How can we effect a fundamental change in the Constitution to change this country for better?

Submitted for a NDTV debate/poll
Our political leaders are a mirror image of the society and a citizenry who the govern. After all it is for us that they are elected to the seats of power. However, over the last month or so, follies made by people like R R Patil ( Such small incidents happen in large cities), Vilasrao Deshmukh (RGVs Terror tour of Taj), A R Antulay ( Politicization of Karkare's death), Narendra Modi ( Monetary compensation to Karkare family), Achuthanandan (The Dog at Major Sandeep's house) and now Shekhar Tiwari ( behenji ki Salgira collection waale) put the political class in a very shameful light.
Are these people (who shamefully cover the spectrum of all parties in the land) educated and matured enough to understand the governance and a leadership as a subject?
Questions for debate:
Do you think it is time for a minimum education bar to be set for all MP/MLA contestants?
Do you think it is time to have yearly appraisals ( on websites/ other media) on how our leaders are delivering on their agenda that they promise during elections?
How can constitutional amendments sought to bring out these kind of significant changes in the India?

Why wont Pakistan make it as nation? (Part III)

When i wrote the Part1 and substaantiated it with Part II, i had not known that my thoughts would so quickly be validated by IRI survey on Pakistan.
http://www.dawn.com/2008/12/20/top3.htm
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=HomePage&id=807e81c1-73ef-43b2-b40e-3a4dffff1c06&MatchID1=4856&TeamID1=6&TeamID2=2&MatchType1=1&SeriesID1=1223&MatchID2=4873&TeamID3=1&TeamID4=3&MatchType2=1&SeriesID2=1229&PrimaryID=4856&Headline='Most+Pakistanis+want+Nawaz+Sharif+as+Prez'

88% of the population believes that Pakistan is not headed the right way! 67% believe that democracy has not made any difference to their well being and 59% believe that they would be worse off next year compared to this year. 78% Pakistani's feel less secure in the current circumstances. These numbers are worse than the times of Pervez Musharraf in his days.
Such a high degree of pessimism and discontent is the forbearer of Doom and thats putting things extremely mildly. 67% of the population have lost all faith in democracy as an ideal. Disaffection, discontent, disillusionment run rife amongst the citizens if that is one headline that this survey should emblazon.

These are the same people, who elect governments, pay taxes and are nations top most priorities. If ever, the Pakistani leadership has to learn a lesson and more importantly act on it, it has to be now...

It will require "biting" the "proverbial bullet". I would assume the following points of action for Pakistan:

1. Pull the plug on the army - ISI - Jehadi nexus. Funds that could be well used in developmental projects get syphoned into the terror network. The Pakistani armed forces would have to be neutralized from the extremist poles. Governance and policies should lead the militray and not the other way round for Pakistan. (If required, the president should have the guts to call for an international effort to weed the nexus, which could also mean deployment of UN forces.)
2. Need to clean up the house. All terror bases dismantled completely with all terrorists taken out to the law. This one is tough act as long as the generals and ISI rule the governing machinery.
3. Time Bound action plan to kick off the developmental and infrastructure projects. This will initially mean more debt in a debt laden economy but this time the money has to be well used.
4. Involve Private and international investors to invest and partner in growth (the way it has happened in India). Requires a judicious mix of thought and action. Too much too soon can over - expose the economy. Too less can reduce the pace of change.

But will the Zardaris or the Sharrifs of the world have the conviction, determination and courage to lead Pakistan out of the cesspool they find themselves and Pakistan to be in at this moment. If a call for action now doesnot happen, then Pakistan is pretty much destined doomed.

Now is the Time for Barrack Obama

Over most of 2008, i watched Barrack Hussein Obama overcome herculean odds to become the next president of United States. To me the preliminaries where he fought Hillary Clinton were a greater test of the person than the actual Democrats versus Republicans election against John McCain. For most of the part, Obama never faltered with his message of change must come to America. John McCain's choice of his deputy, the pin up Sarah Palin, was a significant cause of his defeat.



However, this blog does-not deal with that. It deals with Obama, the successor of Bush. For 6 and a half years, Bush was a buffoon on the most important seat in the world. As the president of US, Bush actions were not only jibbed, laughed at, cartooned and caricatured; the enormity of his policies and mistakes have made the world a whole lot more unsafe then it was before. A failed War of Terrorism which saw him burn up trillions without any effect, a domestic economy reeling under the financial crisis, the fall of the wall street and the big american firms, failed agreements: there is precious little to show on his result card, as Bush bows out. I would assume that in the history of American presidency Bush was the most lampooned president ever (not withstanding the Media multiplication). Little wonder then that George W Bush, the 43rd President of America ends his term in a manner of a lame duck with a fitting tribute to his 8 years at the oval office, a size 10 boot. (From Iraq with love). The world lays seize to very real threats such as climate change, terror and a long depression. Mr Bush retires with a next to zero score on his report card. His eccentricities and funny ways have not helped his cause and reputation either. Love to see this comic strip called Bush in Big Brother or something.

At this time, the world and the american citizenry looks upto Obama with hope and encouragement. They see him to be an agent of Change, a politically savvy, self aware and intelligent spokesperson. One that the world needs so badly at this time. Apart from his persona, Obama has won hearst and minds with his actions. I singularly find, the appointment of Hillary Clinton to his team as a masterstroke. Hillary is too good an administrator to miss in any team that roots for change. Her inclusion into the cabinet signals that Obama means business and if that means teaming up with his arch nemesis to lead US out of the woods, he wouldnot bauly at it. (I wish the Indian politicians learnt a few things from Obama). As Obama prepares to take over the white house, he has a manifold agenda which includes putting some order back to the mess Bush is leaving behind and activating an agenda which propels change for better. Obama faces a stiff challenge in many and more fronts...
1. Leading the US out of the economic mess that it is. From being a recession that is worst in the last 80 years to a real time deflation threat. Obama and the Fed will have to look at means and measures to put the super economy of US back to the wheels.
2. The Big three are going under. The Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Meryll Lynch, AIG, Citigroup and many more are on Fed respirators. It is going to be a tough bullet to bite as Obama would presides over "how to overhaul the economy?". This has very powerful implications on the way people are going to see him in US as well around the world.
3. Climate is one of the most important issues facing the world. The tussle between the developed and underdeveloped world over Carbon emissions are going to be another critical test for Obama. How would he balance that?
4. The power centres in the world are shifting to China and India, both emerging strong and fast. How does US react and recognise these new kids on the block?
5. Terror is a real threat looming large. How would US handle delicate situations like the Afghan - Pak - India conflict / dilemna. Currently US is playing the peace monger but the relevance of the new kids along with the terror situation is going to be formidable challenge.
6. US has messed up in Iraq and it looks like it is following course in Afghanistan. Will there be a significant chnage in the American way of dealing with Terror now on? Its Obama's turn to decide.

