Newspaper Posts

Dictator Democracy

2009-10-18T05:23:00.000-07:00

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Dictator-democracy/articleshow/5120815.cms
An article Re-print of Jug Suraiya's Dictator Democracy on the ToI. While the treatment of the subject is sarcastic and humorous, it asks a very sensitive question: Whether government decrees and force feed democrcay like the one in Maharashtra is in true spirit of democracy.

Can democracy be a democracy and a dictatorship, both at the same time? Yes, it can, if it's Indian democracy. The Maharashtra government decreed that when the state went to assembly polls, Mumbai would forcibly be shut down shops, restaurants, schools, offices, factories, all closed so that people, with nothing else to be distracted by or to do, would be forced to vote.

The reason for this drastic measure to force-feed democracy or at least elections to Mumbaikars is that the otherwise 'can do' city is notoriously 'can't do' or 'won't do' when it comes to voting. This was evident in the last Lok Sabha polls in which the voter turnout was just over 40 per cent. The fact that the polls coincided with a long weekend which lured many Mumbaikars to out-of-town holidays was deemed to be largely responsible for the poor showing. However, sarkari concern was voiced over the seeming political apathy of a city which had just suffered a murderous terrorist attack and should have been all gung-ho about manning the barricades of democracy as represented by the ballot box, instead of swanning off on holiday.

To preclude the possibility of the assembly elections also proving a non-event in terms of turnout, the authorities reportedly issued orders that anyone failing to comply with the shutdown diktat was liable to face arrest under Section 135-B of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. To ensure compliance with this closed-door policy, special squads patrolled the city to make sure that no one was subverting democracy by trying to sneak into a school, or an office, or a factory, or a shop, or a restaurant. Go to vote. Or you might find yourself in jail: that was the message, willy-nilly, that officialdom sent out not just to Mumbaikars but to all of us who are citizens of this democracy.

Mumbai's case is symptomatic of a fundamental problem of our democracy. Democracy is supposed to be about empowering people, the common citizens, and helping them to get on with their daily lives as best they can (by going to schools, offices, factories, etc). But our sarkar seems convinced that democracy is only about empowering itself, at the expense of the people and their day-to-day needs.

India's political class and the successive governments that it forms, and which often comprise the strangest of bedfellows sees democracy only in terms of elections. It doesn't really matter which party comes into power, for in the end as a number of blatantly opportunistic alliances and coalitions have shown they are all fundamentally the same: cynical exploiters of the people.

Or at least that's the message that all our political parties have over the years been communicating, consciously or otherwise, to an increasingly sceptical electorate. The way our political parties, all our political parties of all shades and stripes, appear to see it is that the function of our democracy is only to hold periodic elections in which voters will, forcibly if necessary, vote one or other, or several, of these parties into power. Having fulfilled that basic duty (of having voted a politician into power) the voter can go jump. The voter's and the politician's democratic responsibility is over. Elections are the end all and be all of our democracy. And never mind what happens in between, never mind the persistent hardships and despair that citizens continue to face in their daily lives.

This is the real meaning of the Mumbai bandh on polling day: in our democracy the voter has no right of education, employment, earning a livelihood, whatever other than the right to vote. Indeed, as the Mumbai authorities would have it, the voter's right to vote is not just a right but an enforceable obligation. In other words, you've got to vote, whether you like it or not, whether you feel it's going to better your daily life in any way or not.

Jai ho to the democratic dictatorship of India that is Bharat.

Noble Cause or Noble Duplicity

2009-10-11T19:40:00.000-07:00

http://www.livemint.com/2009/10/11213737/A-prize-to-bind-nuclear-India.html: a Mint article on Obama, the geo-politics of disarmament and winning the Noble prize.

Prizes are usually given after the fact: Herta Mueller and Venkatraman Ramakrishnan first write about Romania or research ribosomes—they later get Nobels for their work. Then, there’s the strange occasion where a prize is awarded before the fact: US President Barack Obama wins the Nobel Peace Prize for just dreaming to rid the world of nuclear weapons. If that dream comes anywhere close to becoming fact, India will find itself with nothing to celebrate.

On the same day that Obama was awarded the Nobel, he sent a letter to the US Congress or “certification” under the US-India civilian nuclear deal. This certified that the US would work to “further restrict the transfers of equipment and technology related to the enrichment of uranium and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel”.

There’s no cause and effect here as yet: US law requires this general certification. But what if there’s cause and effect in the future?

The Nobel is sure to give Obama affirmation about his ideas for a nuclear weapons-free world. The trouble is that he is unlikely to be able to get countries such as Iran and North Korea to back off from the path they’ve chosen. He is also unlikely to be able to get Russia and China to disarm before the US takes such steps. That leaves players such as India that are considered easy to arm-twist in this quest.

It’s no secret that the White House has pressured India in the last few months on this issue. Post-Nobel, there’s the danger this pressure will increase.

Part of this centres on the US Democratic Party’s perception of India as being “obstructionist”. While they kowtow to China, progressives refuse to acknowledge, unlike—and perhaps even in reaction to—Bush, the exception the civilian nuclear deal seeks to give India.

The other part centres on what US journalist Walter Lippmann observed in 1943 about the disarmament movement—that it had been “tragically successful in disarming the (very) nations that believed in disarmament”. India, as its no-first-use principle shows, shudders at the thought of deploying such weapons. Others don’t share that apprehension. Yet, India’s responsible behaviour makes it the low-hanging fruit the disarmament ayatollahs can pick on. The true rogue states are instead appeased.

India must resist these pressures and double standards. This means not only forceful diplomacy, but—in light of the US-India talks that recently commenced in Vienna over reprocessing nuclear fuel and that further facilitate commercial negotiations—also making sure it doesn’t rely too much on the US for materials or diplomatic favours.

Austerity Raj: Lessons from travelling Cattle Class

2009-09-22T19:46:00.001-07:00

Stories about Sonia Gandhi and the Congress's austerity drive are all around and all over. Thanks to Tharoor's generous tweeting, the mesaure got more meia coverage than it deserved. Here's Jug Suraiya's sattirical take on the situation. Does it set and example, is as ineffective or doess it genuinely make a difference.

Sarojini Naidu's remark that it cost the Indian taxpayer a lot to keep the Mahatma in the poverty he was accustomed to has gained relevance again, more than 60 years after it was originally made. Sarojini was referring to Gandhiji's habit of travelling by III class on trains, with the result that, for security reasons, an entire coach had to be reserved for him alone. Like history, austerity repeats itself. And the Congress-led UPA government has energetically been embracing conspicuous austerity to win kudos and influence the electorate.

Ostentatious austerity, or spendthrift thrift, has become politically correct in view of the deficit monsoon which is likely to adversely impact the rural economy and act as a brake on India's growth story, already affected by the global slowdown. Taking the cue from Sonia Gandhi, Congresswallas and their allies have been scurrying to show solidarity with what might be called the alms janta by flying economy class on airlines. As 'airdashing' to sundry places the farther off the better is the preferred pastime of our netas, the economy-package rule is likely to cramp their style, amongst other things.But what price such cut-price netas? Just how effective will this austerity raj prove in wooing the once and future voter? Does the average voter - whoever she may be actually want bargain-basement, cheaper-by-the-dozen desh ka netas? Or is this mythical average voter more likely to be impressed by larger-than-life, literally high-flying and big-spending brand leaders, be they political fat cats, Bollywood superstars, or cricket crorepatis?

The misapprehension that a lot of armchair ascetics make is that austerity is a virtue in the eyes of the poor; it isn't. Austerity is a virtue only in the eyes of the affluent (people who observe religious fasts or go on diets to lose the excess weight their wealth has burdened them with). For the poor, austerity is an ever-present evil, an inescapable nemesis; it's the gnawing pain of an empty belly, the skeletal spectre of despair.

The poor don't want to see people whom they know to be rich and powerful as their netas must be, or why are they netas in the first place? to enact austerity; the poor recognise this for the sanctimonious hypocrisy that it is. (Fly economy and how many of the poor can afford to fly at all, forget economy? and continue to live in a Lutyens' bungalow which costs over Rs 150 crore, which would provide a school and a hospital each for some 150 villages.)

