Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation? (Part IV): A Failed State

I did not quite expect that i will be writing a part 4 to this series of blogs about Pakistan. Reality is that i am not a Pakistan basher, but then as a state, it is under such a mess that one cant help but ruminate Pakistan's Course: Its present and its Future.

Stratfor (short for Strategic Forum, a US think Tank) has warned in its report Jihadism in 2009: The trends continue, that Pakistan could become a failed state if if it failed to take action against the terror elements and establish government control over ISI, the “rogue spy agency”. Even as Asif Ali zardari, the president of the state, publicly bemoans the death of Benazir, there is no sign of any activity to bring the perpetrators of the Benazir conspiracy to courts of law!

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/Radioactive_Pak_may_turn_fissile_Stratfor_warns_of_a_failed_state/articleshow/4061306.cms

With a dash of irony, i find this report very insightful. Especially if a search: Failed state + Pakistan reports 504000 hits on Google! The only interesting allusion is to teh nuclear warheads in Pakistan. That, is the bigger picture they have tried to complete. An irresponsible and fragile state gurading a nuclear stockpile. That no good news for India. It isnt for good news for US as well, especially since US is Enemy no 1 on the Jihad campaign!

Back to Pakistan and its Failed state status. Fund for peace, a washington based non profit research organization releases a Failed States index every year basis 12 indicators which are social, economic and political in nature. Here’s how the Fund for Peace defines a failed state:

A state that is failing has several attributes. One of the most common is the loss of physical control of its territory or a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Other attributes of state failure include the erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions, an inability to provide reasonable public services, and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community. (Conditions sound familiar! dont they???)

Read the Failed state index reports in details here: http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=99&Itemid=140

Pakistan fares high on that list. No 9 in the failed states around the world. Only Afghanistan amongst the Asian countries is above it! Pakistan's inability of governance of the FATA (Federally administered Tribal Areas) and its more recent loss of Swat valley to Taliban show the democratic government has lost physical control of its territory. That Pakistan has three heads of state: the Prime Minister + President, the Army Chief and the ISI Taliban nexus is a clear-as-daylight fact. The ISI and the army are mostly autonomous in the way they work and thats quite been the way it is since a long time (about 1977 when Zia came to power). Its public services and law and order situation are in doldrums even as one gets to hear that the number of civilians killed in terror/militant activities is 6700 for the calendar year 2008! Click here for casualities for terrorist violence in Pakistan http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm

As far as the international community is concerened, no one doubts that absolute anarchy rules Pakistani and there is not enough political will to fight the extremist forces to give law, order, peace and development a chance!

The question remains an inconvenient truth: Is the Pakistan leadership doing enough to save their nation? Or is another Afghanistan in the making?

Can Left and Congress align again?

As a answer to an ET debate:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4049709.cms

The left and Congress can have a walk in the park only and only if BJP is lurking around in the bushes. The idea i am putting across is, the politics of anti BJP is the only commonality between these two parties. All earlier Congress + Left coalitions have been only studies in convenience and way for Congress to garner Lok Sabha numbers.

I am not debating that Congress is bad or BJP is. The point i make here is that, being the largest two parties in the largest democracy in the world, Congress and BJP should have an active agenda, a plan for progress, which ought to be shared with junta. More and more, these developmental agendas will decide the fate of political parties in the elections. The case in point is Kashmir, which inspite of being strife torn and terrorism plagued voted for Bijli, Sadak and Paani! After elections, in case of a simple majority eluding the winner, post election alliances can be sort with regional parties on the agenda of development as set before elections already.

As far as the political spectrum is concerned, let the Left be "Left". Personally i dont see any leadership, perspective,coherence and vision in Left. From being anti 123 to Singrur fiasco to Achutanandan's comment on "stray dogs" at martyr Unnikrishnan's house to allegations of corruption, Left has not made any significant inroads anywhere in terms of a vision for a unified and developed country.

As an end note, I was impressed by L K Advani's blogs and website. Its very Obamaesque! Congress and BJP need to take a leaf out of Obama's campaign. Both Congress and BJP will have to draft their developmental agendas with or without the Left.

Subhiksha: A Perfect go Bust (Part II)

When i blogged the first time on the unsustainable business model at Subhiksha (September 5th, 2008), which would cause it to go burst, i had not imagined, that i will be doing a second blog on that story.

This is the First Blog Link:
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/09/subhiksha-perfect-go-bust.html

6 months later, my predictions are born true. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4053575.cms
http://www.livemint.com/2009/01/30180828/Subhiksha-on-virtual-collapse.html?h=A4

The Interesting bit about Subhiksha's roll out strategy is somewhere R Subramaniam, Founder CEO, also believed that if the retail model didnot live upto his expectations, he had make money on the real estate of the 1000 odd outlets. The Recession and the Real estate meltdown has now seen to it that he wouldnot be making as much money in reselling the stores as well.