Obama's aura is formidable (being the Time's man of the year)... the challenges presented are going to test every nerve in Obama as he takes over. It is scary to think but media and people over the world over rate this man... is he the Messiah he is supposed to be?

Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation (PartII)

An interesting article on Business Week about the state of Pakistan. This further extends my initial blog on Pakistan http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2008/gb20081020_947596.htm#readerComments

Pakistan's Economic Crisis

•Even though Pakistan's financial crisis isn't directly linked to Wall Street's credit crunch or to subprime mortgages, the country's leaders seem confident that Pakistan will get its own bailout. President Asif Ali Zardari has spent the last month mending fences with India and playing nice with Washington. Zardari is now in China, where he will ask for a soft loan of as much as $1.5 billion. Why is he so confident Pakistan will get the money, when only recently Iceland had to go begging to Russia? Here are the reasons.

War on Terror

Effective or not, Pakistan is the U.S.'s closest ally in the war on terror. Since 2001, the U.S. has given Pakistan nearly $10 billion in military aid and has taken a keen interest in maintaining some semblance of stability in Islamabad. Even if the U.S. is not in a position to hand over cash right away, it wields influence with Pakistan's creditors and over such common allies as Saudi Arabia

Nuclear Weapons Power

As long as Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons, it is unlikely that foreign governments will allow serious political or economic upheavals that could undermine control of those weapons. There's little danger of Pakistan selling weapons technology for foreign exchange (though this has happened in the past), but a weak central government is worrisome.

Foreign Investors

The Karachi Stock Exchange is barely functional, with onerous limits and artificial price props. But for most of the first half of 2008, it was one of the world's few moderately sized markets that seemed immune from the subprime taint. Foreign investors rushed in, pushing the KSE up nearly 40% by midyear. Now they must wait alongside Karachi's irate small investors to extract their money.

The Friends of Pakistan

Later this month, Pakistan will hold a donor meeting in Abu Dhabi with an informal group called the Friends of Pakistan. There, President Zardari hopes Saudi Arabia will help deal with his country's oil import needs while other nations assist with its debts

China's Friendship
This week, Pakistan has a new friend—China, which Zardari is visiting for four days. With nearly $1.9 trillion in foreign exchange and a decade-long policy of supporting Pakistan as a counterweight to India, China might just prove itself to be the all-weather friend Zardari keeps calling it.

Pakistan on the Brink

Last week, Pakistan's credit rating slipped to second worst in the world, just a step above that of Seychelles. With less than a month and a half of foreign exchange reserves and no more than 10 days of oil supplies at hand (down from 21 days earlier this year), Pakistan truly stands at the brink of bankruptcy.

Foreign lenders

If Pakistan opts to default, creditors stand to lose huge sums at a time when lending markets are already in cardiac arrest.

Is Terror a Political Problem?

Amir Ajmal Kasav.. i am sure he did not bargain for the amount of publicity and diplomatic stalemate that he has generated. At 21, Ajmal Kasav today is the face of the global Jehadi. he might be linked to the Mumbai terror plot, but in essence he could be the same person in 9/11 or in any of the other terrorist attacks world over.
I happened to go through an article some time back written by Swaminathan Iyer in ToI. There have been more proponents to the idea that we need to fight terror at its root: The Idealogy. The analogy given here is that of US covertly using propaganda to show the failure of Communist state to channelise and ferment a lack of trust on Russians during the Afghan Russia conflict. a Compelling thought there. By stamping out the idealogy of Jihad, one makes the movement irrelevant. A Brilliant political move! However, is the answer to this question just in the Politics of state and idealogy? I differ...
An interesting thought on poverty i read sometime back was "poverty was the lack of Economic activity" (which generates wealth and hence the antidote). Probably that is where the answer to the idealogy game is. Driven by hunger, death, malnutrition, unemployment, money, loss of identity... youth all over the world have explored various possible ways of expressing their rage and anger. India as a country is no exception to the rule. What of the naxalite movements in West Bengal, Andhra, Chattisgarh and other such states? What of Punjab and J&K? What of the Azamgarh terrorists who placed bombs in Delhi? The spectre of home grown terrorists is not new to India. We extrapolate the thought to the world. Regions strife with lack of economic prosperity, war, inequities in governance and social systems and civil unrests are the fermenting grounds for terror organization. Ajmal Kassav, a son of a pakore walla took the this path because of lack of economic progress. He was hardened and brain washed by Jihadis and then came the 26/11 terror. I dont condone Ajmal Kassav, but his case provides interesting insights.
Lack of economic progress creates poverty and frustration, which leads young men into the dark world for the lure of money or betterment. Soon these people are spotted and trained in Jihad. Little wonder then that the ravaged states of Africa and countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan or war torn states produce the best jihadis.
Lessons for states and politicans: We have to make people a part of the economic progress. Only when all or most of the people in the lowest levels of the society are involved in functions that enable them to lead their lives better to end poverty and frustration would you be able to nip such idealogies in the bud. Give every man his chance to earn his own bread to the best of his capabilities and allow him to dream and grow for a better future.. that is the way to a world order in peace and stability. Politics and politicians, statesmen and leaders should try to empower societies and states to do so and by doing that you are taking away all and any reasons as to why would one end up frustrated and think about the world of crime.
As a footnote, i am reminded of Pierce Brosnan in "After the sunset" who says "you dont have to think about that (crime), if you are enjoying life (fruits of labour)..."

Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation?

(I had written this article around October 2nd, 2008 on a vacation. Had not been able to publish it for reasons of connectivity)

The reasons for failure of Pakistan as a nation state. ( At this time, i have genuine doubts whether Pakistan has a future as a political entity.)

1. Born out of a significant "anti India" stance, Pakistan as a state has focussed more and most on its defence and military overtures. It really never had an agenda in development as a nation except India bashing. 6 decades later, Pakistan as a society is impoverished, undernourished and under-developed with no signs of looking better in the future.
2:It was an American ally (during cold war), a Taliban ally (during Afghanistan- Russia conflict) , a Chinese ally, an Azad Kashmir proponent, a Nuclear power, an Al Qaeda base and many more. Pakistan army, its defence forces and its secret service, ISI have held its governance ransom to their demands in many ocassions. Military expenditure as a part of the total National GDP in Pakistan has been extremely high because of the war and arms-idealogy that was in the fore-front of the national interests.
3: Its fledgeling democracy never really got going in real terms. In its history from 1947 till date, the prime ministers office was occupied for 32 years, which is about 50% of the total time. The other 50% of the time, the country had been run under presidential rule or martial law.
4: Since as far as i remember, Pakistani economy has only survived off US and world bank aid. There is zero foriegn investment in the country and reliance on international creditors for hard currency inflows has been on the upswing mostly through the decade.
5: With no real social economic development, the citizenry has plunged into destitution and poverty. The poor human development indicators support this arguement. Thus they have taken refuge in the arms of what we call "radical Islam": The idealogical birthground of terrorism.
6: With the military and ISI who were hand in hand with the terror organizations in India, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, this decade's "American war of Terror" has been the cause of Pakistan's undoing.
7: Pakistan is now caught between a deadly cross fire. On one end is the anti terror American axis, which is the only support that Pakistan as an economy really has. On the other hand, Pakistan cannot wipe out its murky past where it has been and still is an active harbour for terrorists. The ISI Army nexus pledge themselves to the Jihad. US of A, the greatest anti thesis and the prime target of Jihad, is Pakistani economy's biggest aid provider.
8: If Pakistan is seen politically all over the globe as a state abetting terrorism, it risks sanctions and loss of support. Withdrawal of that support can plummet Pakistan into a civil war which its society can ill afford. Its social and economic structures are too delicate to be able to breathe without the US respirator.
9: Hardcore elements in the governance will ensure that any process that tries to move away from Radical Islam is quickly stubbed off. The 26/11 Mumbai Terror plot was followed by a very real "coup and military take over" scenario in Pakistan. How ever hard the extremists and supporters of Radical Islam support their faith, they cannot over look the US respirator thus bringing them to a dead lock.
10: Thus Pakistan is in a stalemate where its external relations with US and tottering economy wont let its internal factions act decisively in terms of taking over. On the other hand, these internal factions will not allow the friends of Pakistani Democracy (assume Asif Ali Zardari to be one of them) to do much against the war on terror (accept perhapos Lip service and token arrests).
11. Which ever way it is, the choice is between the devil and deep sea for Pakistan. Whether Asif Ali Zardari would like to accept it or not, Pakistan UN intervention to get hold of things in their country. The sooner the better for him for the way i see it for him, an assasination attempt is not too far off in the present scenario.

On a sign off note, there is this small caricature that i chanced upon in 2002, which really depicts the US - Pak - Al Qaeda - Terror nexus very aptly.

What an Idea, Sirjee!

The silver lining of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks has been the citizens movement that has taken over. Never has been the political class under so much scrutiny and pressure from the citizenry. Elsewhere, in a strife torn state, Jammu and Kashmir, inspite of all the "boycott the polls" directives from the vested interests, people turn up at over 60% in the polling booths. If anything, this to me is the spirit of democracy in flesh and blood. This is Democracy and the belief in it redeemed. Our politicians are still not the best in standard but you can see political parties edging towards a "developmental agenda" slowly but very surely. The Delhi polls in which the incumbents took the development agenda beat the cahllengers who were honking the anti incumbency. It is a very strong message out there.
In times such as these, a very apt ad campaign is what caught my eyes. "Idea" might not be the best and biggest in telecom circles, but their ad campaign is special. It is special in terms of describing what connectivity and telecommunication can bring to the ordinary folks. Starting from a touchy subject of casteism and riots to empowering education and now empowering democracy. Hats off to the campaign for being able to say things so lucidly. And more importantly create a vision and a dream, which doesnot look to be very far fetched.
In a country which has been so instrumental in taking IT to the world, can we look at Online elections/voting? Can we look at scorecards for every constituency tracking progress versus what had been promised? Can we look at Internet/ telecommunications as a means to build consensus on issues regarding an area, state or the country as a whole?
There are multitude possibilities which can start with democratizing information and accessibility, all empowered by an online medium (IT/ Telecom). When will the time for this come?
But so far, this is to Idea: What an idea, sirjee!

Next terror attack on US will originate in Pakistan, your thoughts?

My views of the non challant and myopic views of The US government in dealing with the terror crisis.
http://www.linkedin.com/groupAnswers?viewQuestionAndAnswers=&gid=51584&discussionID=658312&sik=1228546149185&split_page=1&report%2Esuccess=PdmtybENV2mnc3t3p8JpWuFiB1ZhaD9OnKUphCsu7LRNRYTOK1wrHHO_rcDN0rVBb1wuxUyPL-SZ
http://digg.com/world_news/Next_terror_attack_on_US_will_originate_from_Pakistan

