003 alone. UNEP has also reported declines in the last 50-150 years of 1.3 per cent in the Arctic islands to 50 per cent in the North Caucasus in Russia, 25-50 per cent in central Asia, a 2km retreat of the massive Gangotri glacier which feeds the Ganges, 49 to 61 per cent in New Zealand, and 80 per cent in the high mountains of southern Africa. There is also 'considerable' shrinking of medium and small glaciers in central Chile and Argentina accompanied by 'drastic retreat' of glaciers in Patagonia to the south.

On a global level, scientists warn that melting glaciers are contributing more than ever to rising sea levels: expansion of warmer water is estimated to cause two-thirds of the problem, but melting glaciers and icecaps are the second biggest contributor. A recent paper published by Science calculated acceleration of glacier melt could add 0.1-0.25m to sea-level rise by 2100.

At a policy level, leaders around the world are still debating the means to address problems such as greenhouse emissions and carbon footprints. Outside in the wilderness, the last signs of earth's heritage, its glaciers are melting away more rapidly than we care to think about.

(reproduced from http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/mar/16/glaciers.climatechange)

Receeding Glaciers: Earth's natural heritage at terrible risk (Part I)

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Earth/Glaciers-in-Tibet-shrinking-/articleshow/4175959.cms

Glaciers in the Qinghai - Tibet Plateau in Yangtze source area, have receded 196 sq.kms over the last 40 years!

Glaciers at the headwaters of the Yangtze, China's longest river, now cover 1,051 square km compared to 1,247 square km in 1971, a loss of nearly a billion cubic metres of water.

The tongue of the Yuzhu glacier, the highest in the Kunlun Mountains, fell by 1,500 metres over the same period, showed the study

In the short term, melting glacier waters brings more fresh water to rivers, but as the source dies down, the river beds will dry out and have droughts every cycle. This will disturb the population around the banks and the agricultural patterns, which depend on the river as a lifeline. On the other hand melting water in glaciers are also submerging pastures in higher Himalayas impacting the domestic, trade, fauna and flora of the regions. Tibet today faces this problem where Glaciers and their rapid cooling are causing changes both in life and economy of the country.

While Tibet is the just the stating bell, this is an ominous sound of coming disaster which will impact the planet as a whole. As they retreat, glacial lakes will burst, debris and ice will fall in avalanches, rivers will flood and then dry up, and sea levels will rise even further, say the climate experts. Communities will be deprived of essential water, crops will be ruined and power stations which rely on river flows paralysed.

There something about Digital Brands: Buzzing away to glory

If it wasnot for the TATA entry at no.6, the 7 most buzzing brands in India would all have been New age/ Digital/ Electronic brands. This is according to the top 50 list of most buzzing brands in india released by Afaqs.

For the third successive year, Airtel retains the crown of the most buzzing brand. All that marketing spend with SRK, Saif, Kareena, A R Rehman, Madhavan and Vidya Balan is showing there on the top. For a brand selling something as competitive and undifferentiated as air time, Airtel has used all its resources to stay well on top for three years.

If Airtel used its marketing muscle to stay on top, Facebook and Google didnot even move a single muscle. No budgets in marketing what so ever. And Facebook did come ever so close to Airtel. There may be a lesson here, Web 2.0 brands may after all be very independent from the traditional modes of marketing. User Involvement and innovation may be the key in here.

I had blogged sometime back on "What an Idea, sirjee". Appears that the junta under its new founded citizen activism mantra identifies with the campaign and the brand is buzzing high up at No.4. Nokia keeps itself at No 5 and losses a few votes. But, as a company, it backs itself in hard times to come out stronger. You cannot count them out.

A legacy brand 120 years old is as relevant to India as ever. In news because of its Jaguar and Land Rover deals, Tata moves up two notches. As proven by Taj, which comes into No 9 from nowhere a good brand can capitulate on a painful 26/11 thing. To Tata, and to Indianness, These brands keep buzzing1

Hutch was in the top 5 for two years before it went crashing out for a year. After a hiatus of an year, Vodafone crashes in top 10 and the way it is for this brand, it looks like it will surely eye the 6 spots ahead of it next year.

Time of India holds itself steady though it looses a spot. News in India is the Times!

Inspite of being in news through out the year, Kingfisher and Reliance go down by 9 spots on the buzzing brands! Well, India surely believes Buzzing brands need more than bikini ladies and Fisichella force to keep them buzzing. Aint it Mr Mallya? Alsomissing in action is our local brand university, HUL and its power brands. HUL would be dissapointed.

Virgin with its youthy ads seem to have caught some attention here. In a very short time, Virgin really has gathered some insights, which makes it identiable with the youth population in India.

In a high Top of the mind category, Coke seems to have shut itself off from big time advertising and that is showing in there. Refer to Pepsi with its Ranbir - Deepika and Dhoni company which has done somewhat better. Expect Aamir to be back prime time with his Chota Coke or what ever now. Speaking of Aamir, Samsung seems to be getting its act in order with its huge jump in spots.

What ever happened to Maggi, a young India favourite, which has fallen dismally!

One opinion, however controversial in here is that the Afaqs missed listing a big one! This is Brand Satyam. Whether for good,bad or ugly reasons, Satyam has generated more buzz than the whole of the top 5 put together!

