Now is the Time for Barrack Obama

Over most of 2008, i watched Barrack Hussein Obama overcome herculean odds to become the next president of United States. To me the preliminaries where he fought Hillary Clinton were a greater test of the person than the actual Democrats versus Republicans election against John McCain. For most of the part, Obama never faltered with his message of change must come to America. John McCain's choice of his deputy, the pin up Sarah Palin, was a significant cause of his defeat.



However, this blog does-not deal with that. It deals with Obama, the successor of Bush. For 6 and a half years, Bush was a buffoon on the most important seat in the world. As the president of US, Bush actions were not only jibbed, laughed at, cartooned and caricatured; the enormity of his policies and mistakes have made the world a whole lot more unsafe then it was before. A failed War of Terrorism which saw him burn up trillions without any effect, a domestic economy reeling under the financial crisis, the fall of the wall street and the big american firms, failed agreements: there is precious little to show on his result card, as Bush bows out. I would assume that in the history of American presidency Bush was the most lampooned president ever (not withstanding the Media multiplication). Little wonder then that George W Bush, the 43rd President of America ends his term in a manner of a lame duck with a fitting tribute to his 8 years at the oval office, a size 10 boot. (From Iraq with love). The world lays seize to very real threats such as climate change, terror and a long depression. Mr Bush retires with a next to zero score on his report card. His eccentricities and funny ways have not helped his cause and reputation either. Love to see this comic strip called Bush in Big Brother or something.

At this time, the world and the american citizenry looks upto Obama with hope and encouragement. They see him to be an agent of Change, a politically savvy, self aware and intelligent spokesperson. One that the world needs so badly at this time. Apart from his persona, Obama has won hearst and minds with his actions. I singularly find, the appointment of Hillary Clinton to his team as a masterstroke. Hillary is too good an administrator to miss in any team that roots for change. Her inclusion into the cabinet signals that Obama means business and if that means teaming up with his arch nemesis to lead US out of the woods, he wouldnot bauly at it. (I wish the Indian politicians learnt a few things from Obama). As Obama prepares to take over the white house, he has a manifold agenda which includes putting some order back to the mess Bush is leaving behind and activating an agenda which propels change for better. Obama faces a stiff challenge in many and more fronts...
1. Leading the US out of the economic mess that it is. From being a recession that is worst in the last 80 years to a real time deflation threat. Obama and the Fed will have to look at means and measures to put the super economy of US back to the wheels.
2. The Big three are going under. The Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Meryll Lynch, AIG, Citigroup and many more are on Fed respirators. It is going to be a tough bullet to bite as Obama would presides over "how to overhaul the economy?". This has very powerful implications on the way people are going to see him in US as well around the world.
3. Climate is one of the most important issues facing the world. The tussle between the developed and underdeveloped world over Carbon emissions are going to be another critical test for Obama. How would he balance that?
4. The power centres in the world are shifting to China and India, both emerging strong and fast. How does US react and recognise these new kids on the block?
5. Terror is a real threat looming large. How would US handle delicate situations like the Afghan - Pak - India conflict / dilemna. Currently US is playing the peace monger but the relevance of the new kids along with the terror situation is going to be formidable challenge.
6. US has messed up in Iraq and it looks like it is following course in Afghanistan. Will there be a significant chnage in the American way of dealing with Terror now on? Its Obama's turn to decide.

Obama's aura is formidable (being the Time's man of the year)... the challenges presented are going to test every nerve in Obama as he takes over. It is scary to think but media and people over the world over rate this man... is he the Messiah he is supposed to be?

Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation (PartII)

An interesting article on Business Week about the state of Pakistan. This further extends my initial blog on Pakistan http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2008/gb20081020_947596.htm#readerComments

Pakistan's Economic Crisis

•Even though Pakistan's financial crisis isn't directly linked to Wall Street's credit crunch or to subprime mortgages, the country's leaders seem confident that Pakistan will get its own bailout. President Asif Ali Zardari has spent the last month mending fences with India and playing nice with Washington. Zardari is now in China, where he will ask for a soft loan of as much as $1.5 billion. Why is he so confident Pakistan will get the money, when only recently Iceland had to go begging to Russia? Here are the reasons.

War on Terror

Effective or not, Pakistan is the U.S.'s closest ally in the war on terror. Since 2001, the U.S. has given Pakistan nearly $10 billion in military aid and has taken a keen interest in maintaining some semblance of stability in Islamabad. Even if the U.S. is not in a position to hand over cash right away, it wields influence with Pakistan's creditors and over such common allies as Saudi Arabia

Nuclear Weapons Power

As long as Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons, it is unlikely that foreign governments will allow serious political or economic upheavals that could undermine control of those weapons. There's little danger of Pakistan selling weapons technology for foreign exchange (though this has happened in the past), but a weak central government is worrisome.