US's myopic views of the world is a substance of cartooning and folklore. The last count, US had spent 1 trillion dollars on its "war against terror" with little to show as results. A few hundred missiles, a few thousand corpses and a handful of terrorists killed is how the report card reads even today. It is singularly frustrating as to why would the policy makers blind themselves out on the larger picture. The threat today is Radical Islamic movement (not to be confused by Islam, the religion). While US marines try to nuke out the western province of Pakistan searching for Al Qaeda rats, the "radical islam" movement has augmented itself into agencies in the heart of Pakistan and elsewhere, where the idealogies of radical islam find blind supporters. As such stamping of AL Qaeda will not be an end to terror. AQ has already spawned many more cells which will take the "jihad" to the next frontier. Coming to the subject of Pakistan: Clearly the Army and the ISI hold all the chords of a puppet democratic government. As a state, 60 years post its making, Pakistan remains to be a failure. Its economy and society in tatters, this is state on the brink of anarchy, how ever hard the Pakistan government tries to supress the facts. Lawlessness and anarchy rule this land. No wonder then that Osama, Dawood, Azhar and other terrorists continue to live under the government/ISI patronage and operate freely from this land. In such conditions, the next terror attacks whether be London, New York or Mumbai are destined to originate here. Thus instead of state visits like that of Rice (i wonder what benefit does it bring to either India or Pakistan), the international community would have to bargain for a strike at identified Pakistani locations to purge it from these perpetrators of terror. One might have to factor in wholesome elimination of ISI as well. As long as this hard bullet is not bitten, US may choose to spend another trillion (which its own economy needs so badly) and yet be way off the mark in striking terror out forever. Dont expect the lame duck Bush to be doing anything more to help this. Am pinning my hopes on Obama.

Low Cost Housing: The next step to beat housing crisis woes

In an earlier blog on September 4th 2008, i had made a few comments on the fact that many of the realty industry giants: DLF, Unitech, Hiranandani and many others have notable projects which are mostly HIG or MIG+ ones. These companies had not invested much in the economy housing projects or projects which would be less than 10 lakhs/ 450 - 800 square foot size. Read point no 6.7.8 in the blog: http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008_09_01_archive.html.

Three months later, now that the crushing reality of financial crisis and recession is rumbling the world economy, the first steps have now been taken by large realtors towards these economy housing schemes. http://news.in.msn.com/business/article.aspx?cp-documentid=1715713. Interestingly the reasons sighted for shifting focus from HIG and MIG+ housing is

1. Higher diversity in projects leading to better cash flows
2. Be a part of the Priority sector leding to allow banks refinance at concessional rates and fulfill norms of directing lending
3. The Government believes that low cost housing finance may a part of the solutions package to give the much needed fillip to the housing sector in India.

Home Minister Shivraj Patil resigns

http://www.livemint.com/2008/11/30121747/Home-Minister-Shivraj-Patil-re.html

Shivraj Patil's resignation comes as a congress-scappegoat kind of situation to keep the media-opposition-citizenry at bay.However is resignation the just answer? For someone who has been willfully being letting easy on terror situations such as the Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Jaipur- Delhi blasts, the Mumbai attack was the last straw. But should he not be tried at the courts for failing to do his duties while at power? How many more men must dies in Bomb Blasts ( as in Jaipur, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Delhi) or in Terror Attacks(as in Mumbai) before we idenify that it is people like Shivraj Patil and there callousness to such events which result in the same destruction patterns repeated time and again.This man deserves being punished in the courts of law... or will it be his allegiance to the Gandhi clan which will over ride all national concerns yet again.Are you listeing Mrs Sonia Gandhi?

US suspects Kashmir-based group behind attacks: Official

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/US_suspects_Kashmir-based_group_behind_attacks_Official/articleshow/3774358.cms#write
I wonder just how many more 9/11s and innocent lives will it take for US and the international community to understand that it is the Al Qaeda and LeT which have perpetrated the terror. I wonder when the sense will dawn on the inetrnational community that Pakistan is under anarchy and is being run by a cartel of extremists, ISI and terror organizations. Pakistan will never be able to fight this cancer. It will take an international effort to get rid of this. Do we want more of such attacks happening at Paris, London, Brussels and other trade centres or can the civilized world move towards a definitive and coordinated attempt to get rid of this?

Can politicians ever stand united against terror?

As every Indian i too am deeply hurt by the terror attack on Mumbai. My response to a discussion on NDTV.com: http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/mumbaiterrorstrike/Election_Story.aspx?ID=NEWEN20080074624&type=News

My heart fills up with pride for the valiance of the army, navy, NSG and Maharashtra Police men who have braved death. At the same time, i am ashamed of the political resolve in the country. In times of distress, two senior leaders L K Advani and Manmohan Singh could not present a united face of the Indian Politics to the extremists and the nation at large. I seriously hope that R R Patil, the Maharashtra Home Minister was inebriated when he made the comment on "such small incidences". Repeatedly, incidences such as blasts in Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Delhi and now this terror attack at Mumbai. Our Home Minister is quick to "react" with his high level meetings. There is no end to this terror. As an Indian, i wonder to who or what purpose am i paying my taxes?
In days to come this will become an electoral issue with BJP, BSP, SP and others attcking Congress for its failure to tackle these situations. Question is... even when BJP was at power was it able to do anything post the "Attack on Parlaiment". So under what assumption will it be attacking congress for its "failures"?
The Elections are also a farce because for an ordinary citizen in the country the choice is betwen the devil and deep sea. WHy cant we have an accountable system on these issues? When will the qabbling political class wake up an address the real issues rather than bickering over each others short comings. Is this what you call a democracy?

Thats what Delhi wants

I have been an avid reader of the Times and the Eco Times before Mint made me migrate from ET. However there was this interesting survey amongst Delhites that HT conducted along with another agency. Felt compelled to write my thoughts on the same.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=6b3c1530-26be-44f1-803f-4b297b025666

Delhi, the capital of India sees Paani, Sadak and Bijli in that order, to be the biggest electoral issues. Other issues such as security and environment do make it to the list at lower berths. This is a marked departure from the initial thoughts that after the faithful blasts in Delhi, people would look at Security as the number 1 concern.

Isnt that a shame? The capital of the country is the showcase to the world. Yet here we are in the capital of 125 crore 4th largest, 1 trillion dollar economy nation that is still battling the essentials of the Maslow's Hierarchy. Its been 60 years and Delhi Jal Board is yet grappling with solutions of providing safe and continuous water to its denizens. Only a few days back, i remember reading that top ranking officials of the DJB being remanded to judicial custody on charges of not being able to do anything about releasing sewage into Yamuna. DJB has not been able to take care of its biggest asset, The Yamuna and on the other hand there is no solution to water shortages. I commend the judiciary for taking a first and firm step in punishing corrupt officials. I only hope such sentences and issues are brought to its logical conslusions in long incarcerations for public officials defiling the power vested into them.