The Road to no where: Subhiksha

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/01/subhiksha-perfect-go-bust-part-ii.html

http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=7418068395817476239&postID=1757367981531350090

http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/the-anatomy-of-a-bust

http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/the-road-to-no-where

6 months and 4 posts later, Subhiksha is no tottering on the brink. Its 1600 outlets are all shut. It is not doing business, it has 300 crore of immediate cash requirement, it has not paid its employees 5 months salaries, it is indebted to its suppliers and other creditors, it owes the landlords rents of the outlets, it has no money to pay its security, its stores have been vandalized, most of its managerial cadre has left. How worse can it get? A little more from here: 5 of its 10 directors have resigned from its board, Tata Teleservices which provided its employees with phone lines has a bill of Rs.10 crore, with which it has gone to Chennai court, the EPF trust has moved court against non submission of EPF amounts. It doesnot get worse than this.

Apparently RS is not declaring Subhiksha bankrupt and is going through a debt restructuring programme to make his company lucrative for equity participation offers! Interestingly 5 of its independent directors including the 2 members of the ICICI venture have resigned from its board. Azim Premji, another investor in the company is moving the court on the matter of merger of Subhiksha with Blue Green constructions. That makes 6 independent directors in a board of 10, who appear to have views about Subhiksha and its management, which are completely different from RSs views. The other 4 directors include RS himself and 3 faceless nameless entities from Blue Green Constructions (A company promoted by RS). There are chilling similarities between Subhiksha and Satyam.

In the month of May 2008, Subhiksha had taken a debts from 10 banks worth 620 crore. Then it had also issued warrants to 6 Mutual fund houses totalling another 40 crore. Thats a total of 660 crore. Of Subhiksha's own filing, we know that it is a 2308 crore company in trunover (FY 08). That means a monthly revenue of Rs.200 crores. After recieving a debt stimulus in May 2008, the company started defaulting on suppliers from July and August 2008 and there were delays in employee payments August - September onwards. These matters are in public knowledge by relevant press coverage in those dates. One would assume the 660 crore in the system would have been put to good use and yet the chain was massively defaulting.

Subhiksha was speaking of Private mandis and CDIT stores those days, but the plans never saw fulfilment. There was no significant expansion activity those days. So the 660 crore couldnot have been used up in expansion alone! If 3 montsh expansion ate up all of 66o Crores, that would have a fast and furious expansion and it would again be public knowledge!

If Subhiksha was funding existing operations, running out of 660 crores in 3 months is unbelievable really. For a chain doing 200 cores of monthly business, using up 200 crores (660 crores in a quarter) is tantamount to zero operational deliveries. That is quite an impossibility.

If the 660 crores were used to square off earlier debts, it would have meant that the money put to use earlier didnot earn returns! The model thus was not working from its very beginning!

Which ever way the 660 crores were put to use amongst these three, or a combination of these three; it only demonstrates the incapability of the management at Subhiksha. Perhaps a little more, there is a possibility that the 660 crores could have been siphoned off... (we dont want to relive Satyam!)

With such a background, does RS hope to find a equity buyer... i doubt it.

6000 crores: Cost of running the Largest democracy in the world

Seven days back, i had put in my first post on the election expenditure in India. http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/elections-in-india-financial-black-box.html
I feel compelled to revisit the the topic again basis a times of India report on election expenses. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/Economy/Finance/Coming-Rs-6000-crore-poll-stimulus/rssarticleshow/4146923.cms

This ToI report by Akshaya Mukul and Sanjaya Dutta tries estimating the lowerside of the costs of a general election in India. The starting premise is Rs.1300 crores (equal to 2004s spends) on getting the infrastructure and machinery running. (I had estimated this to be Rs.2000 crores)

On a very basic assumption that all 543 constituencies will have a triangular contest, the model estimates 543*3*2 = Rs.3258 crores of money spent by candidates on their campaigns. It is worth a mention that the average spend by a candidate has been fixed at Rs.2 crore. This doesnot include upsides like city candidates spending more, or, more than 3 candidates in the fray. Also the campaigns are getting the technology edge i.e SMSs, Websites, Web Banners etc. These costs have been overlooked because compared to all other traditional means and methods, these would really be a very small percentage.

Then there are the party propaganda costs. This is over and above the candidate spends at constituencies and they drive the party objective (e.g Bharat Nirman, LKAdvani.com etc). This doesnot stop at BJP and Congress. SP, BSP, BJD,RJD, DMK, TDP, NCP, JDU, CPM and many other will incur spends. These figures are difficult to ascertain. Alone Congress had declared Rs.125 crore spends and BJP had declared Rs.42 crore spends in 2004. We can assume a figure of Rs.750 crore as a cummulative of propaganda costs of all party which by all means would again be extremely conservative. (We already have BJP spending Rs.250 crore in its "L K Advani as prime minister" campaign).

Then a ball parkish Rs.250 cores (again on lower side) can be parked for donations from friends and benefactors of the candidates.