Marie Antoinette almost got it right: if the poor can't eat bread, they can eat vicarious cake through others. Mayawati is one of the few Indian politicians who seems to have understood this. Behenji long ago realised that leave alone cake, even enabling the poor to eat bread is a task beyond her capabilities (or her inclinations, or both) as a political leader. So she did the next best thing. She enabled the poor to watch her eat birthday cake, and wear diamonds in her hair, and put up hundreds of crores worth of statues to herself.

Mayawati's political strategy is the mirror image of conspicuous austerity; it is proxy prodigality, second-hand cake. True, this strategy doesn't seem to have worked any too well, going by the results of the last polls.

But it's early days yet. Sooner rather than later, the Indian voter poor or otherwise will see through the sham of conspicuous austerity just as she sees through Behenji's conspicuous consumption. In that they both end up beggaring us, they're both the same: a pain in the austerity.

As an Indian subject to vagaries of "being Indian and staying in India", i wont care less if our ministers travel cattle class or not. What makes a difference is, how much effort and what results do they bring to this country. Austerity is good, planning is better, excution is best.

Social development: Terrorisms' antidote!

2009-09-15T10:07:00.000-07:00

Pakistan had declared Osama bin Laden dead. However, to mark 9/11, Osama and a 11 minute video released by As-Sahab media production have now surfaced putting the Pkaistan claim to shame. The Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden described President Barack Obama as "powerless" to stop the war in Afghanistan, and Americans' inability to grasp why the 9/11 attacks occurred has "cost you a lot without any result whatsoever". This is not about Osama or his alive or dead status. It is also not about the threat ,which for the first time appears rather muted. There is a deeper thought in the statement.. a thought that is yet to be captured by America and its allies.

Edward Girardet, a world renowned journalist has commented in his new book that the war in Afghanistan can not be won by a military victory. Girardet says "My thesis is that no one can win a war in Afghanistan. You can win peace with development." Whether it is the LTTE in Sri Lanka or Troubled Kashmir or the pirates from Somalia, or the home grown Naxalite movement, Terrorism is a social issue stoked by political and monetary intent. "It's all about outside interest. Whether it is Pakistan, US, India, Russia or Iran, everyone is here for their interest. The parallels are numerous."

Girardet points out to the fact that the old mistakes being repeated over and over again! Quoting Girardet:

"The Mujahideen never fought fixed battles. The same thing is happening now. There's a problem with a conventional army trying to fight a guerrilla war. So when i hear the ISAF claiming that they have cleared an area of Taliban, it reminds me of the days when the Russians would make similar claim about the Mujahideen. And the truth is that you don't have the population on your side. Also, the Americans put a lot of money into aid but it was not monitored. All these things are happening again."

"Experienced people have been telling the international powers here to 'go slow, don't throw money at them, let Afghans consult Afghans, and get the community involved', but none of the big donors here have any patience. So it's not going to work. The Afghans are not dumb. They know exactly what's going on. And the most shocking thing is that most of the people in the higher and middle positions have no idea what this country is all about. My thesis is that no one can win a war in Afghanistan. You can win peace with development. "

If all the monies that were blown up in buying weapons, sending armies, deputing militias and cost of operations were simply put to a better use in developing these nations, the efforts would have built a public consensus on development and growth. That by itself would have weakened the terror idealogies. That would have won the war against terror!The best example of this was the elimination of Taliban from Swat valley because of loss of their idealogical base due to attrocities they committed in the area.

Instead millions of "war" dollars have been spent, usually not yielding any results decades after the first bullet was shot, the first man killed. The governments and international agencies would just had to control the "outside interference" and peace would have taken care of itself.

At the current juncture, Girardet is of the view that a sudden withdrawl of UN/US troops out of Afghanistan would create chaos in the country. He advocates for a well trained and well paid army and internal security force in Afghanistan. Girardet stresses the need to talk to Taliban, to the provinces, to the local communities and leaders and chalk out a plan of development. The only way out of the Afghan war is to work with the people of the country.

The same rule applies across all nations, people and communities in the world. "Give a man a reason to live and he will not resort to any terros tactics ever"

Reference posts:

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/taliban-loosing-its-social-and.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/is-terror-political-problem.html

Delhi's headed for a traffic grid-lock!

2009-09-03T04:33:00.000-07:00

Delhi’s arterial roads are breaching capacities before schedule. The City’s traffic has mostly grown to a point where new flyovers no longer help in clearing the congestion. Transport experts say Delhi is well on its way to becoming the next Bangkok, notorious around the world or nightmarish traffic jams. There are several ominous indicators across the city of intersections and flyovers breaching their designed carrying capacity a lot earlier than expected.

According to a 2008 RITES study on vehicular and traffic information around Delhi:

Since 1972, traffic has increased by a whopping 21 times while road space has risen just 3.7 times.
44% of stretches are carrying more vehicles than they were designed for, 19% more are on the verge of exceeding capacity.
Peak hour speed is 22kmph and the off peak speed is 26kmph.
Ring-road which was designed for 75000 vehicles a day, has 160,000 vehicles and will hit the 400000 mark by 2011.

The reason behind the traffic mayhem is simple. The Capital’s vehicular population has simply exploded in the past decade. As per the economic survey, Delhi registered 564 private vehicles a day which has jumped to 1054 personal vehicles per day in 2006-07, an almost two fold increase and a CAGR of 6.42%. Private vehicles constitute 94% of the total vehicular strength. Delhi at present has 6 million vehicles, which is 10% of the country’s vehicular population. If the trend continues, it will have 250 lakh vehicles in the next 20 years. Much before that, the city will have ground to a complete halt.

Flyovers , Grade separators and signal free intersections are just a short and medium term solution for the traffic problems.

One would probably need to reduce the load on roads and the Delhi Metro is doing quite a bit of that.
Road widening is another critical point for reducing bottlenecks. This would require work in terms of removing permanent/semi permanent unauthorized buildings. It would also need to work at a “day to day” traffic discipline, specially with the Blue-line busses and large vehicles, which have shown scarce respect for traffic and traffic sense.
One would also need to remove the slow moving vehicles from the road such as rickshaws, hand carts and in some cases auto rickshaws and busses as well etc.
Civilian movement on roads would have to be prosecuted and which will need airways and foot over bridges, underpasses to handle foot traffic.
The Singapore traffic model would also be a good one to follow with restricted entries to classes of vehicles on select roads. This would be marked by higher taxes and different colour numbering boards.
SEZs, Office campuses and Residential complexes would have to be moved out of the city. This will require a comprehensive long term urban planning.
Goods movement would have to restricted and non peak hours designated for goods movement.
Parking lots for busses and other large vehicles need to be designated
Finally, an awareness campaign targeted to the commuter and a strict and corruption free enforcement is needed.

Delhi Commonwealth Games: A super fiasco in making (Part IV)

2009-09-01T05:30:00.000-07:00

Failing Revenue Generation Claims

Projected financial bottomlines of the games have already been revised thrice even before the revenues are yet to trickle in. The financial management skills of the organizing committee have come under the scanner of CAG.

As per the bid documents of December 2003, the projected revenue was estimated to be Rs.840 crore and the operating expenditure was projected at Rs.635 crore resulting in savings of Rs.205 crore. In August 2007, the organizing committee increased its income by Rs.60 crore while it hiked its expenditure by Rs.132 crore, thus reducing savings to Rs.133 crores.

A Year later, surprisingly, the committee again revised its projected accounts where estimated surplus cash to zero – no profit, no loss with the total revenue reaching Rs.1780 crore and total expenditure also showing Rs.1780 crore. Suresh Kalmadi, President of the Indian Olympic Association has failed to convince auditors on the avenues of revenue generation.CAG now has stressed on the need for greater and more effective monitoring of the actual use of funds given the multiplicity of agencies involved in executing the project.

Delhi Commonwealth Games: A super fiasco in making (Part III)

2009-08-31T20:21:00.001-07:00

Government flouted the 7 year international Norms

There was hardly any method in the way the Games were approached by the planners, says CAG. The organizers were supposed to follow the seven-year project cycle as practiced internationally — two years for planning and approvals, four years for execution, construction and development, and the last year for test events and trial runs.After the event was awarded to New Delhi in 2003, the government instead adopted a four-phase approach. In the first phase, the entire plan for the Games was to be laid out. Two years were allocated for this purpose (January 2004 to May 2006). The second phase was for creation of infrastructure, between May 2006 and May 2008. The delivery of the completed projects was to be made between May 2008 to December 2010.CAG observed that there was no evidence of the four phase approach being translated into action from 2004 to 2006 (phase one), nor during a major part of phase two. In fact, in its response to CAG observations, the organizing committee said that till the appointment of technical and HR consultants in 2006, it had little or no experience in organizing an event of this magnitude.