Any city should have 7% of its area under metalled roads. Thats one of the tennets of city planning. The corresponding number for Delhi is 3.5%. There have been flyovers and toll roads and expressways made but the progress has not mainly been in line with the population of vehicles. One interesting case of road planning is Singapore city, which has White, Yellow and Pink number plates for the city vehicles on which taxes are paid. The Pink ones are offlimits inside the city, the yellow ones are allowed to move only in certain times and the white ones have free access. This allows to keep the heavy trucks and slow tempos off the road! In Delhi, you only need to send the weekly Hafta to our friendly neighbourhood traffic constable to do everything and more within or without the law permitting it.

Electricity is a national problem and will continue to be as long electrical subsidies are free for farmers and Transmission losses are not attended to. We dont have policies to deal with electrical theft and otherwise our populist measures suck out electricity in the farmlands more than the requirements.

One question that hit me: If Delhi struggles for these basic amenities 60 years after independence, what might that state of the interiors be?

Again, the need for accountable systems and sharing of information in public through internet and other medium is necessitated. Hope we are able to get into that mode fast for this country'e sake.

Hope in the horizon, obstacles in the vicinity (Part II)

Thus in true sense, amongst the drivers of the economy, it is the service sector which is getting all the growth for India. India is woefully short of adequacy in manufacturing and agricultural sectors. This is not a revelation but an accepted truth across the nation.By and large this has been because basics such as healthcare, drinking water and infrastructure has not been distributed equally and in overall terms are in-adequate.

Thus the state and central governments need to prioritize on building roads, providing safe water and health care, meeting the power needs of the country, work on irrigation projects for year round water supply to farms and bring business revenues under the tax net.

India has had a political record where good governance and populist measures have not gone hand in hand. It is time to realise that Good governance translates to longer terms at offices if you are working right and working at the basics. Else the divide between the elite class in the cosmopolitan (India 1) and the masses (India 2) will keep increasing. An India 1 and India 2 story is amusing but dangerous in its long term effects where there will be constant constraints at growth and we will not be able to realise the full potential of India. It also risks a civil unrest. Getting these two Indias together will fire the growth engine. That would ultimately take India to its glory story 10-15 years in the future.

Hope in the horizon, obstacles in the vicinity (Part I)

Historic changes in the world order have more been the outcomes of events such as the World Wars, Cold War, Atom Bomb, Iraq Conflict,9/11, Taliban, Serbia - Croatia etc. The uprising thats shaken the world this year is not as violent as any of the earlier events. However, the change ushered will be as dramatic or more. Yes, we are talking of the Financial crisis which has made headlines through the second half of the year and from the looks of it will be visible through a large part of 2009. Many of the western economies are under seize and there is a domino toppling effect is being felt world over from Australia to Africa. The reaction predictably is that of disbelief, shock, awe and despair. Billions have been lost to stock exchange crashes, industries are fumbling on bankruptcy, Retrenchment and job cuts are regulars on news headlines and economies are in doldrums.

Many governments world wide are giving of special packages to industries and banking sectors to support them collapsing. Economists and politicians are divided on opinion as to how to overcome the crisis. A $700 billion aid sanctioned by US treasury has been follwed by largeese by other government treasuries (predominantly the Europeans). In the deep dark hour, two economies, that of India and China are being looked at with some hope. While Recesseion cannot be ruled out given the global nature of trade and forex inflows and outflows, these economies are some what insulated from the spine breaking consequences. True that they have their share of problems in terms of Inflation, Infrastructure and others, but their ascendance to higher pedestals and status in the world economy is unmistakable.

From an Indian Stand point, China is far ahead of India in economy terms. The Dragon has started flying even while the tiger takes baby steps forward. However, the walking tiger is also huge encouragement.

However a few things that India needs to address (and is addressing it as well)

1. India's ascendance has been lopsided in terms of service economy. Software and brainware is where India scores higher than China.

2. Manufacturing, however has not been India's forte. That is where China whacks us and most of the westernized economies of the world.

3. There are improvements in the Agricultural sector, but the pace is frustratingly slow.

I appreciate the Government's efforts in terms of supporting Infrastructure. The basics of roads, railroads, electricity and sanitation needs to be in place as early as possible. Sadly our improvement in these aspects has been much behind schedule. "Bharat Nirman" (see pic), a congress project has been a failure due to lack of political willingness and corruption. Irrigation and health services have improved but the gap between India and other nations (Even African nations) is woeful. According to a study in the year 2000, Israel had 100 times less arable land than India and its produce was 10 times more in terms of yield. Similarly, according to a recent article, manufacturing units in Tax haven Tamil Nadu are operating lesser shifts not because shortage in demand but because of inadequacy in power supply.

Development Areas & Metrics Target (2005 - 2009)/Achievement (2005- 2008)

Irrigation (Area in Million Hectares) 10/5 (50% achieved)

Drinking Water (No of Habitations) 603639/385353 (64% achieved)

Roads (No of Habitations Covered) 66802/20871 (31% achieved)

Roads (Upgrade & New Connectivity) 340316/146905 (43% Achieved)

Housing (Houses in Millions) 6/5.04 (84% achieved)

Electrification (No of Villages) 125000/48176 (39% achieved)

BPL Households 23/2.29 (10% achieved)

Telephone Connectivity (No of Villages) 66822/51973 (78% achieved)

(to be continued)

An accountable political system

For once the French president has gone beyond Carla Bruni in making a statement about Dollar loosing its sheen as a global currency.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Forex/Dollar_is_no_longer_the_worlds_king_pin_currency_Sarkozy/rssarticleshow/3710105.cms

Only some time back i came across this feed as well on India and China. the asian super power economies also failing to bail out the world economy. (The fairy tale thought that India and China will undo the evils of a banking disorder worldwide is a chimeric one. Feels good as an Indian though.)