Thus we have 1300 crores (estimate of 2004) + 3258 (Spends by candidates) + 750 crores (Spends by parties) + 250 crores (donations) ~ Rs. 6000 corore riding on teh elections. A more realstic figure would be Rs.7500 crore. In a year , when 2 stimulus packages have failed to revive economic growth, and a pessimistic view of fiscal deficit puts it at 10% of GDP (Planned at 6%), Rs. 6000 crore appears to be a very high price to pay for making choices (one not any better than the other).

However, that i presume is the cost of running the largest democracy in the world ~ rs.6000 crore in the election year (recession or no recession!). The minimum we do is to vote!

Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation (Part V)

I suppose i should now change the headline of this series of posts. Over the last 3 months, i have in a series of blogs stressed upon the dire straits that Pakistan is in today. By all means it is a crumbling nation imploding under its own fanatic religious idealogies.

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_20.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_18.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation.html

Two days back, Pakistan Government has ceeded the control of Swat valley to Taliban. The mechanics include introduction of Sharia laws (Islamic Laws) in the beleagured Malakand area and a temporary suspension of military activities in the region. The direct accruals out of this development:

1. Taliban now have a safe haven/province, a sanctuary for Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. For the first time, we have a terrorist state on the global map!

2. Taliban is discomfortingly close to Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is well within a hands lenght of the Taliban Extremists!

3. Even as Taliban celebrate this event by rallies around Swat, this is Pakistan government's deepest and darkest hour when they are no longer able to retain control of their provinces.

4. Islamabad's faltering military campaign (which US pays for) is tentatively put on hold and Taliban have agreed for a tentative ceasefire.

According to the terms of the agreement, "all non-Shari'a laws" have been abrogated in Malakand. Security forces "will only act if fired upon by militants." And if the "writ of the state is restored," the army's 12,000 troops will be withdrawn from the valley. The agreement, enjoys the support of President Asif Ali Zardari.

To quote Time magazine on a source within the Pakistan Government, " government's acceptance of the [sharia] courts was an attempt to blunt efforts of the Taliban to woo Swat residents frustrated by the ineffective judiciary. The Taliban was trying to take advantage of the local movement and desire for a judicial system". Thus by putting the Sharia into prcatise the goverment is trying to appease its citizen in the valley, who have been frustrtade by Pakistan's venal courts and judiciary systems. This appeasement would stear the suppoorters away from the jihadist, isolate the militants and with the help of local leaders restore peace.

Under the Islamic laws, bombing of girl schools, subjgation of women, public beheadings, assassinations and Taliban courts to dispense justice would now be the order of the land in Malakand province. This follows a break down on the judicial system to dispense justice to citizens in the province. Sources with Malakand provinces have been quoted saying Islamabad
does not have sufficient force to defeat the Taliban and foreign fighters based in the autonomous tribal areas along the Afghan border and thus needs to negotiate with local militant groups in nearby areas like Swat to isolate the renegade hardliners in the tribal sanctuaries.

Once a popular tourist destination, Swat has over the past two years seen more than 1,500 people killed, close to 200 schools destroyed and girls' education banned, scores of beheadings and kidnappings, and more than 100,000 people driven from their homes.

Analysts and Observers say that this is a dangerous gamble and specially so with Islamabad which has limited control on its own defence establishments! Allowing Taliban a breather would allow them to regroup and push more at a later date which would not only endanger Pakistan but also have grave implicatiosn for India, US and the world.

My belief is that this is the beginning of the end game for Pakistan. Under US and iunternational pressure, Pakistan may have to take military action against the Taliban in the province. By allowing Taliban to regroup now, it will face a stronger foe. Chances are the situation will implode from within and Taliban will take a lot that is "Pakistan" down with it. An "Afghanistan" fate awaits Pakistan in the near future and the recent gambit has irrecoverably put Pakistan on the one way to destruction.

Did Obama force Zardari's hand?

There are Republican views in US, that Obama's opening few days havent been any great success. This is to do with the $800 billion stimulus plan that Obama has been trying to push forward. There also is some confusion about a few members in Obama's Cabinet.

However, i give Obama a high score in the first 20 days in office. In terms of action in the subcontinent, Obama has gone about the task clinically, forcing Pakistan's admission on the 26/11 case. From a state of denial ("non state actors") to "stop and go" action (house arrests, crack down on terrorist camps) to vacillating stand points (we also trust China) to a full burst anti Taliban stand (taliban is trying to take over Pakistan); the leadership of Pakistan has given the world a myriad full screen matinee script worth digging discussions after discussions. However, the latest stand taken by Asif Ali Zardari in admitting Pakistan inability to restrict Taliban's power on its soil and a "mea culpa" (with conditions and demands of evidence) is the sign of hard diplomacy paying off. While India mounted the heat on Pakistan in terms of diplomacy (directed to ostracism of Pakistan); one feels that a major reason behind the Pakistani turn around was growing US pressure. Interestingly the game of twisting arms was played on one simple plank: economic aid. It is plain and clear that the economy of Pakistan today lives by the US aids and a failure on this part would have plunged Pakistan into civil unrest and turmoil.