Foreign Investors

The Karachi Stock Exchange is barely functional, with onerous limits and artificial price props. But for most of the first half of 2008, it was one of the world's few moderately sized markets that seemed immune from the subprime taint. Foreign investors rushed in, pushing the KSE up nearly 40% by midyear. Now they must wait alongside Karachi's irate small investors to extract their money.

The Friends of Pakistan

Later this month, Pakistan will hold a donor meeting in Abu Dhabi with an informal group called the Friends of Pakistan. There, President Zardari hopes Saudi Arabia will help deal with his country's oil import needs while other nations assist with its debts

China's Friendship
This week, Pakistan has a new friend—China, which Zardari is visiting for four days. With nearly $1.9 trillion in foreign exchange and a decade-long policy of supporting Pakistan as a counterweight to India, China might just prove itself to be the all-weather friend Zardari keeps calling it.

Pakistan on the Brink

Last week, Pakistan's credit rating slipped to second worst in the world, just a step above that of Seychelles. With less than a month and a half of foreign exchange reserves and no more than 10 days of oil supplies at hand (down from 21 days earlier this year), Pakistan truly stands at the brink of bankruptcy.

Foreign lenders

If Pakistan opts to default, creditors stand to lose huge sums at a time when lending markets are already in cardiac arrest.

Is Terror a Political Problem?

Amir Ajmal Kasav.. i am sure he did not bargain for the amount of publicity and diplomatic stalemate that he has generated. At 21, Ajmal Kasav today is the face of the global Jehadi. he might be linked to the Mumbai terror plot, but in essence he could be the same person in 9/11 or in any of the other terrorist attacks world over.
I happened to go through an article some time back written by Swaminathan Iyer in ToI. There have been more proponents to the idea that we need to fight terror at its root: The Idealogy. The analogy given here is that of US covertly using propaganda to show the failure of Communist state to channelise and ferment a lack of trust on Russians during the Afghan Russia conflict. a Compelling thought there. By stamping out the idealogy of Jihad, one makes the movement irrelevant. A Brilliant political move! However, is the answer to this question just in the Politics of state and idealogy? I differ...
An interesting thought on poverty i read sometime back was "poverty was the lack of Economic activity" (which generates wealth and hence the antidote). Probably that is where the answer to the idealogy game is. Driven by hunger, death, malnutrition, unemployment, money, loss of identity... youth all over the world have explored various possible ways of expressing their rage and anger. India as a country is no exception to the rule. What of the naxalite movements in West Bengal, Andhra, Chattisgarh and other such states? What of Punjab and J&K? What of the Azamgarh terrorists who placed bombs in Delhi? The spectre of home grown terrorists is not new to India. We extrapolate the thought to the world. Regions strife with lack of economic prosperity, war, inequities in governance and social systems and civil unrests are the fermenting grounds for terror organization. Ajmal Kassav, a son of a pakore walla took the this path because of lack of economic progress. He was hardened and brain washed by Jihadis and then came the 26/11 terror. I dont condone Ajmal Kassav, but his case provides interesting insights.
Lack of economic progress creates poverty and frustration, which leads young men into the dark world for the lure of money or betterment. Soon these people are spotted and trained in Jihad. Little wonder then that the ravaged states of Africa and countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan or war torn states produce the best jihadis.
Lessons for states and politicans: We have to make people a part of the economic progress. Only when all or most of the people in the lowest levels of the society are involved in functions that enable them to lead their lives better to end poverty and frustration would you be able to nip such idealogies in the bud. Give every man his chance to earn his own bread to the best of his capabilities and allow him to dream and grow for a better future.. that is the way to a world order in peace and stability. Politics and politicians, statesmen and leaders should try to empower societies and states to do so and by doing that you are taking away all and any reasons as to why would one end up frustrated and think about the world of crime.
As a footnote, i am reminded of Pierce Brosnan in "After the sunset" who says "you dont have to think about that (crime), if you are enjoying life (fruits of labour)..."

Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation?

(I had written this article around October 2nd, 2008 on a vacation. Had not been able to publish it for reasons of connectivity)

The reasons for failure of Pakistan as a nation state. ( At this time, i have genuine doubts whether Pakistan has a future as a political entity.)