Then there is a also the clamor from the Indian contingent to honour it with greater status than the Bretton Woods accorded it. This was a part of the G 20 meet and it seeks to undo the historical mistake of under rating India's role in the world economy.

On The home turf, there is also Nandan Nilekani who is writing about how India is climbing on its world superpower status. All this makes me proud. Feels good that a nation which had lost some of its stature in the world after the 1800s is gaining it back in 2000s! The Indian Business Community and the Indian Intellect has a healthy contribution to this achievement. While the governance has made some contribution to all of this, yet it is far from being an active agent ringing the change in.

Governance in India is still a far cry from a Obama-esque "change" philosophy to turn the country into a better place and the citizens a better lot. It is governed by the politics of religion and regionalism. A 123 agreement which was the only natural way forward tok an year to get through the parliament. Hygiene and Healthcare are stil tottering way behind the world living indexes. We dont have enough doctirs, enough medicals, enough health centres to impart a basic level of hygiene to our citizenry. Our country is electrified only on paper. Education and literacy levels are moving upwards but most of it is not even basic. We dont have roads, we dont have drains, we dont have drinking water, we dont have a sound irrgation system. At the end of it all, the representatives in the democratic government are a corrupt lot with no accountability to his people and the system.

Can this change? Yes it can. WIth the advent of IT as a media, there is no beter way to ask for systems of accountability. Can ministers be answerable to media and the public on questions answered in open forums on the net? Can there be an independent assessment of developmental projects and efforts of these lot of ministers? You may need to create provisions in the constitution but it can be done.

So why does it not happen that way? Lack of political consenses. When a corrupt party judges another corrupt party, it is basically collusion to fake it before the Junta.

Media has been playing a role in establishing such systems but the efforts have not been concerted and probably few and far between. It is time to ask for such accountabilities to be mandated from the representatives of the people in the parliament.

Without that, we shall always be "just short" in terms of realising our potential ever and always.

How can we increase revenue in low ARPU market?

http://www.linkedin.com/groupAnswers?viewQuestionAndAnswers=&gid=137157&discussionID=201939&sik=1224326366368&commentID=310731&goback=%2Ehom%23commentID_310716%2Ehom#commentID_310731
(In answer to a generic queston on Linked in about the dynamics of increasing ARPUs)

Hi Syed

In such times, when voice and text is commoditizing, the buzzword is services as all the other 5 answers here indicate. However, it is more than a ringtone, content, games etc. M Commerce/ Market Services has answers but they wont be easy in coming. 3G services is another interesting answer.(in developing countries). However in true sense 3G and other market services will be a long haul and sustained investment game. Few questions that need to be first thought through before comitting resources

1. Will operators monetize services from the start (meaning lower adoption rates) or introduce a free service first and then monetize the full monty (meaning the customer will upgrade)
2. We are talking of changing consumer behaviour- thats a long incubation
3. How do you account for loss in revenues due to churn or a competitor running a more attractive price for the same service?...
4.... hence the risks to the returns versus investments.

In a country like India, these considerations are significantly impacting the Operator decisions and willingness to commit investments required. Both these solutions do need long partnerships and incubation periods. These solutions need to be looked at from a ROI versus Investment perspective. This is a long haul but a source of competitive advantage and but obviously higher revenues (ARPUs).

My opinion on this: Models can fail, platforms will not. Models meaninging stand alone business models. To generate long term cash flows, we need to look at Platforms, for instance, mobile manufacturer - Operator - Fertiliser companies - Meterological department - Banks - Travel Agencies - Others. This downturn is a good time to forge these links. Only when you take "all under one roof" approach, will you be able to compell the consumer to dish that much extra which is going to add the whole lot more to your ARPU.

The fall of Capitalism or what?

( In response to a discussion floated in a Linked group...http://www.linkedin.com/groupAnswers)

Hi Srini
Brilliant work on the tabling the facts. But the inferences can perhaps be slightly better 1. The bankruptcy of a few Financial institutions cannot be termed as the fall of capitalism. As long as there are entrepreneurs, Capitalism will be. 2. Agree with you on wasteful expenditures that America has incurred on the trillion dollar "terror" war without much ensuing out of it but the current acount deficit. 3. Nothing substitutes the basics in financial sector. This fall in the banking system is however the fall of over optimism and over leveraging of the mortages and other banking tools without a solid base. 4. My feel is that the financial Tsunami is going to travel eastward to Asia in some direct form or indirect form. Already European banks are feeling the ground under their feet buckle to the pressures. 5. However the more eastward this Tsunami travels the lesser will be its intensity. While it has affected the whole of the American banking system, and part of the European banks, its effect eastwrd will be lesser in scale. 6. For India,liberalisation was a panacea. Ironically however, the gradual rate of oepning up of thefinancial sector has made sure the risks and exposures are not as substantial. 7. It is a good time for economies like India and China to surge ahead. 8. While getting ahead is easier, India will require some discipline to forge the pace. Wasteful rural subsidies must have to stop. Infrastructure must grow faster and we need qulaity out there. 9. For a good 40 years, India was a partly socialistic economy. However at this time, our progress and deliverance lies in judicious capitalism. 10. The Indian capitalist is a thoroughbred and i for one vet for the Indian capitalist to play a significant role in shaping the future of ths country. Which ever way you see it, Srini, we are still talking ideals of capitalism as a means of deliverance whether be India, China or the sinking US. So its not the end of Capitalism, just that it is changing grounds probably...

No easy foothold for foreign companies in Indian mobile market

My take on the road forward on 3G in the country: The new entrants versus the established players

http://www.livemint.com/2008/01/06121309/2008/09/22215427/No-easy-foothold-for-foreign-c.html?d=2

Very well written Devidutta!

In fact you have closed on all macro issues regarding the 3G subject. My take on the issues brought up...

1.The problem that has been with the Indian telecom operators is that most of them have taken the lowest cost route to the consumers.

2.The call rates are ridiculously low and the operators are bent over for adding subscribers. (always not a profitable level)

3.Operators have not really looked into the quality of the services and the coming of Number Portability would create a churn amongst dissatisfied users.