I also find the statement by the company official on zero credit being the reason for the fall to be difficult to comprehend. Till not so long ago, Subhiksha had 1/2/3 months credit running from vendors who eventually then, turned off the supply taps. I have been privy to Vendor management systems in Subhiksha to bear out on the same. Subhiksha employees had not been given 2/3 month salaries even during the times of festival months. It has shut all expansion plans in east India! Majority of employees are out of their jobs and demanding salary arrears. In fact the Delhi Head office of Subhiksha has been locked by the owners of the property on account of non payment of the rents!

A convenient bet gone wrong and a business which never ran right for the lack of adeherence to fundamentals. I give Subhiksha another1 month before it goes belly up!

So long Mr Subramaniyam!

Are we heading towards a socialistic/ communist form of governance / economy now? With bailouts we would see governments’ involvement in running varie

In reply to a debate on Linked in, http://www.linkedin.com/answers?viewQuestion=&questionID=407839&askerID=6067402&browseIdx=0&sik=1233147316767&goback=%2Easr_1_1233147316767&report%2Esuccess=vfLh7ZiQxNtkwQoO3efsNN1zAgQ8WXmCT24lKBBmlHq_pfcN7JydQUoVP_zdv4b8

Disagree.The current crisis shouldnot be seen as fall of capitalism. Capitalism idealogically is more than just "GREED".Nothing lasts infinity. Not even greed. That is as far as i understand the current meltdown. There can be no mastery over risk and no escaping the economic/business cycles.Common sense prevailed over bubble optimism with this burst. No mortage was too absurd, no leverage too great, no structured product too reckess when risk spreading models were so brilliantly engineered. Thats a conception which has been blown away. The business cyle is real. There is a very real relation between supply and demand. You cant sustain a market based on lending when the borrowers dont have the resources to pay back the loans. Thats pretty basic. Misadventures against these axiomatic truthisms is what we pay for.AND YET THAT IS NOT THE FALL OF CAPITALISM!In spirit Capitalism is free enterprise. While 1929 saw a meltdown which was as bad or even worse, that didnot end capitalism. Entrepreneurial endeavours and capitalsim made the world the way it is in terms of achievements despite 13 depressions since 1929. As far as, the state control on business is concerned, Keynes or any other economist didnot limit themselves by saying the government cannot limit itself to being a stakeholder in Capitalsit economies. I wholly agree that presently the government is the only crutch failing banks and businesses are holding on to.Well that is the result of slack governance on the part of the state in the corporate sector. It appears that the US economy didnot learn from its Enron and WorldCom and was waiting for Lehmann brothers to happen.From the sweat shop in Burma to the clouds in the web world and heavy machines, i see capitalist endeavour everywhere. The state has played its part by picking up a 1 trillion dollar penalty for not roping in GREED. Thus i again make the point, Capitalism is one thing, Greed is another.

Insidious effects of the Cultural Cold War

Excerpts of how the philosophy of hatred within masses can damage attempts at peace.

1. Hotel Mohenjo - daro, a Pakistani play has been cancelled in India.
2. January 14th, MNS activistsbarged into a studio where a Pakistani comedian was recording for a TV show.
3. Book stores in Mumbai have had to pull out Pakistani writers works dreading MNS activism and arson.
4. 10 - 15 major shows by Pakistani musicians have been cancelled.

This kind of low grade people to people conflicy can be more corrosive than all out ways.. Insiya Amir, Correspondent.

Culture plays a big part in helping overturn stereotypes asnd providing alternatives to official narratives. When you muffle these voices, you are increasingly left with governments pointing figers at each other, which only increases jingoistic attitudes .. Pakistani writer, Kamila Shamsie

Cultural excahnges build bridges which no amount of politics can achieve. Artists need to travel, they need to introduce their world to new worlds... Fahid Hamid Ali, Pakistani Painter.

People to people conflict, can hieghten tensions as each person will feel targeted individually, leading to more hostility and unreceptivness... Mehr Hussain, Freelance Journalist

It was 2004, when the Indian cricket team went to the friendship cricket series in Pakistan. To me, that series did more good to India - Pakistan than a decade of bus diplomacies! Pakis and Indis are same people from the same cultural seed. We appreciate sufi, Begum Abida Parveen, Ghulam Ali and Junoon as much as they love Amitabh Bachchan, SRK and Indian movies. By erecting embargoes arround cultural exchanges, governments are killing the little ray of hope that we may harbour, one that we call culture.