Zardari on his behalf has probably taken the first significant step in what should be seen as purging Pakistan of the Taliban Carcinogen. We also know that the drone attacks on Taliban, which were being opposed by the Pakistani leadership, was actually happening from Pakistani airbases and under the leadership's knowledge. Todays newspaper speaks about a missile attack killing 10 Talibanis. It is becoming increasingly clear that Obama is under no mood to relent as far as wiping Taliban is concerned! Under pressure to support the economy and its survival, Zardari now tows Obama's lines.

If Zardari is able to get American aid to exorcise Taliban Influence on its lands, he would be doing Pakistan's future a great deal of good. I sincerely hope, that he is able to travel the distance without falling to the traggic fate of his wife. Somewhere between Obama, Zardari and Taliban lies the fate of Pakistan.

Peddling Politics of Hatred and Mistrust!

I had covered the topic of Godhra riots in Gujarat, in two of my earlier blogs about Asma Jahangir's report to UN about status of the "minority religions" in India.
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/india-ticking-minority-time-bomb-part.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/india-ticking-minority-time-bomb-part-i.html

Seven years later, the issue still remains unresolved and sore thorns of hatred are littered around the country.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Gujarat-riots-toll-to-go-up-from-952-to-1180/articleshow/4133625.cms
Denial is a word that we have to associate with Pakistan and its refusal to owe responsibility for the terror that emanated from its soil and created havoc in the streets of Mumbai. However, there is this case of BJP government led by Narendra Modi in denial of its own heinous and barbaric act in the state of Gujarat. BJP, a hindu idealogy centred political party, could not control the militant and extremist arm of the Hindutva centered idealogy as it went on a murderous rampage in Gujarat in 2002. The death toll stands at 952 and will now rise to 1180 as the 228 "missing" will be declared dead! No effort was made to trace the 228 "missing", not because the banks had to pay compensation, but because this would repeal full scale investigation into the murders. Only when and if, the state goverment is hand in glove with the crimes such as these, can 228 people "missing" or "killed" enquiries be stalled. The issue which has incited so much attention to Indians and the secularistic fabric of our society, and has been portrayed on screen "Parzania", is swept under the carpet hastily, as BJP and its allies glorify Narendra Modi's tall list of achievements as a poll plank!

The government at centre cannot influence the one at state, because the constitution doesnot permit such interferences and more because they are from different parties and cannot stand together even on constructive issues, forget sore points such as these. The industry roots for polititicians such as Modi, because of the economic/business/political favours. In situations such as these, it is for educated citizenry and media who can form a stand against such issues and such loathsome idealogies and leaders!

The start can happen through casting our votes....

Elections in India: The financial black box!

Till some time back, India was a third world nation. We have bettered that statistic quite meaningfully in the last decade. However, there is another statistic that is quite stark. The national commission on electoral reforms once remarked that the general election in India is eqquivalent to consucting polls in All Europe, US, Australia and Canada, all at once. That is perhaps because the population of India exceeds all these nations put together! The statistic shared above is the total cost of an election borne by the exchequer or rather the tax payer! Over the last 40 years the cost of conducting a general election in India has shot up by a multiple of 770! My estimate about the spends this year is above 2000 crores! Bear in mind, this to be the cost of general elections and not the state elections, which is borne by the respective state governments! The government spends the money on on deployment of security personnel and polling staff, setting up polling stations, purchase of electronic voting machines, and issuance of photo identification cards. Well, that is it as far as the government spends are concerned!

When the money blown up by the political parties, candidates and the private sources is concerned, there are no tabs! Political funding knows no accounting and measures! There are strict legal limits on the amount of money a candidate can spend on an election campaign. According to the Election Commission's rules, in bigger constituencies a candidate can spend up to Rs 25 lakh (Rs 2.5 million). In other constituencies, it varies between Rs 10 lakh (Rs 1 million) and Rs 25 lakh. Supporters of a candidate can spend as much as they like to help out with a campaign. But they have to get the candidate's permission in writing to do so. There is a legislative loophole in here, Explanation 1 to section 77(1) of the Representation of the Peoples Act 1951, under which amounts spent by persons other than the candidate and his agent are not added to his/her election expenses. This means a candidate can spend as much as he likes without violating the ceiling on poll expenses. All additional expenditure, when revealed, can be attributed to the party or friends of the candidate. Thus a Ambani funded Narendra Modi campaign can spends millions and millions more, (in return of trade favours later), without Narendra Modi even accouting for what he spent on and how much did he spend!

While parties are allowed to spend as much money on campaigns as they want, recent Supreme Court judgments have said that unless a political party can specifically account for the money thus spent, it will be added to the election expenses of the candidates concerned. The accountability thus imposed on candidates and parties has curtailed some of the more extravagant campaigning that used to be a feature of Indian elections.

It is time to take the legislation and the audits further into each candidate, his constituency and his spends! The first one is to put a cap on electoral spending by candidates! This has to include donations and gifts by friends, well wishers, supporters, followers and every one else! Such blind spending imbalances the polls and is simply a "bribe" issued to people for their votes! These need to be audited and defaulters to be stripped off their membership of houses!

It is also absolutely essential to do statutory audits of the national parties polling in the elections in terms the source and the spending of their funds! If SEBI can demand audits of companies listed in the stock excahnges, i dont see any reason why EC cannot ask full audits of the parties which go to poll in every election!