4.The new license holders starting to launch their services would create more competition.

5. Absence of a PAN India footprint would be a serious limiting factor for the new entrants (both 2G and 3G). However operator infrastructure sharing and collaborations can be used to tide over these problems.

6. As far as the 3G spectrum is concerned, the entrenched players would try to make it a price game.

7. This is because the existing operators know least tariff route the best. Their business models support enonomies of scale!

8. For a foreign entrant, the best differentiating route would be quality and exclusivity of service!

9. 3G is not something that would go down to the rural areas in a hurry

10. Instead if the cities are focus, then the clear point of differentiation is service. Trust me 3G needs more than Service. It would probably also thrive on exclusivity.

11. Thus profit models would have to centred on the broadcast/feed quality and customer centric services. There is a business model out there.

12. A dog fight with the Airtel/Vodas of India would mean loss of blood. Thus the new operators would need to avoid a tariff fight.

13. On a later day, once these operators get their critical mass going, they could look at expansion to tioer 2/3 and so on...

Retail Special: Coming Up, New formats, Specialities

http://www.livemint.com/Articles/2007/12/09222808/Retail-special----Coming-up.html

( The first part of a discussion with Mr Kishore Biyani on the sustainability of the retail revolution in India)

Mr Biyani,

Thanks for ushering in the Retail revolution in this country. Two questions that i have at this time in the context of 2010: the watershed year. In this era of shareholder value and ROI,

Question 1:How do you think that the skyrocketing realty prices will impact the retail chains?

Question 2: It is expected that the current financial turmoil would continue well into 2009/10. Do you see retail being impacted by lesser consumer spends?

Question 3:I very much buy into the speciality retailing as the next point of differentiation. However, without trained and qualified personel behind the "speciality retailing", it would be a false bet.

Your Comments sir...

Is there something wrong with ICICI?

(My first interactions on issues of Banking. Though i am not well versed with Banking sector as a whole, but my comments on banking are more from an economy and effect-on-economy perspective. Full article on http://www.livemint.com/2008/09/22083329/Is-there-something-wrong-with.html)

Hi Tamal,

What happens when a growing economy de-regulates critical sectors and industries? I am not against de regulation, infact i am a proponent for it. However, i am commenting upon the trend of market skimming. The pattern that emerges when a critical sector is de regulated and FDIs allowed to flow in, is that there are quick investments in the economy. Most of this investment is attractive, not necessarily sustainable. Attractive means immediate or medium term profit based investments. Long term investments require rigour, discipline, intent and time. They would not be attractive initially and would give you average benefits over the medium and long term. They are not a function of Sales Targets and Pressures. In trying to skim the market and extract the most in profits and Dividends many companies only create a small affluent urban base.This is unsustainable in tough conditions when the small base doesnot deliver. I dont intend to say exactly the same about ICICI bank. However, your point on wholesale versus Retail deposits and structured derivatives and high growth and leveraged equity avers to the thought. I do think that ICICI bank is one of the biggest pillars and powerhouses of the financial eco system, but one gets the feeling that ICICI bank could also have bet it wrong.

Thanks Manas

Of Infrastructure and Capital Statements II

(extending the discussion with Raju Narisetti, the Editor of Mint, my views on the bad quality of the infrastructure is extended thru ths discussion. http://blogs.livemint.com/blogs/romanticrealist/archive/2008/09/01/killer-roads-in-india-and-rethinking-the-death-penalty.aspx?CommentPosted=true#commentmessage )
Hi Raju
Capital Punishment is a compelling thought. However is that a panacea of the corruption evils? Hardly! In my views, i tend to agree with Arm Chair guy. The bad quality of roads is just the precuror. From environment to poverty to health care, education and business and more... bad governance prevails everywhere.Corruption is omnipresent! To take the points i suggested a little further
1. As a corporate executive i have metrics, tolls, reviews and score card. I am evaluated on the basis of that.
2. For a business as large as 1 billion people and a trillion dollar economy, where are these management/administration fundamentals? Who does the check? Where are the audit reports
3. Media has been up in arms trying to go after such issues, but that is more from a sensationalizing stand point.Good media is impartial and we seriously need media to start educating the millions.
4. There is this office of the president/governor.That to me is a complete drain on the exchequer unless they can take the position, of safeguarding the public interest. Can they do the audits?
5. I again come back to my previous claims. Socially responsible people need to review and evaluate the government and the officials...Media is to be the voice of the people / neutral medium and the enabler is to be the gubernatorial offices.
I know the constitution doesnot provide any framework on this.. But then we need to start some where.
Finally on the roads infrastructure front, extending Arm Chair guy's thoughts... If a Samsung can Guarantee its TVs, the road contractors must guarantee the quality of their work. If it fails within the guaranteed time, they need to redo without being paid... Manas

Subhiksha: A perfect "go bust"

(Having observed the operational dynamics of Subhiksha, 2 years back, it had struck me that this was not a sustainable mode of working. Over the next 2 years that seed has actually taken long roots. In fact many of the retail chanels in India are not on sustainable models and are trying to over spend each other. This post, happened after 7/8 days of the Retail Realism one and bear my thoughts and ideas substantially if not fully)
Read article at http://www.livemint.com/2008/09/05001546/Subhiksha-not-paying-some-bill.html
In continuation to an article that appeared in Mint some time back.. "bringing back retail realism" (http://www.livemint.com/2008/08/27002851/Bringing-back-retail-realism.html) , I had listed out a number of points on just how high and how much the retail exuberance is irrational. Subhiksha to me is the best and the biggest example of "how to get retail management wrong". To list down the bullet points on this
1. Unmindful Expansion: Subhiksha took a lot of pride on matters of number of stores opened per day/per week/per month...
2. ... without Consolidation: Very few stores would have been profitable in terms of cash flows
3. Flouting all possible rules in Retail management.
4. The staffing and the personnel quality was pathetic but the pay was very good.
5. The terms of business were not always ethical or right minded.
6. Whither Inventory management?
7. Footfalls, turnaround and turnover being the guru mantra: Subhiksha never understood its customers
8. The only USP was discounts... hardly a sustainable competitive edge!
9. Your vendors only have a limited leash...expecting infinite credit cycles to make up for your ROIs is hardly good vendor management
10. Downstream supply chain was not integrated. Bulk buying is not a source of advantage.
11. Diffused focus: Subhiksha sold fresh vegetables, medicines, groceriezs, mobile phones, accessories and more.. where was the focus? How robust was the business model and the manpower to handle such diversity?
Now i hear CDIT format stores under the Subhiksha aegis... When will you learn Mr. Subramanian? Bottomline: No one "buys out" a sick horse. At this rate... Mr Subrmanian.. you would go bust!