Lack of governance and mismanagement is not new to India and Indians. As a nation, if India cuts a sorry face in CWG in October 2010, it will dampen the global perception of India and Indians. But, it will also probably awaken the system and authorities and bring in greater accountability and responsibility into the system. If the CWG fiasco manages to achieve a shake-up of that order, even that will be a positive outcome as far as India is concerned.

Delhi Commonwealth Games: A super fiasco in making (Part II)

2009-08-30T02:39:00.000-07:00

The sorry state of infra-structure under-preparedness for CWG Delhi 2010

Games Campuses off the schedule

The games campuses that face “high risk” of non completion include Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Aquatic Complex for the swimming event which according to the plan should have been 93% complete by June 2009. Only 40% of the work has been finished so far. Interestingly, even completion targets for the SPM aquatic complex have been reset on documents from 93% to 40% to make the dismal progress so far look good.

Training venue for athletics, swimming, weightlifting and wrestling at the games village is also lagging behind with over 40% of the work yet to be completed. Other key projects lagging behind include the Shivaji Stadium for Hockey, The Ludlow Castle hall for wrestling, The Jamia Milia Islamia university which is the venue for rugby and table tennis and Talkatora Stadium, the boxing venue. All these venues have a work shortfall up to to 50%.

The lack of concern on part of the government and organizers in meeting deadlines reflect in the way planning has been done. While the organizing committee submitted its budget for the Games in November 2005, this was approved by the Centre only in April 2007 a full one-and-a-half year later.The organization plan was finalized in August 2007, project and risk management experts appointed in March 2008 and the Games masterplan finalized in November 2008 for seeking the approval of the Commonwealth Games Federation.As per the international guidelines, all CWG projects were to be completed by May 2009 and the last year should have been kept for trial runs. Au Contraire, Delhi has started work on most of these projects around the same time leaving doubts on completion times and leaving no time absolutely for trial runs!

The all too familiar finger pointing is on as CPWD, the project executing agency, has blamed the organizing committee and its consultants for delaying the projects by constantly revising and re-revising designs for every venue. This is far from the earnest search for real answers and efforts to get things right!

Delhi Commonwealth Games: A super fiasco in making (Part I)

2009-08-28T00:38:00.001-07:00

China demonstrated its technological and organizational prowess by the stunning spectacle that Beijing Olympics’2008. It was the testimony of China coming to age, a final seal of global approval to China. India has a similar opportunity staging the Common wealth Games in 2010, 12 months now on. However, from the looks of it, the Indian effort will probably be borne out in ignominy, embarrassment and chagrin on the world stage. CAG reported large scale under-preparedness and financial mismanagement in the CWG projects.

Earlier coverages in this blog:

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/delhis-commonwealth-tamasha.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/delhi-running-out-of-time-on.html

Key Games projects badly delayed: CAG
Projects including the main stadium design, games venues, infrastructure for conducting the sports and major city upgrade plans are running so much behind schedule that there’s a real threat of India’s showpiece games turning into a non event. In at least 13 of the 19 sporting venues, the work shortfall is between 25% to 50%. 9 out of 16 major ongoing city infrastructure projects are at high risk of failing deadline with work shortfall of 55% to 97%. All 16 running late infrastructure projects are anyways running super late.This means all these projects would either miss the deadlines or compromise on quality in haste to finish on time.

6 projects have been shelved completely given the helplessness in terms of time schedules and hopelessness in the situation delinking them from the games. CAG says the first 3 projecst were critical to the Games and would impact traffic management during the event.

1. Shastri Park tunnel corridor connecting east Delhi to north and northeast

2 Elevated east-west corridor from east Delhi to CP

3 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg flyover linking IG stadium

4 Masoodpur corridor upgrade & Mahipalpur tunnel

5 SP Mukherjee Marg corridor for easing Old Delhi railway station traffic

6 Signal-free right turn at JB Tito Marg-Siri Fort Road

Among the infrastructure projects shelved due to horrible delays, CAG says the east-west corridor, BSZ Marg flyover and the Shastri Park tunnel were critical for the Games on account of their location and that the decision to delink them would have adverse traffic management implications.

Metro constructions in Delhi have already shown cracks (literally and figuratively under the haste of meeting CWG deadlines).

Crisis @ BJP (From Bad to worse): The expulsion of Jaswant Singh

2009-08-25T21:44:00.000-07:00

To my mind, BJP could have done without this Jaswant Singh episode. At a time, when the party is not able to come to grips with its identity in shaping India and RSS still tugs at the umbilical cord of ideology, the expulsion of Jaswant Singh who has been a BJP stalwart could be the beginning of the end of BJP. The reason of expulsion is cited as criticism of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, a BJP icon and praise of Jinnah which supposedly has irked the Sanghis and BJP leaders. Jaswant Singh had earlier criticized L K Advani for the poll debacle. The top brass in BJP are hoping that this action would serve as a warning to the deviators from the RSS-BJP ideological line.
Jaswant Singh’s book, Jinnah: India-Partition-Independence, upset the Sangh and the BJP not for its attempt to give the founder of Pakistan a flattering makeover, but for showing Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel in a poor light in the process. Allegedly, Jaswant Singh has blamed Patel for allowing the partition, backing the two nation theory and adopting a hard stand that “alienated” muslims. This is the second time someone in BJP has suffered on account of Jinnah. L K Advani lost his job as the party chief in 2005 for praising Jinnah while on a tour of Pakistan.

If the BJP was hoping to project itself as a democratic, moderate party which could accommodate differing points of view, this expulsion puts paid to all that.In an earlier post sometime back , I had written about how BJP and CPIM need to look beyond the hardline ideologies in order to stay relevant in changing times. This action goes to prove that BJP is still heavily biased by the RSS. After its electoral defeat, BJP simply is not able to get its act together. With squabbles among its leadership, BJP seems to have forgotten its duty to the country: that of holding a responsible chair of opposition. Sticking to Hindutva hardline could be a ploy with diminishing returns in the long term for the saffron party. For once it has to emerge from its Saffron mould and probably go green.

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/is-it-time-for-bjp-and-left-to-rift.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-i-lack-of-coherent.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-ii-lack-of-electoral.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-iii-lack-of.html

The virtues of a good drought!

2009-08-25T07:48:00.000-07:00

It is now official. We are in the middle of the worst drought since independence.Ten states have declared 246 districts as drought hit. This is about 47% of the total districts in the country.Rice production is also expected to go down by 10 million tones. However India does have enough food reserves to meet any shortfall for the next 13 months. The fall in rice production works out to as much as 70% of what the country holds as buffer or emergency stock. Foodgrain demand for 2008-09 has been estimated at 219.01 million tones as against 233.88 million tonnes produced. India currently needs 7.2 million tones of Rice as buffer and has about 14.1 million tones. The current buffer for wheat is 7 million tones while the country has 15 million tones. This will help the country avoid the need to import. Congress party spokesman Janardhan Reddy has issued an advisory to the government to tackle the most important fall out of a drought season: the rise in food prices. Already, Congress has drafted a “drought-code” for its members, whereby Congress MPs, legislators and salaried officeholders will contribute 20% of their basic salary to state and central exchequer in a symbolic gesture of solidarity with those battling drought and price rise.

To a certain extent, the concerns about its impact on growth are valid but less so compared to the previous droughts: partly because agriculture accounts for much less of national income now than it did during previous droughts and partly because other sectors of the economy are less dependent on agriculture than they were earlier. The concerns are valid but are not as important for growth as they are for livelihood and food security, since at least half of India’s population still depends on agriculture for its livelihood and that is not much different from previous spells of drought.

This drought is a grim reminder of the fact that not all of boom in agriculture was driven by government policy. It is an altogether different matter that the rain gods hardly ever get credit for good monsoons. However, droughts have also presented the unique opportunity to governances in their time to innovate social solutions. Earlier droughts have now become landmark events for public policy depending on a government’s ability to convert challenges into opportunities.