After all, this is money from the people, of the people and for the people. WHy not use it judiciously!

India: The ticking "minority" time bomb (Part II)

Not from any Movie, this shot was taken during the Pune Riots some time back and capture the Extremist Hindu frenzy!

This poignant shot of Qutubuddin Ansari, a small time muslim trader in Gujarat, was the face of the hapless muslim in Gujarat riots! Fortunately, Ansari lived that day, unfortunately so has the frenzy!

In a three page round up of her report to the UN, Asma has summed up the current religious and political assessments very thoughtfully!

She has lauded the efforts of the existing government in terms of its 15 point programme for welfare of minorities, Justice Sachar and Justice Mishra committee reports. She has also lauded the efforts of the national commission on minorities and national media channels and citizens who have risked their own lives and saved the lives of many during the communal riots!

She has however, indicated a difference in the intent of many state governments with regard to intolerance and discrimination of minorities and other religions! Gujarat and Orissa find a mention amongst the errant states!

To quote Asma, "Organised mobs taking roots in religious idealogies have unleashed an all pervasive fear of mob violence." Taking a shot at the adminitrative and government lack of action and intention, she states that law enforcement agencies are often reluctant to take action against individuals or groups thatperpetrate violence in the name of religion or belief. (We all know that this can happen only and only if there is a political motive and backing to such individuals or groups.)

Drawing on an earlier report, Asma emphasizes that there is a real risk that communal violence may repeat unless political exploitation of communal distinction is effectively prevented and advocacy of religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility and violence is adequately addressed!

The report urges the authorities to take swift action and measures to protect the minorities and prevent communal violence. It also urges the judiciary to effect a time bound closure to communial riot cases and bringing the guilty to the bars!

One of the most impressive points made by Asma is to scruplously implement the Representation of Peoples act 1951 which provides for disqualification of membership of parliament and state legislatures of persons who promote feelings of enimity or hatred between different classes of citizens on grounds of race, religion, caste, community or language! That would debar the use of vote bank politics for serving petty means!

India: The ticking "minority" time bomb (Part I)

Asma Jahangir, Pakistani human rights activist, UN special rapporteur has reported India in a poor light in terms of freedom of religion and beliefs. The report alludes to a real risk of religious strife in India.

http://blogs.reuters.com/india/2009/02/11/un-report-says-real-risk-of-indian-religious-strife/

In her report to the UN, Asma raises several issues of concern on

1. The situation of religious and beleief minorities

2. Justice for victims and survivors of communal violence

3. Freedom of religion and belief in Jammu and Kashmir

4. Negative impact of laws on religious conversion in several states

5. Implications of religion based personal laws

Asma, reports about the plight of Christians in Kandhamal, Orissa where Communal violence had claimed 40 christian lives, 4000 christian homes destroyed, 50 churches demolished. 20000 people are living in relief cmapigns and 40000 hiding in jungles. Access to food, drinking water, clothes, sanitation and healthcare to these people is abysmal

Asma also brings to light the "ghetto"ization of Muslim community in certain parts of India. It speaks about discrimation in work space, economic activity and civic liberties. The Militant strikes only exacerbate the situation hardenning the rift lines. Within the ghetto, Communalism breeds in poor living and flawed communal education. This in turn becomes the breeding ground for militants!

The report expressses concern on the extended timeframe of investigations in cases involving communal riots, violence and massacres. Cases in point are Operation Blue Star (Punjab 1984), Babri Masjid Demolition (Ayodhya, 1992), Godhra (Gujarat, 2002). While these memories haunt the victims, the impunity olny emboldens the perpetrators of such violence!

J&K has been an old issue in these UN rapporteurs! Discrimination against Muslims and Expulsion of the Kashmiri pandits is still a wedge stuck between the communities in J&K. The Muslim population is vulnerable to the excesses of the security forces while the entire population is victim of violence perpetrated by the Islamic militants! Lately, there has been a de-escalation fo the violence but Muslims from Srinagar are still denies rights such as admission to hotels in other parst of the country because they are muslims from Kashmir!

In absence of a proper legislative framework and understanding, laws against religious conversions, these can be seen as a violation of personal rights! Inadequate legislaturehas adverse consequences for religious minorities and has reportedly fostered mob violence aganist them!

Read the full UN report here: http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G09/104/62/PDF/G0910462.pdf?OpenElement

Of Economy, Environment and Human Development: Failure of the GDP concept!

Gross Domestic product (GDP) as a progress indicator/paradigm was a part of the post 1940s era world reconstruction. Over the last 70 years GDP has become a construct for mesauring guman progress and all economic policy making is directed squarely at increasing/maximizing GDP! GDP as a part of national accounts was created by Richard Stone and James Meade with support from John Maynard Keynes as a means to keep track of the economic activity in a state.

However, the challenges faced by the world have now grown from economic/financial to environmental in nature. Then there are challenges on the human development side of things as well. Unfortunately, both the environment and the socio demographic human state is not measured as a indictator of progress. For example, the rich oil producing countries in middle east are the richest in nature and yet most parts of it have people living in the 17th century with no access to basic amenities. Likewise, China is a model for economic growth and yet its Human rights index and environment development index is amongst the poorest!