Realty Sector, Investments and a possible growth story

(This post deals with a view about realty sector players in the Indian Market,especially DLF. Read full details at ... http://www.livemint.com/2008/09/05003413/DLF-yet-to-start-work-on-Mumba.html)

Hi Madhurima

No one contests the financial might and lobbying abilities of the collossus, DLF.However in the regime of increasing interest rates and plataeuing consumer demand, (read recessionary symptoms/ slowdown), i am not surprised that DLF is going slow.

1. As of now, it seems that DLF has invested more than it is comfortable with in a horizon which is uncertain. Consumer demand is not exactly the shade of pink it used to be.

2. While partnerships with other real estate cos, would help DLF tide over the credit/cash crunch, yet the cash flows from exiting projects would not be as promising.

3. There would be some inventory (ready to move in, unsold properties) which DLF would be stuck with.

4. Hence the delays and slow execution...

5. Compare it with players such as Indiabulls etc, who donot have significant inventory at hand. Hence they can continue to invest, from their P&L standpoint.

6.One thing that really beats me is most of the projects that are being advertised, are targetted to the Medium High level consumer. We havent heard of mass housing schemes. Thats where most of the real estate companies are missing the trick.

7. Mass housing solutions (i remember Brazil having done one of these projects successfully) would be key to spurring growth in this sector in the years to come.

8. Besides, the development at the tech parks and SEZs that has happened has been much unplanned and infrastructurally bottled up. One just needs to see the Cybergreens/Gurgaon and Hyderabad at peak hours to understand how badly the projects were concieved.

9. Bottomline... Cos like DLF will have giant successes and those irritating nags that will be a cash drain. DLF probably needs to look at more economical solutions catering to wider audience solutions in "building India".

Thanks

Of Infrsatructure and Capital Statements

( .. furthering the course of discussion on the pathetic quality of roads in India, this was a post that i had written in reply to Raju Narisetti's (editor in Chief, Mint) editorial piece on pathetic road infrastructure in India. Click http://blogs.livemint.com/blogs/romanticrealist/archive/2008/09/01/killer-roads-in-india-and-rethinking-the-death-penalty.aspx?CommentPosted=true#commentmessage for the story)

Hi Raju

Off all things, i cant imagine why you would have to toil in some obscure hill way, a Highway 58 or something. Did you miss the roads outside your home/office/club/mall/market etc? If my memory does me fair justise, the utility of tax payers money diminishes by exponential degrees as you move out of Delhi/or the state capitals.And i am still talking Delhi! We dont have a concept of time value of Money in India else the amount that we lost in the traffic jams and on roads would be incomprehensible. It takes only one good monsoon to show how poorly off we are in the quality of road infrastructure. As far as your China comparison is concerned, the common perception of India's GDP growth is that we loose 2% growth opportunity because of infrastructural shortages and shortcomings (whether be road, electricity, water, or any other). So when India was scorching at 9% GDP growth, the common perception was we could actually do a 11% and we were loosing 2% to these bottlenecks. I wonder if China works on discounting their infrastructure. Responsibilibity and accountability go hand in hand: Thats as far as i understand is a universal principle. Universal, right till about it steps to the Indian Policy makers. This may sound crazy and indeed as a action point radical , but who audits the government. Are there any scorecards for the governments and policy makers. Inside the parliament, its just as good as a thief judging the theivery of another. Why cant we have a group of business icons/media people/environment specialists/economists/ social activists, take a yearly account of the policies and the governments? A public death penalty is not as much the answer as an answerable system is. In a mature world, i would vote for rational assessments instead of radical penalties.

Thanks

Regards

Bringing Back Retail Realism

(An addition/comment to a report on Retail and the over optimism around it which was published in Mint on 27th August 2008)
http://www.livemint.com/2008/08/27002851/Bringing-back-retail-realism.html ... for the full post

Having dealt with the large retail houses in course of doing business, i was fairly confident that the exuberrance@retail was shortlived and was over stretched. Come to think of it from a business perspective
1. There were lot of instances of delayed payments by these chains ... leading to order cancellations from the vendors.
2. There was always a working capital crunch and huge credit cycles which were never resolved. 3. These chains had punted a fair amount on the vendors abilities to extend credit and run promotions
4. Competition never ran by any rules of retail management.
5. Consequently there were 3 or 4 players in the same catchment trying to woo consumers
6. Consumers were sploit for choices
7. Most of the shopping that happened was price discount based instead of value based
8. The stores competed on promotions and price offs rather than understanding the consumer better
9. By arm twisting the local vendors into greater margin sharing, these stores stocked up goods which were not the quality the consumers expected from the stores.
10. Quality thus became a concern from these stores. (No one believes jeans @ Rs.199 stories from these stores on quality)
11. The assortment of goods carried, the inventories and the personnel required to run the chains involves huge outflows which the profits dont make good.
12. From the consumer psyche, window shopping is all that he does in these stores. The real purchase happen at 50% and more "off" sales.

Thus in trying to be everything to everybody many of these stores loose on consumers. So then whats working?

1. Would applaud the Nokia, Bose, Sony stores which focus on a narrow merchandise but good depths
2. The Walmarts and the Tesco's of the world dont only do retail management. They have huge vendor/supply management fundamentals. Its like Frito Lays paying farmers to cultivate the Potato for the Lay's Chips.
At this level, of price discounting, promotion and bargain hunting, the story is doomsday for these stores.