The first major drought after independence was in the mid-1960s, with severe consequences for food security. But the government of the day was successful in converting the challenge into a golden opportunity. The opportunity was the green revolution and by the end of the next decade we were more or less self-sufficient in food. It was also successful in increasing irrigation on a much bigger scale than in the previous decades.

The second major public policy lesson was also a response to droughts. The much-appreciated National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) is a successor of such a policy initiative. It was the Maharashtra Employment Guarantee Scheme which was started initially as a drought relief programme that formed the basis of a unique experiment in the world to provide guaranteed employment to the rural poor.

The importance of public employment programmes was also appreciated in the 1987-88 drought, which incidentally also saw a significant reduction in rural poverty for the first time. This was ably supported by the public policy of keeping cereal prices low and providing food security to the poor.

The 2002-03 drought was again severe and manifested itself in large-scale farmer suicides, but it also exposed the limitations of credit delivery in rural areas. The rapid expansion of credit in rural areas subsequently has not been enough to correct the serious imbalances on that front but it was successful in emphasising the magnitude of the problem. But more than that, it did provide the background for emphasising the importance of public employment programmes. The result is NREGA.

So what kind of opportunity does this drought throw up? In the long run, this drought has highlighted the vulnerabilities of Indian agriculture to the seasonal monsoons, despite claims of record production in the last four years. There cannot be a better time to usher a second green revolution and create a sustainable food security environment. It is high time to take up the long-term challenge of investing in agriculture and particularly on creating long-term sustainable irrigation systems. These may not be large-scale irrigation systems alone but even small water harvesting and conservation works undertaken as part of NREGA. But, in the short run, it is the best time to strengthen NREGA and expand its scope to individual entitlement from the existing household entitlement.

This drought is also a golden opportunity to convert this challenge into a successful public policy initiative. This opportunity is the enactment of the Right to Food Act. There cannot be a better time to do this. There is already a political consensus. This is also the time when the government stocks are full of foodgrain and it is economically insulated because of high growth achieved in the previous four years. This government has the option of being remembered for having faced the worst drought since independence or being remembered for successfully fighting it by enacting the Right to Food Act.
Ref: http://www.livemint.com/2009/08/18234120/It8217s-time-for-a-New-Deal.html

Lessons from Swine Flu: Rebuilding State capacity and clamoring for administrative reforms.

2009-08-18T09:42:00.000-07:00

Essential public services are in disarray. This is not a problem that the upper classes bothered about till now

Profiling Niranjan Rajadhyaksha commentary on the sorry state of Indian administration and its failings.

http://www.livemint.com/2009/08/11210747/Lessons-from-swine-flu.html

The swine flu scare has forced people like us to face the bitter truth: India’s public health system is an unholy mess.

The first swine flu infections have mostly been among people who are better off than the average Indian. Testing and treatment have been restricted to select public hospitals and institutes. So people who have had no reason to enter a public hospital in many years have suddenly been forced to do so. This has led to moments of epiphany.

This is a symptom of a larger problem. Essential public services are in disarray. This is not a problem that the middle and upper classes have been bothered about till now.

This column has previously cited the work of the highly original economist Albert O. Hirschman. He has argued that people respond to organizational decline in two ways: voice and exit. Voice involves attempts to engage the system and change it. Exit means opting out. There are no prizes for guessing what path the Indian elite that lives in gated communities, sends its children to private schools, never takes a bus to work and visits only swank hospitals has chosen: voice or exit?

The deterioration in governance is a problem that is rarely given its due. Bimal Jalan has been one of the few public policy experts writing and speaking about India’s governance crisis. In his book The Future of India, Jalan has cited fears expressed by reputed civil servant S. Bhoothalingam that the bureaucracy had become ossified as early as 1961, a mere 14 years after Independence. Matters have gotten worse since then.

Why does this matter? The lack of state capacity matters for issues that are more long-term than the current swine flu panic. It means that ministries and government departments are chronically unable to spend the money allocated to them in the annual budget. It means that fiscal stimulus packages focus on higher revenue expenditure rather than building new public works. It means that inefficient police and judicial systems raise the costs of doing business.

In short, the lack of state capacity is a drag on long-term economic growth.

One short-term test case of state capacity could soon be evident. India is edging close to its first drought in five years. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did well to make clear on Saturday that the big policy goal in case the monsoon does not revive is to ensure “no citizen will go hungry”. But millions who are most likely to go hungry in times of drought also happen to live in districts that have poor connectivity and poor governance. Reaching food to them will be a challenge for the food security system.

The poor live with a dysfunctional government system every day: schools where teachers rather than students play truant, public hospitals and health centres without basic equipment and local officials who do not care.

The 1 August issue of the Economic and Political Weekly has a chilling account of what happened at Khairlanji, a village in Maharashtra where a Dalit family was killed by a mob of so-called higher castes in September 2006. The official response was callous. What is particularly troubling is that “a majority of the police (and) medical officers across ranks handling the case were Dalits. But they showed a negligent attitude towards their official duties...”
Swine flu fears, the long shadow of drought and the killing of a Dalit family: each story points to the same underlying problem. The Indian state is failing in its basic duties to protect citizens, provide justice and help the poorest.

There are two lessons here. One, a lot of the debate on government programmes tends to focus on how much money is being thrown at a particular problem. Corruption is a constant. But equally important is the incapacity to use taxpayer money well and deliver basic services.
Two, a system that cannot do its basic job well enough still wants to stretch itself and do stuff that the private sector is quite capable of doing, especially running enterprises that in the case of the public sector are usually loss-making.

Jalan has this to say in The Future of India: “The burden of weak administration naturally falls mainly on the poor because of the indifference of government staff to them… The insensitivity of the administrative system to the needs of the poor, even to prevent starvation, has been confirmed by first-hand surveys and reports by journalists and non-governmental organizations.”

It has often been said that the Indian state does too little in some areas and too much in others. That is the whole point of economic reforms: A free economy can boost growth and thus provide the government with tax revenues to spend on what should be its key functions.
Administrative reforms and rebuilding of state capacity have to be important parts of this transition.

India’s own Balochistan

2009-08-07T02:25:00.000-07:00

Pakistan has implicated India and the Karzai government in Afghanistan to be instigating civil unrest in Pakistan’s wild west: Balochistan. This is again one of the many hundred subterfuges that Pakistan has resorted to in order to veil its ineffective, inefficient governance and its inability to break the nexus between ISI, Army and the Taliban. However, we are not talking of that in this post.

I intend to bring to foreground, the dirt, dust and trash that the Indian government has been sweeping under its carpet for many many years now. This is to deal with in home Militant movements. Sample this:

1.About a month ago, India released a list of 34 militant bodies who it had banned. At that number, India had the largest number of doemstic terror groups. Read: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India/India-has-largest-number-of-domestic-terror-groups/articleshow/4694618.cms
2.The Naxalite movements in Lalgarh in West Bengal and Chattisgarh have hogged the limelight in terms of the violence, killing for sometime now.
Read: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India/Op-Lalgarh-was-waiting-to-happen/articleshow/4664991.cms; http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/12-policemen-killed-in-Naxal-blast-in-Chhattisgarh/articleshow/4510576.cms
3.Naxalite movements are yet again on the up in many more states. Read: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-2494458,prtpage-1.cms
4.A considerable portion of our army is battling this in-home terror movement and the resources going waste are enormous.

My tours and travels have taken me around India and it is disconcerting how one part of India is so different/complete opposite from another part. This was the realization between glasses of Vodka at Hotel Hindustan International in Kolkata. Lalgarh was burning 180kms away from where I was sitting. Elsewhere, North Eastern states, have private militias and governments, which refuse to accept that they are the part of the Indian Republic. Private companies, which work in such areas exercise extreme caution in business and are frequently subjected to ransom demands. I have known such instances to happen. Bombs and deaths are commonplace. Travelling east of Guwahati and Jorhat is a peril that you and I can ill afford. Local police is inadequately armed against the AK 47s/56s brandished by these militants.

North Eastern states are to India what Balochistan is to Pakistan.
Corruption, under development, mis-management, bad governance and economic under development stoke the fire of hatred. The gun that fires is obtained from destabilizing external forces and yet the hand that fires it is Indian. An Indian neglected so long, he does-not care to be called one. Anti-terror tactics is good, but this has to be complemented by an all inclusive growth plan. Good governance is good economics and it is time that people from these neglected corners are given a better deal.