Interestingly Richard Stone, in his Nobel Memorial Speech in 1984 had himself stated that apart from economic growth, the analysis of a society's progress has to be based on socio demographic as well as the environmental phenoma. To be quoted "...environmental issues, such as poluution, land use and non renewable resources offer plenty of scope for accounting". Unfortunately, the world has continued to pay attention to the economic activity side stepping the environmental and human issues.

Given the socio demographic and environmental issues faced, the world today needs to create additional metrices such as Human Developmental Index and Carbon Footprint. There is a possibility that three metrics may not be preffered, in which case GDP has to be recaliberated to reflect genuine values to things like air and water pollution, deforestation, land degradation, use of alternate energies, health, education, crime etc. The result would be a new GDP number that would truely reflect value generated/consumed by human activities. A striking instance of how the new GDP calliberation would affect the old GDP system is the case of Uttar Pradesh. In just accounting for water quality in rivers in UP, 17.5% of the old GDP would be reduced! Imagine China going from a 11% GDP growth economy to 3% economy GDP growth economy because of the heavy inductrial pollution and bad human development indicators! US would go negative by two digit decimals!

What this would also mean is viability studies that are more rounded. For instance the economic surplus because of a new dam could get negated fully and more by the deficit in the ecological shifts and change in population demographics! That would provide an excellent allround development metric. It is time to move towarsd this sooner!

Happy Valentine's day ...with Love

While some may call this indecent, i prefer to call this Gandhigiri at its best! With its Facebook online avatar (the consortium of Pubgoing, Loose and Forward Women) and its blogspot cousin: http://thepinkchaddicampaign.blogspot.com/ and onground pink chaddi collection centres, the Pink Chaddi campign is the latest and best in new found Gandhigiri! This also forms a perfect script for "Munnabhai and Pink Chaddi", if Rajkunar Hirani is planning a third edition of his Munnabhai blockbusters. Imagine Mallika Sherawat in the movie sending one of hers to Pramod Muthalik!

Citizen activism is up and catching up real fast. For all those years, where the common educated person was at the recieving end of Politics, this is the first time, outfits like Sri Ram Sene and bullies like Pramod Muthalik are facing the music of an angry population!

What happened in Mangalore was shameful and these self proclaimed bully armies need to be given the bittergourd treatement! In another interesting newsbit, the Karnataka Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa, has urged the prime minister to "rein" in the Union Women and Child Development minister Renuka Chaudhury for her caustic remarks about his government's inabilities to ensure law and order in his state (ref the Mangalore Pub incident). http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20090209/1173057.html

Gimmick or no gimmick, citizen activism is doing what the political brass and the Babudom have not been able to do so far. They are showing the end of tolerance of the Indians towards such irresponsible acts and behaviour. So then, Muthalik has wilted under the pressure of a citizen movement coupled with media hounding and has apologised

http://www.daijiworld.com/news/news_disp.asp?n_id=56180&n_tit=Pramod+Muthalik+Apologises+for+Mangalore+Pub+Attack.

So for, the citizen activism part: Jay Ho... Jay Ho!

Contesting the Lok Sabha elections with maturity and responsibility

http://news.in.msn.com/national/article.aspx?cp-documentid=1816831
http://news.in.msn.com/national/article.aspx?cp-documentid=1816830

The only other place, where you would find a semblance of the "political one up man ship" act is probably the nursery for kids! Mud slinging is the USP of such debates! I was not surprised when L K Advani and Sonia Gandhi, the top most leaders in the respective fronts NDA and UPA have taken the first steps towards the political "debate". One would expect that being the top most leaders, these two individuals would step aside from this wild "free for all, no holds barred mud wrestling" matches to talk about development, economy, goals, direction and governance. Alas, the first salvo fired between these two fronts is basis what we call the dirty poll politics. If this be the start, it would only get worse from here both in thought and morals.

L K Advani has gone on an overdrive about three things: Hindutva issue and hence the Ram Mandir, the internal security issues threatening the country and the anti-Congress anti-dynastic rule. Significantly missing is any reference to the economy, trade, foreign policy and home issues (infrastructure, education, healthcare). I think it is time to realise that Ram is insufficient to galvanize votes. One has to have an agenda, a thought and a process! While LKA roils about internal security and the failure of UPA, may he be reminded that NDA carries the cross of Babri Demolition and the death of 1169 civilians in Gujarat riots!

Sonia Gandhi speaks against Divisive forces alluding to BJP and its allies for not supporting the ccause of the state in times of distress. For one thing, i would call Antulay's remarks after 26/11 a case of being divisive. Vote bank "Secular" politics have been far more divisive than any political gambit, and the allies of UPA play this card best. UPAs own leadership issues may be divisive to the common cause and agenda.