1. Born out of a significant "anti India" stance, Pakistan as a state has focussed more and most on its defence and military overtures. It really never had an agenda in development as a nation except India bashing. 6 decades later, Pakistan as a society is impoverished, undernourished and under-developed with no signs of looking better in the future.
2:It was an American ally (during cold war), a Taliban ally (during Afghanistan- Russia conflict) , a Chinese ally, an Azad Kashmir proponent, a Nuclear power, an Al Qaeda base and many more. Pakistan army, its defence forces and its secret service, ISI have held its governance ransom to their demands in many ocassions. Military expenditure as a part of the total National GDP in Pakistan has been extremely high because of the war and arms-idealogy that was in the fore-front of the national interests.
3: Its fledgeling democracy never really got going in real terms. In its history from 1947 till date, the prime ministers office was occupied for 32 years, which is about 50% of the total time. The other 50% of the time, the country had been run under presidential rule or martial law.
4: Since as far as i remember, Pakistani economy has only survived off US and world bank aid. There is zero foriegn investment in the country and reliance on international creditors for hard currency inflows has been on the upswing mostly through the decade.
5: With no real social economic development, the citizenry has plunged into destitution and poverty. The poor human development indicators support this arguement. Thus they have taken refuge in the arms of what we call "radical Islam": The idealogical birthground of terrorism.
6: With the military and ISI who were hand in hand with the terror organizations in India, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, this decade's "American war of Terror" has been the cause of Pakistan's undoing.
7: Pakistan is now caught between a deadly cross fire. On one end is the anti terror American axis, which is the only support that Pakistan as an economy really has. On the other hand, Pakistan cannot wipe out its murky past where it has been and still is an active harbour for terrorists. The ISI Army nexus pledge themselves to the Jihad. US of A, the greatest anti thesis and the prime target of Jihad, is Pakistani economy's biggest aid provider.
8: If Pakistan is seen politically all over the globe as a state abetting terrorism, it risks sanctions and loss of support. Withdrawal of that support can plummet Pakistan into a civil war which its society can ill afford. Its social and economic structures are too delicate to be able to breathe without the US respirator.
9: Hardcore elements in the governance will ensure that any process that tries to move away from Radical Islam is quickly stubbed off. The 26/11 Mumbai Terror plot was followed by a very real "coup and military take over" scenario in Pakistan. How ever hard the extremists and supporters of Radical Islam support their faith, they cannot over look the US respirator thus bringing them to a dead lock.
10: Thus Pakistan is in a stalemate where its external relations with US and tottering economy wont let its internal factions act decisively in terms of taking over. On the other hand, these internal factions will not allow the friends of Pakistani Democracy (assume Asif Ali Zardari to be one of them) to do much against the war on terror (accept perhapos Lip service and token arrests).
11. Which ever way it is, the choice is between the devil and deep sea for Pakistan. Whether Asif Ali Zardari would like to accept it or not, Pakistan UN intervention to get hold of things in their country. The sooner the better for him for the way i see it for him, an assasination attempt is not too far off in the present scenario.

On a sign off note, there is this small caricature that i chanced upon in 2002, which really depicts the US - Pak - Al Qaeda - Terror nexus very aptly.

What an Idea, Sirjee!

The silver lining of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks has been the citizens movement that has taken over. Never has been the political class under so much scrutiny and pressure from the citizenry. Elsewhere, in a strife torn state, Jammu and Kashmir, inspite of all the "boycott the polls" directives from the vested interests, people turn up at over 60% in the polling booths. If anything, this to me is the spirit of democracy in flesh and blood. This is Democracy and the belief in it redeemed. Our politicians are still not the best in standard but you can see political parties edging towards a "developmental agenda" slowly but very surely. The Delhi polls in which the incumbents took the development agenda beat the cahllengers who were honking the anti incumbency. It is a very strong message out there.
In times such as these, a very apt ad campaign is what caught my eyes. "Idea" might not be the best and biggest in telecom circles, but their ad campaign is special. It is special in terms of describing what connectivity and telecommunication can bring to the ordinary folks. Starting from a touchy subject of casteism and riots to empowering education and now empowering democracy. Hats off to the campaign for being able to say things so lucidly. And more importantly create a vision and a dream, which doesnot look to be very far fetched.
In a country which has been so instrumental in taking IT to the world, can we look at Online elections/voting? Can we look at scorecards for every constituency tracking progress versus what had been promised? Can we look at Internet/ telecommunications as a means to build consensus on issues regarding an area, state or the country as a whole?
There are multitude possibilities which can start with democratizing information and accessibility, all empowered by an online medium (IT/ Telecom). When will the time for this come?
But so far, this is to Idea: What an idea, sirjee!