The virtues of Swine Flu

2009-08-06T22:40:00.000-07:00

The death of 14 year old Reeda Sheikh has been a rude awakener for the lax health care and government officials. The emergency mode has now been activated meaning that a few hospitals, doctors and quarantine sectors have been put up in a jiffy and news channels are constantly blaring smallest tit-bits about Swine Flu and the H1N1 virus.Yet again, we seem to have missed the point. In hackneyed words, we are still treating the diseased and not the disease. We are still curing the outbreak instead of preventing it. As a nation we are woefully short of a plan, a policy to handle such outbreaks.

For starters, lets put up with two facts: Swine Flu is spreading fast. However, it is treatable. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome had a mortality rate 15 times that of swine flu. The Flu’s death rate estimate is 1%. Health officials point out that many more die from regular flu.

However a proper response to pandemic or in imagined worst case scenario of Bioterrorism is still missing. Widespread closures, isolation, quarantines are ineffective and impractical. It does-not solve the problem and instead ends up hurting the economic engine.

The focus of the health care systems in India would have to be:
1.Testing and Early detection: It would need to open emergency testing sites outside/away hospital areas with the equipment and manpower to administer early detection. Doing it away from the regular hospitals is imperative, to dis-allow infections to spread through people who already have medical complications.
2.Adequate stockpiles of drugs necessary to treat the virus strain are necessary.
3.Complete treatment should be taken up to prevent mutations of the strain which could render the present medications ineffective.
4.The mass media channels spread more mis-information than information. The government and the health care officials would have to tap this media to educate and disseminate information within the people.
5.One needs a SOP, disaster management system and a properly documented process documented on “how to” deal with such pandemics. This would categorize the “class” of the outbreak and who/how to mobilize support in face of such outbreaks.

Thus, in the whole, Swine Flu should serve as a template for the government to check on its emergency response systems to such outbreaks.

Web 2.0: How it is culturally influencing the growth of India

2009-08-05T22:44:00.000-07:00

A recent nationwide survey of Urban students has some sharp revelations. Going by the trends suggested in this survey, India will emerge as a Internet super power sooner than expected. Urban students are digital natives, reveals the TCS Generation Web 2.0 survey.
Looks like the dawn of the new Indian

Highlights:

63 per cent of urban students spend over an hour online daily
93 per cent are aware of social networking
Orkut and Facebook are most popular online destinations
46 per cent use online sources to access news; TV, newspaper users at 25 per cent
62 per cent have a personal computer at home
1 in 4 students own laptops in metros;
2 of 3 own music players
IT and engineering remain overwhelming popular career choices
Media and Entertainment, Travel and Tourism are emerging careers
USA, UK top list of international destinations for higher studies Mumbai

A new survey of India’s school children shows that ”The Web 2.0 Generation” are digital natives, with high technology savvy, global in terms of aspirations and outlook as well as being increasingly optimistic about India’s economic future. The survey, conducted by India’s largest IT solutions provider Tata Consultancy Services, is among the largest youth surveys in India, and was conducted across 14,000 high-school children between the ages of 12-18 in 12 cities across India during 2008-09.

“Nearly one out of 10 people on the planet are under 25 years old and living in India. That is the significance of India’s next generation and what they do, think and aspire to hold insights for all those who aim to engage with this Web 2.0 Generation,” said S Ramadorai, CEO and MD, TCS. “The TCS Generation Web 2.0 survey confirms that today’s students are shifting their academic and social life online and embracing the digital world as true digital natives. This societal trend has important implications for parents, educators, policy makers, as future employers as well as companies and brands that want to sell to tomorrow’s generation.”

Mr Ramadorai added, “The Web 2.0 Generation will shape the next phase of India’s growth and success. What this group does and how it interacts with others, its interests and aspiration need to be considered as we all plan for the future. TCS plans to use some of the findings to understand the next generation better and it will help us not just to find the best potential employees for the future, but also guide us to engage and communicate with them more effectively.”

The TCS Generation Web 2.0 survey, conducted for the first time in 2008-09, highlights that urban school children in the metros and mini-metros are immersed online and have the technology at hand to access information through the net at all times. Over 80 per cent have access to mobile phones, find time for the internet alongside school, classes and extracurricular activities, and are starting to embrace Web 2.0 tools like blogs and social networking sites.
The desire to study abroad cuts across students nationwide with USA being the most preferred destination with nearly 40 per cent preferring to study there. For some students, physical proximity plays a part in the choice of overseas education destination, especially in the mini-metros. Singapore and Dubai are preferred by one in five students in Chennai and Cochin respectively as top choice for overseas education.

At a relatively young age, India’s urban students are thinking about travel, learning new skills, experience and salary as when they consider future careers.

TCS has identified the youth in four categories -

The Globetrotter: Today’s students continue to express a strong desire to be mobile like previous generations. The Globetrotter has global ambitions and wants to study and work abroad. However, a growing confidence in the economic future in India is also reflected in the survey as many students, though keen to study abroad and gain global exposure, are also keen to bring skills back to India and put them to use here.
The Gadgetphile: Students from both metros and mini-metros who love gadgets and aspire to have the latest products available. The i-Pod Indian is more likely to be found with access to a web-enabled mobile, the latest gaming console, i-Pods and if he/she doesn’t have one, then aspires to own an i-Phone.
The Nation-builder: The Indian student is focused on his/her career but is as much interested in the additional benefits that careers brings, such as travel, learning new skills, experience to be gained, interesting workplace, and salary. This Career Kid is also starting to branch out of the traditional career choices and going for some new options like gaming and animation. The Nation-Builder is optimistic about Indian companies and favours them over the most popular international MNCs. The Social
Networker: A true digital native, the Social Networker is likely to have as many online friends as real ones and these friendships go beyond the traditional boundaries of gender, caste, and geographies. The Social Youth communicates with anyone and everyone as long as they have the same interests. This child could mark the start of a new democracy where he/she reaches out to more people through social networks and is likely to be more socially active, willing to gather other like-minded youths or even form social network parties.

Pakistan sees India when they see SWAT

2009-07-23T22:49:00.000-07:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124823898093171403.html
What goes around comes around. A fundamental learning that Pakistan seems to have forgotten as they allege “Indian Links” to militant activities in their country. Reproducing Mathew Rosenburg article in Wall Street Journal: Pakistan sees India when they see WSJ.

Surrounded by aides and fellow officers, a large map propped up behind him, Maj. Gen. Sajjad Ghani lays out the battle plan for Pakistan's Swat Valley. He details how the Pakistani army swept in from the south and north in a "double pincer." He motions his pointer at the towns and villages where the fighting was fiercest and explains how the militants eventually melted away in the face overwhelming firepower.

Most of this is a well-worn narrative of the battle for Swat until Gen. Ghani, the commander of the northern half of the valley, turns to the alleged Indian role in the fighting.The Taliban, he explains, is "being directed, commanded and controlled by some of our hostile intelligence agencies being controlled by our neighboring country."

In case you didn't get it, that's code for India. And he doesn't stop there. He calls the town of Matta, a major Taliban stronghold in Swat, the "Benares of terrorism," using the old name of Hinduism's holiest city, Varanasi.

To outsiders, such comments are easily dismissed as the unscripted remarks of a conspiracy-minded soldier who has spent a lifetime preparing to fight his country's larger and more powerful rival.

But spend enough time in Pakistan, and you'll hear it expressed over and over again by everyone from street-side tea vendors to university students to senior officials. Most who offer up the theory seem to genuinely believe it. They see the Taliban's advance in Pakistan as part of a larger Indian conspiracy to encircle the country by building ties to the U.S. and Afghanistan, never mind that the Taliban is fighting U.S. and Afghan forces.

"Some circles believe that the Indian consuls in Afghanistan, fully supported by the U.S., are creating mayhem and sabotaging peace in Pakistan," wrote the Daily Express, an Urdu-lanaguage newspaper, in a June 30 editorial. "The Pakistani army should come down hard on anyone who is playing in the hands of foreign powers, including Baitullah Mehsud," the nominal leader of the Pakistan Taliban.

Rarely is any evidence proffered or India directly named. The comments usually come off as ham-handed attempts to deflect from Pakistan's own failures, as India itself often is quick to blame a "foreign hand" in atrocities before there has even been time to gather evidence. (Sometimes, of course, the foreign hand is at play – witness Mohammed Ajmal Kasab's confession Monday in Mumbai.)