Net of all
1. Two seniormost leaders of the political bulwarks should be more fore-sightful in terms of what their parties stand for! (do they define their existance as being the anti matter of the other or are they relevant to India in its present state?)
2. In absence of an agenda for the country, BJP will end up doing a VK Malhotra act (in Delhi) for the polls in the country!
3. With people like Manmohan Singh and P Chidambaram one still has faith about the Congress. (Inspite of the Shivraj Patils, Arun Singhs and Antulays of the world in the same party)

The release of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan

That man on the picture who looks as innocuous as any septuagenerian is a very dangerous person. Individually he has done more to ensure that the world is a more dangerous place to live than many rogue state and governments combined together. He is Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, Pakistan's Nuke Man, the greatest nuclear technology smuggler and proliferator! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Qadeer_Khan

On him rests the responsibility of nuclear weaponized Libya, Iran and North Korea! The Saudi Arabia and Egypt angles have not been proven yet. On 6th February 2009, Islamabad High court declared AQK a "free man". His "house arrest" for the last 5 years is widely viewed as a neccessity for his own security. However, according AQK a "free man" status is perhaps a clear indication from Islamabad to US. An indication that Pakistan's loyalties cannot be taken for granted! Earlier, the Pakistan Foreign minister had issued a statement regarding "trust" on China. ( Where does that put US?). There have also been requests from Asif Zardari to US to do away with "drone attacks". Could the release of AQK be judged as an act of defiance by the Pakistani government? Especially because, AQK's house arrest under the Musharraf regime was seen as a tactic to assuage US woes and giving in to US pressure on AQK. There has been no direct word from officials in Islamabad on the government's interest and reactions on the release. However, "AQK" has thanked Asif Ali Zardari for lifting the restriction imposed on him. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1877608,00.html?xid=rss-topstories

While AQK had in a televised address in 2004 confessed to smuggling and stealing nuclear technology, later he had retracted his confession saying that its was forced on him, by the authorities i.e Musharraf! He had also indicated at another time, that the smuggling and stealing of nuclear weapon technology was done under the knowdge of the Pakistan authorities and there were pay offs at all levels (indicating a broader conspiracy). All said and done, Musharraf never allowed US or the IAEA to interrogate AQK.

We already have a threat note from Congressman Howard Berman,Chairman of House Committee of Foreign Relations ( a powerful Congressional committee that plays a key role in shaping US foreign policy) in terms of US assistance provided to Islamabad. In coming weeks, the House of Representatives and the Senate are likely to take up a legislation, which proposes to triple the non-military aid to Pakistan – amounting to $1.5 billion per annum for the next ten years.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/us-warns-pakliftingq-khans-house-arrest/10/29/54539/on

The situation in the subcontinent is far from what can be called "under control". Pakistan and Afghanistan are bombs waiting to detaonate. Loyalties and stands have varied from one end to another. Pakistan for instance has made many vacillating comments on the "war against terror". Its own loyalties are split between Islamic fundamentalism and allegiance to America against economic aid to keep alive! Counting on such a state as an ally is a mistake that America can ill afford. Will Obama choose to take more direct steps to diffuse Pakistan as a crisis or will he also circumvent and procrastinate the inevitable? By inevitable i mean a joint military operation in Pakistan (may be against Pakistan's own wishes but in their interest) to free the state of its rabid fundamentalists and ensure a free democratic structure working on its own.

A detailed history of AQK and his Nuclear smuggling network:
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1025193-1,00.html

IPL defies Recession, Slowdown and the Downturn!

http://www.livemint.com/2009/02/06110832/Pietersen-Flintoff-fetch-reco.html?h=A1

Recession? What is that? Obama may be keen on limiting the top CEO and banker salaries, but hey, he hasnot heard about IPL!

And i thought Vijay Mallya was cash strapped due to losses in Kingfisher operations. His overzealous acquisition of KP suggests his pockets are deeper than thought! Sometimes, i think Mallya is handling more than he can... with Force India, United Breweries, Banglore Royal Challengers, Kingfisher and all! Offhand, i think that the acquisition of KP was funded by the Rs.80000/- per month pay cut of the pilots in Kingfisher Airlines. The break even of Rs.7.75 crores paid by Mallya for KP would happen in less than a year. A small price to convert a test team to T 20 outfit!!

Theres enough and more star power at IPL this time around with Shilpa Shetty joining in the ranks of Preity Zinta, SRK, Katrina Kaif, Riya Sen and Juhi Chawla! The bids have soared through the sky for most of the 17 players who debut in IPL this year. Dhoni stands trounced by KP and Freddie as the top billed player. Interestinly, if i remember it correct, in IPL season 1 it was mainly the pool D,E,F players who provided the batting and bowling goods! Talk of Shaun Marsh? Gautam Gambhir? Shane Watson? So the highest bidded players were not the top draws in terms of results. VVS Laxman? Rahul Dravid? Sachin Tendulkar? Saurav Ganguly?

$1.5 million fee is pittance when you compare it with Messi's fee of $330 million in Spanish League! But well, cricket in its T 20 avatar is looking up steadily! You already have high passions at stake: Remember crying Srishant and Harbhajan's slap? Shane Warne has reported threatened not to play for Jaipur Royals if they shift base to Ahmedabad and Saurav Dada has indicated fitness for a T 20 go!

With the ad rates not so high this time around and companies being under seizure on account of a downturn, it would be interesting to see how much BCCI and Modi net in IPLs second coming! It would be interesting to do a Superbowl versus IPL kind of an analysis (specially now when the chips are down and out!). Watch this space.

