The urban rural divide and electoral anti incumbency.

Historically,the anti incumbency factor has delivered some telling blows to governments, upsetting poll surveys, analysts and conventional thinking. The best example of this is perhaps the fall of BJP led NDA in 2004 general elections. That was when the GDP Growth was starting to get at 8% levels, the economy was resurgent and "India Shinning" was the phrase to sum up India. 2009 is markedly different.The GDP growth has fallen to 5.3% in October - December quarter of 2008 from the 8.9% levels in the same period in 2007. Agricultural GDP is at2.2% growth (low from 6.9% YOY), Manufacturting had a sub zero GDP growth rate. Economies around the world are faltering, there is a global meltdown of the banking systems and governments around the world are trying their best to rekindle economic growth. How is all this going to affect the incumbency of Congress and its UPA alliance?

On one side, the manufacturing slump means fewer jobs for migrants from rural states to once booming cities, job growth is slowing and many small businesses and hawkers are suffering. Infrastructure addition has not been as per the promises made by the government, their are real time "terror" issues.es sector, which relies heavily on foriegn markets have gone from bad to worse in the current economic meltdown.

But if the indicators are to be factored in, Rural India is doing well. Sample this:
1. 15 million new cellphone connections were sold in january 2009, up from 10 million in December and all this growth is rural based.
2. Hero Honda's sales of motorcycles which focus on rural areasrose 24% in February.
3. FMCG sector has been doing better than average business in the small towns and rural areas.
4. Agriculture has been witnessing bumper crops and high prices, a boon for the agri economy.
5. Rural wages are high, assisted by the Rural Employment Generation Scheme. Several states have revised minimum wages upward benefitting workers.
6. For the millions working in government organizations, the 6th Pay commission has increased salaries and they are doing well sitting on arrears paid.
7. A good monsoon has bouyed up the agri sector and though rainfull is painfully deficient in some states leading to farmer suicides, the overall mood is optimistic.

All factors put together, Rural India seesm to be doing better and with 70% of the population being rural, the ruling coalition has reasons to believe that it has done reasonable well in terms of building a platform to ask for a re-election. Thus the Congress led UPA is not badly placed in terms of riding against anti incumbency with the rural surge.