Ironically, Pakistan's blaming India for its problems in Swat may actually, and unintentionally, have served a useful purpose in the broader anti-Taliban push. The idea that fighting the Taliban is tantamount to fighting India appears to have helped drive a massive turnaround in Pakistani public opinion, giving the government and the army the backing it needs to aggressively fight the militants.

"We've externalized an internal problem," says a senior Pakistani official who's often been critical of the government's ambiguous relationship with Pakistan's myriad Islamist militant groups.
The official doesn't believe predominately Hindu India is backing one of the world's fiercest Islamist movements, calling the suggestion "nonsense." And he says there's no organized effort to paint the Taliban as India's proxy even though many officials and generals "really believe it."
Still, "it's helped at a time when we really need the help," he says.

Some of the shift in public sentiment away from the peace accord with the Taliban signed in February undoubtedly is due to the Taliban's brutal rule of Swat. One widely circulated video showed the militants flogging a teenage girl accused of having an improper relationship with a man.

The Taliban also began to move into neighboring districts, raising alarms among Pakistan's urban middle and upper classes, some of whom sympathize with the Taliban but few of whom want to actually be ruled by the militants.

But anti-India sentiment has clearly played a role in rallying the Pakistani public and, perhaps more important, the deeply nationalistic military to support a broad anti-Taliban offensive. Such sentiment, however, also suggests that Pakistan won't lead a full-scale clampdown on all the country's myriad Islamist militant groups, many of which had long been used by Pakistan as proxies in Afghanistan and India's part of Kashmir. It's not all Islamist militants that are the problem, the thinking goes, just those being used by our enemies.

That helps explain why many Pakistanis opposed the Taliban in Pakistan yet at the same time support, to some degree, the Afghan Taliban, which is seen as distinct. It also explains why the Afghan Taliban and its allies still rely on safe havens on the Pakistani side of the border.
In fact, ask a Pakistani civilian or military official what the biggest problem in the region is, and only the rare few tell you it's the Taliban. Most say it's the presence of U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces next door.

Now is the time for Economics 2.0.

2009-07-19T23:44:00.000-07:00

Economics, the way we know it must change. For 200 years and more after Adam Smith propounded the first theories of Economics, there may be a need to look beyond them. For the last 2 centuries, Economics as a science has been used to describe effort, need, productivity and transactions both at an individual and a national/global scale and this is still gaining relevance. Economic indicators have also often been the benchmark to imply societal development. It is not uncommon that a nation with higher per capita income is more developed and prosperous or the largest GDP states are the most advanced. However, in view of a few more variables today, the meanings of human/social development have become more complex than the economic constructs.

Two most important variables apart from transactional economics are:
· Effect of Climate change
· Holistic societal development

Economics discounts Climate and Environmental Factors
Widespread environmental changes will significantly alter the course of human history going forward. These changes pose clear and present danger in front of the states, citizens and their economies. Emissions and pollutant discharge are a direct function of the level of industrialization of economies. While it isn’t possible switching off the growth engines of the economy, the switch-over to environmentally safe and renewable energy sources will take another 20/30 years to take shape and have an impact. Reducing Carbon footprint is till now a very low scale exercise. Over and above this, is the debate on reduction of emissions in developed versus developing states.

Developmental economics or the present indices do not measure the impact of growth on environmental resources. Thus, the growth today can lead to environmental, climatic or socio economic risks tomorrow. The concept of GDP or economics based measurement is thus a failure in this regard.

Economics discounts parameters of Human and Societal development
Inequities within societies and states have existed forever in history, The current economics do not measure societal development parameters like pure water availability, food security, literacy and education, Infant Mortality rates and Child malnutrition and various other parameters. Economic development has been associated with resource exploitation. The best case in point is Oil, the lifeline of modern day economics.

The point of engaging economics, environment and human developmental issues is to hence build sustainability of progress and spread the fruits of development amongst people and states. There is a need to radically rethink Economics to address these grave issues.

Tongue in Cheek: India's Hungry Millions

2009-07-17T23:18:00.000-07:00

The National family health survey (2006) confirmed that the child malnutrition rate in India is 46%, almost double that of Sub Saharan Africa. India, which is the world’s second fastest growing economy is ranked 66 out of 88 on the Global Hunger Index (2008) by the International Food Policy Research Institute below Sudan, Nigeria and Cameroon and slightly above Bangladesh.

Obama's Policy making: Of Double speak and Duplicity

2009-07-16T23:08:00.000-07:00

There are serious chinks in Obama’s bid to non-proliferate the world. In fact from a no nonsense perspective, Obama’s administration seems to indulge in double speak and double standards. On one hand, his “eager” attempts to cut down the nuclear arsenal of US and Russia are quarter baked. Even if the suggested reduction of strategic nuclear warheads happens, there is enough that is left (three quarters) to smoke out each other and the world several times over!

On the other hand US’s move into the G8 to deny enrichment and reprocessing facilities to India as a non signatory to NPT is a key deterrent to the issue of Climate change. This is expected to figure in Secretary of state Hillary’s visit to New Delhi soon.

From the Indian perspective, reprocessing of spent fuel is imperative if India were to proceed with the indigenous, three stage, Thorium based Nuclear powered energy programme. Denial of re-processing facilties will slow down India’s nuclear power programme, inhibiting India-US cooperation on nuclear power and not exactly serving the cause of replacing polluting hydro-carbons with clean nuclear energy. Sadly, itwould also undermine the letter and the spirit of the October 2008 123 agreement and the “clean waiver” that the nuclear suppliers group accorded to India.

Cold wind from Washington

2009-07-15T00:26:00.000-07:00

The Obama administration has to realize that there is a crucial difference between the Cold War-type relations that the US is accustomed to making, and dealing with India. Re-producing an article profiling the Indo US relations in the current context. http://www.livemint.com/2009/07/16213824/Cold-wind-from-Washington.html

After the last eight years of warmth and friendship, Indo-US relations are heading towards the thermidor, unless, of course, corrective action is taken soon. Given the current posture of the Barack Obama administration this appears unlikely, though it cannot be ruled out. As US secretary of state Hillary Clinton begins her India visit, she should bear this in mind in her engagement with Indian leaders.

The why of the sudden decline in warmth is a complicated story, one that is linked to domestic US politics (such as the efforts to wipe clean the legacy of George Bush Jr) and the world view of the Democratic Party. This need not detain us: What is important are the visible, if not glaring, signs of trouble. Here is a sampler:

l. US efforts to undo the gains made by India under the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement. A recent example is the G-8 resolution aimed at tightening the spread of nuclear enrichment and reprocessing technologies. This was moved at the behest of the US and was aimed at India. This has the potential to damage relations as nothing else can.
2.US pressure, in concert with that from the European Union, to make India adhere to binding greenhouse gas emission targets. While such pressure is being exerted on India, there is silence on providing India with climate change effect mitigation technologies and financial help.
3.Efforts at “rehyphenation” with Pakistan and goading India into meaningless talks with the latter. That is not all: Under Pakistani influence, the US nearly made Kashmir a part of special envoy Richard Holbrooke’s mandate. It was only Indian lobbying (of “Israeli proportions”, as one commentator put it) that made the US back off. It also is against India building a durable presence in Kabul though Indian efforts are aimed at helping Afghans rebuild their country.

The Obama administration has to realize that there is a crucial difference between the Cold War-type relations that the US is accustomed to making, and dealing with India: workable in good times and disposable in bad situations (two good examples being Pakistan and Indonesia). India is not in that class of nations, nor is it an age in which Washington can bend nations in that manner.

Here it is pertinent to add that India is not victim to blind anti-Americanism of the kind that afflicts Third World countries. If the relationship has to move ahead, it has to be on realistic lines. Friendship has little meaning when one partner is actively trying to subvert the interests of the other

Parched and Powerless: New Delhi’s sad story

2009-07-10T22:58:00.000-07:00

The DJB and the BSES cut a very sorry figure in terms of provisioning and governance of two very valuable resources, Water and Electricity.

From the water perspective, Delhi faces 400 MGD shortage despite getting the maximum supply ever. Delhi receives 830 MGD (Million Gallons per Day) water, the highest ever and yet the DJB quotes the demand supply gap to be 40 MGD (Supply figures quoted at 830 MGD) Ironically enough, the 830 MGD supply equals 274 litres per capita per day, which is 50% higher than the recommendations of the central public health and environmental engineering organization recommendations of 172 litres per capita per day.