WHo knows, India's deliverance from the downturn may be through the exuberrance of a sporting event after all!

Taking Bharat Nirman and India Shining further.

After a suitably long time, i watched The India Sri Lanka cricket tie on Doordarshan National yesterday. Of the advertisements being aired, i couldnot miss the "Bharat Nirman efforts" TVCs. There is nothi9ng special about the ad. It speaks of the gigantic strides made by India in the recent years in the background even its imagery revoves around how development has touched people's lives. Circa, 2004 and a similar ad campaign comes to my mind: India Shining. That one also spoke about the developments made by the country in those years.


Interestingly India Shining did not deliver! NDA did not return to power for the next term inspite of a good campaign. The analysts felt that India Shining was mostly restricted to Cities, Metros and Tier A urban strata. The real fruit of the governance did not reach the majority who live in Semi Urban and Rural centres. Also India Shining was a poll campaign and not a "Business plan" as Bharat Nirman which was announced in 2005 is. Bharat Nirman is thus a business case with performance metrics on areas such as Roads, Telecommunication, Irrigation, Water Supply, Housing and Electrification. So instead of poll promises, Manmohan Singh stuck his neck out on a time bound plan to deliver goods for the rural infastructure. That was brave, serious and required lot of guts.


Over the next 4 years, there have been strides made, some significant and some not so. Planning Commission has now caliberated the performance against targets, and some aspects are badly off. Bharat Nirman, from its first day has been more of a subsidy scheme where the government makes you good roads, it provides you better water, telecommunication and electricity and houses. Tomorrow if the new government is not willing to spend on the project, then the assets so diligently put on ground will whither erode and depreciate away. Essentially, my arguement is that, the government is catching all the fish for the people hoping in its hears that the rural economy will learn how to fish by watching government fish! Not quite the best solution... the idea should be to make the rural economy learn fishing, hook line and sinker!


Towards this there should be a participation involved between private companies, and instead of the public private relationship being a contractor client relationship, one could look at a partnership based ventures. To put down an example or two, the partnership in investment can be shared between ITC and Government for areas growing wheat, between Lays and Government for areas growing Potato, for Adani and Government for areas growing oil seeds and so on. Thus the goverment would provide all the Bharat Norman elements, the private player would provide schools, dispensaries, vet hospitals, agricultural yield increase know hows and a uniform rate exchange in return of the harvest and certain tax reductions! This would be the SEZ model for government in rural areas. A self sustaining body that, after the initial "Bharat Nirman" push would not require any more proding from the government.

Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation? (Part IV): A Failed State

I did not quite expect that i will be writing a part 4 to this series of blogs about Pakistan. Reality is that i am not a Pakistan basher, but then as a state, it is under such a mess that one cant help but ruminate Pakistan's Course: Its present and its Future.

Stratfor (short for Strategic Forum, a US think Tank) has warned in its report Jihadism in 2009: The trends continue, that Pakistan could become a failed state if if it failed to take action against the terror elements and establish government control over ISI, the “rogue spy agency”. Even as Asif Ali zardari, the president of the state, publicly bemoans the death of Benazir, there is no sign of any activity to bring the perpetrators of the Benazir conspiracy to courts of law!

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/Radioactive_Pak_may_turn_fissile_Stratfor_warns_of_a_failed_state/articleshow/4061306.cms

With a dash of irony, i find this report very insightful. Especially if a search: Failed state + Pakistan reports 504000 hits on Google! The only interesting allusion is to teh nuclear warheads in Pakistan. That, is the bigger picture they have tried to complete. An irresponsible and fragile state gurading a nuclear stockpile. That no good news for India. It isnt for good news for US as well, especially since US is Enemy no 1 on the Jihad campaign!

Back to Pakistan and its Failed state status. Fund for peace, a washington based non profit research organization releases a Failed States index every year basis 12 indicators which are social, economic and political in nature. Here’s how the Fund for Peace defines a failed state:

A state that is failing has several attributes. One of the most common is the loss of physical control of its territory or a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Other attributes of state failure include the erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions, an inability to provide reasonable public services, and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community. (Conditions sound familiar! dont they???)

Read the Failed state index reports in details here: http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=99&Itemid=140

Pakistan fares high on that list. No 9 in the failed states around the world. Only Afghanistan amongst the Asian countries is above it! Pakistan's inability of governance of the FATA (Federally administered Tribal Areas) and its more recent loss of Swat valley to Taliban show the democratic government has lost physical control of its territory. That Pakistan has three heads of state: the Prime Minister + President, the Army Chief and the ISI Taliban nexus is a clear-as-daylight fact. The ISI and the army are mostly autonomous in the way they work and thats quite been the way it is since a long time (about 1977 when Zia came to power). Its public services and law and order situation are in doldrums even as one gets to hear that the number of civilians killed in terror/militant activities is 6700 for the calendar year 2008! Click here for casualities for terrorist violence in Pakistan http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm

As far as the international community is concerened, no one doubts that absolute anarchy rules Pakistani and there is not enough political will to fight the extremist forces to give law, order, peace and development a chance!

The question remains an inconvenient truth: Is the Pakistan leadership doing enough to save their nation? Or is another Afghanistan in the making?