The problems arise due to losses from leakages; about 45% is lost in distribution and transmission. The DJB is seeking to replace a large part of the distribution lines to curtail such losses.
Inequitable distribution and lack in storage capacity are other issues plaguing the water availabilities. Underground reservoirs have been commissioned, which once functional will ease up the distribution.
Lack of proper water supply is resulting in rapid depletion of the groundwater resources.
DJB has also not been able to plan as per the rapid population expansion, which raises a question on its capabilities to deliver as per the plan.
In absence of rain water harvesting solutions, 40000 MGD of water during monsoons is wasted in Delhi! Out of 53 rain water reservoirs sanctioned to the capital in 2000, only 24 have been commissioned, 10 will be commissioned in 2010 12 next year and work is yet to begin on 7 more.

Elsewhere, in power, Delhi has added only 230 MW extra power capacity in 7 years where as the demand of power is up 1100 MW. Delhi only produces 17% of the power it consumes and the last significant addition to production capacity in Delhi was in 2002, with 4 projects in the pipeline with the earliest date of commissioning to be next year. This is in-spite of the fact that the annual increase in demand is about 10 – 15%. Result is a 1040 MW shortfall against a demand of 4171 MW. The load sheddings in June 2009 have been 28.5 million units, which are a 400% increment over the June 2008’s 6.7 million units.

A small price the city commuters are having to pay for the lack of power are traffic jams triggered by non functional traffic signals. There is no back up power from inverters aggravating the chaos that is Delhi.

Tongue in Cheek: Mayawati's Maya

2009-07-03T05:16:00.000-07:00

State of affairs in the Uttar Pradesh .. following the statue scam.

Liberhan commission report and its impact on the BJP

2009-07-02T22:11:00.000-07:00

It took the Liberhan commission 17 years, 100 witnesses, 399 sittings, 48 extensions and 9 crores to floor its report on the Babri Masjid demolition. It could not have come at a more worse time for BJP. Already under seizure and disarray for its electoral debacle, and under acute identity crisis seeking to re-define its fundamentals from a right wing hardcore Hindutva base to a more relevant pedestal, the findings could push them a little closer to tatters. As a part of its strategy, Congress would use this as its knock out punch for the down and beaten BJP. The list of accused include L K Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti, Sadhvi Rithambra, Ashok Singhal and more. Is this then the death of BJP?

I would view this knock out as a opportunity for BJP to clean up its tainted past, cut its umbilical cords with Hindutva and the Sangh, refresh its leadership completely, review its own partners and part ways with dubious ones and resurrect itself from its core. BJP has some good results to show in terms of its efforts for business and economic development (remember Vajpayee’s Golden Quadrilateal or Modi’s Gujarat) and it has to build these platforms to showcase its stand for progress, development and prosperity. This probably is the nadir in BJP’s political history. It runs the risk of disintegrating and collapsing totally or it can resurrect itself from the shadows of the past. I hope for the later. Politically, India needs BJP as an right wing moderate alternative against the Congress.

Ref:

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/is-it-time-for-bjp-and-left-to-rift.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-iii-lack-of.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-ii-lack-of-electoral.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/06/bjp-imploding-part-i-lack-of-coherent.html

Tongue in Cheek: The Chinese Green Dam Parody

2009-07-02T04:42:00.000-07:00

Green Dam Software
The be-all and end-all of Chinese internet censorship effort, is the Green Dam software.Green Dam software is intended to stamp out Internet pornography, and computer companies had originally been told that from Wednesday they had to bundle "Green Dam" with all personal computers heading to stores for sale.

However, the seriousness of the effort was lost, when the Green Dam barred popular cartoon Garfield, Johny Depp and other innocent images. The reason was attributed to the deep orange colour of the images, which is screened by the software (Due to similarity with Nudes). Interestingly once the filter is turned off on the computer, graphic sexual images can also be downloaded.

It happens only in India

2009-06-29T22:50:00.000-07:00

45000 out of an estimated 85000 registered as MCD (Municipal Commission Delhi) employees are fake/not traceable. The estimated numbers of the “missing” is still a riddle but the numbers could be double than present estimates. How or why could such a brazen act of corruption is best left to state investigations. But a correction and weeding out could lead to a saving of Rs.500 to 1000 crore annual saving on a Rs.207 crore monthly wage bill.

Elsewhere, the dalit poster girl, behen Mayawati has embarked on a Rs.2681 crore project to have herself, her mentor, Kanshiram, Baba Saheb Ambedkar sculpted in stone and beautify Lucknow city. The plan involves 45 red stone statues, 60 elephant statues and 413 acres of prime land in Lucknow. The annual cost of maintenance is expected to be Rs.270 crore. All this, when the largest population of people below the poverty line – 59 million belong to UP. This money could have wiped out poverty of thousands of people, provided education and amenties to more.

Food security bill, which is under discussion currently, and is expected to provide upto 25 kgs of grains per month to BPL households at a subsidized rate of Rs.3/kg has come up for some execution challenges. The planning commission’s stidy of 2005 shows that roughly 58% of grains issued from the RDS do not reach BPL families due to problems ranging from targeting errors to corruption all along the chain. Worse, there is a no standard in defining and identifying a BPL Family. Planning Commission puts the number of BPL families at 65.9 million, BPL cards issued by states is 107 million and a second and more recent estimate by the planning commission puts this number at 66 million.

So much for accountability and misuse of public funds in the country.

India: A worrisome fiscal situation

2009-06-29T01:56:00.000-07:00

A very important part of populist measures of the incumbent government is to provide equal earning and job opportunities to all. Towards this, the National Rural Employment guarantee scheme (NREGS) is a tool for equitable employment and pay disbursals. However a bad monsoon can turn this tool into a fiscal nightmare. A bad monsoon will ensure that the number of people seeking jobs under NREGS will swell. Being an entitlement based programme, the government has to give employment to anyone who demands it. Recently it announced that a further Rs.9000 crore would be spent under NREGS, taking the total expected spending under it in fiscal 2009 to Rs.39000 crore. That was when the effect of Monsoons were not taken into consideration. With this new exigency in horizon, the NREGS spends may be spiraling out of control. A substantial portion of the fiscal deficit was due to budgeting of expenditures for farm loan waivers and expenditure under NREGS.

Already the economic slowdown and the threat of fiscal deficit hitting the double digits is likely to limit the UPA government from unleashing it full deck of “Aam Aadmi” agenda. Increasing the budgetary spending is only possible when the economy recovers on the path to 8 – 9% growth rate.

In February, the government had set a fiscal deficit target of 5.5% of GDP for 2009-10 but increased its borrowing target to Rs.3.62 trillion from Rs.3.05 trillion last year.
In the first month of the fiscal year, the government already achieved 16% of its fiscal deficit target. The reduction in excise tax by 6% as a part of stimulus package and the Food Security act (which provides food-grains @ Rs.3 per KG to below poverty line beneficiaries) is expected to hit the state coffers.With an expected shortfall of Rs.26000 crore in tax collections and an increased expenditure of Rs.24000 crores (Not counting in the impact of late Monsoons), the Fiscal deficit may be grim, very grim.

Tongue in Cheek: Plutonomy

2009-06-29T01:55:00.001-07:00

Plutonomy: Coined by Ajay Kapur, Citigroup’s global strategist in 2006, the term denotes an economy that derives its strength from the assured consumption of the super rich.

Tongue in Cheek: Energy estimates in the world

2009-06-29T01:49:00.000-07:00

Research by Harvard University suggests, that the world’s conventional oil and gas alone contains 1000 terawatts worth of energy; coal has 5000, the amount of solar energy falling on earth every year is 30000; and our total current use worldwide is only 15 terawatts-years per year. The trick, of course, is in converting this potential into actual available energy.

Tongue in Cheek:Global loss in wealth due to Financial Meltdown

2009-06-29T01:43:00.000-07:00

The world wealth report (June 2009) released by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini estimates a damage of $8 trillion (Rs. 388 trillion) due to the financial meltdown of the world economy in 2008.

India and China: Growth Construct

2009-06-26T02:27:00.001-07:00

The return of global liquidity is a welcome sign in the recession and downturn strife economies of the world. Amidst the recoveries, India and China have been the earlier ones (alongside Russia and Brazil). The economy growth patterns and road maps of both the economies have been diametrically opposite. While China’s growth has been a function of the demand in consumer markets in the west and its export surplus, the Indian market is domestic demand led. The liquidity crisis affected both these economies in different manners: For China it reduced the export demand and for India, it reduced the external funding and investments.

Two interesting studies, one by Morgan Stanley and the other by World Bank seem to indicate the return of liquidity will benefit India more than China as India and China will pare off in growth rates with India nudging ahead of China.

Even more interesting is Morgan Stanley’s prediction of annual GDP growth for the period 2011-15. While India’s GDP growth under the baseline scenario during these years is predicted to be 7.5% per annum, China’s too is pegged at 7.5%. Similarly, under the bullish scenario, both Indian and Chinese growth during 2011-15 is forecast to be 9% per annum. But in the bear scenario, India is expected to do even better than China, growing at 6.3% compared with China’s 6%.

Even the world bank in a report released on 22nd June ,2009 forecasts that India’s GDP growth in 2010, at 8%, will be higher than China’s growth rate of 7.5% that year. Further, in 2011, both India and China are expected to grow at the same 8.5% rate.

The Tiger is for the first time looking to outrun the Dragon. So, what could be the reason of the Indian Surge/Chinese Slowdown?

China is more exposed to the vagaries of the world market because of its high trade intensity. A Japan style secular slowdown in the US and Europe over the next decade will hurt China more than India unless China moved beyond its admittedly successful mercantilism.
The FDI boom in China since the mid 90s pushed its investment rate, enabled technology transfer and plugged the nation into global supply chains. All this took China closer to the global efficiency frontier, but it now seems that diminishing returns are setting in.
Future growth in China will have to depend on domestic demand and local innovation, which means China will have to change its growth model.
The fast ageing Chinese society will increase the dependency ratios and social costs.
Concern arises from the fact that growth in China will taper off once the push from the Chinese stimulus package runs out of steam and its loan push slow.(In the chart, China’s GDP growth spurts in initial quarters as the result of the stimulus but decelerates as the effect dissipates)
Cost based Chinese manufacturing may be over-rated. Albert Edwards, global strategist at Societe Generale, writes: “Most areas in the markets have now discounted a V-shaped recovery. Any doubt will trigger a rapid reversal in prices. I continue to be extremely sceptical and see recent events as part of a 1930s-like long march to revulsion. Talking about long marches, nowhere in the world fills me with more scepticism than the Chinese economic recovery. The continued enthusiasm for all things Chinese reminds me so much of the way investors were almost totally blind to the fact that the US growth miracle was built on sand. China could be the biggest disappointment yet.”

The challenges that both these economies will stand up to fuel their growth stories are again very diverse:
For China, it will be a transition to domestic led growth
For India, it is going to be building infrastructure and its fiscal woes (owing to a bad governance and the quality of national leadership)

Reference:

Catching up with China on Fast Growth Track:

http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/24001454/Catching-up-with-China-on-fast.html?h=B

Can India run ahead of China

http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/24221512/Can-India-run-ahead-of-China.html

Tongue in Cheek: The cost of Climate change

2009-06-26T00:39:00.001-07:00

ADB in a recent report on the economics of climate change in South East Asia has indicated that the cost of adverse impacts of climate changes would be 6% to 7% of Southeast Asia’s income each year by the end of the century.

Tongue in Cheek: Asia and Global Warming

2009-06-24T04:00:00.000-07:00

Developing Asia already accounts for one third of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is expected to increase this contribution to 40% by 2030,making it the main driver of global warming.

Will Monsoons spook Economic Growth away?

2009-06-23T00:29:00.001-07:00

The biggest driver of Indian Economy numbers through the downturn was a bouyant domestic demand. This helped it tide over the economic doom better than most of the countries around the world. However, the spectre of a bad monsoon actually is more insidious to the Indian economy than anything else. And this is one threat the Indian economy is somewhat less prepared to coast over.

The crisis
World Meterological organization warns of greater than average chance of El Nino thus having profound impact on the Indian Monsoons. As it stands, the Indian Monsoon has barely progressed in the last two weeks (2nd/3rd week June).The annual June-September monsoon generates nearly 80% of the annual rainfall over the country and is vital for the economy, being the main source of water for agriculture, which accounts for around 17% of India’s gross domestic product (GDP). Other than the 60% of the country’s workforce that depends on agriculture, the rains are also important for traders dealing in food and cash crops.As of 17th June, the latest estimate shows a 45% shortfall in rainfall.28 out of 36 meterological sub divisions have recorded scanty rainfall as against 4 divisions last year. Read Could El Nino dry up the economy's green shoots? http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/08003141/Could-El-Nino-dry-up-the-econo.html?d=1

The Reason
A full fledged El Nino was only expected around August, commented Mr. Madhavan Rajeevan, meteorologist at ISRO.The only ray of hope is the fact that not all El Ninos are bad: 1997 El Nino led to excess rainfall. 2002 and 2004 El Ninos associated with severe droughts. However statistics favours El Ninos association with droughts: Between 1880 and 2006, 12 out of 18 El Ninos have corresponded with drought like conditions/below normal rainfall.

The Impact
Drought is the most eminent risk of the El Nino fall out with Khariff crops being at risk.Technically speaking a Rainfall deficiency of 10% or more is defined as a drought. Since, 55-60% of the Khariff crop is dependent on Monsoon, a small variation in the rainfall totals can impact the crop very adversely, There has been a drastic dip in water reservoir levels across several states. In nearly 80 national reservoirs, the water stored is 1/3rd less compared with the same time last year.and if not replenished during monsoons, irrigation water will be deficient, because drinking water needs would come first.

Long Term Damage and Control
The current year’s monsoon is considered to be crucial for the economy as buoyant rural consumption has been a key driver of growth amid an economic downturn (read http://www.livemint.com/2009/04/17234039/Monsoon-booster-for-rural-dema.html?d=1). While the country has sufficient food stocks to tide over any crisis this year, the macro economic pressure is expected to accrue on account of food price inflation.

In Orissa, Industries have been asked to cut down their production levels, because of low reservoir levels resulting in low electricity generation. Power deficit levels are expected to be 20 – 30%, even in a power surplus state like Orissa. Elsewhere in Chattisgarh, the Government has already purchased and stored 370,000 tonnes of rice and is ready to procure rice from outside as well. Madhya Pradesh is worst off in terms of reservoir crisis. Reservoirs which were full last year, are all running empty.

A shortfall in rainfall could also impact the power generation in the country. Agricultural demand for power would go up and power availability from hydroelectric projects would come down. This would impact the power supply position in the country.

Source: Truant rains could nix nascent recovery: http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/22235043/Truant-rains-could-nix-nascent.html?pg=1

Also Read: Changing Monsoon trends: http://www.livemint.com/2009/04/30222403/Changing-monsoon-trend-forces.html?d=1

http://www.livemint.com/2009/05/25092131/Monsoon-hits-Indian-coast-ear.html?d=1

Tongue in Cheek: What a waste!

2009-06-22T02:24:00.001-07:00

A new section in Newspaper Posts, Tongue In Cheek, is about interesting facts and annecdotes concerning the world around us. Your comments as always are welcome.

Approximately 40% of the farm produce (Fruits and Vegetables) in India is wasted in the absence of organized cold chain network in the country.

New Tools, new approaches

2009-06-21T22:46:00.003-07:00

An excellent article reproduced from Mint's article on comparison on collaborative growth (Chinese approach) versus Inclusive growth (Indian Approach) by S Narayan (former finance secretary and economic adviser to the government).http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/21203159/New-tools-new-approaches.html?h=D

China is focusing on massive infrastructure investment--less than 40% of this is from its central budget

There is a quiet in the corridors of government, and people in the know attribute it to ministries getting down to serious work. There is evidence of cleaning up in several ministries, with changes in the higher echelons of bureaucracy and a revamp of the personal staff of some ministers. The Budget is only a couple of weeks away, and the big companies are making effective use of the media to lobby their requests for tax breaks and tariff reductions. There has been a very good article by Narayana Murthy of Infosys that recommends downplaying the Budget into a revenue-balancing exercise and focusing on deliverables and programmes.

The Prime Minister has made it clear that he wants growth back to double digits, and the good news is that inflation is also falling. There is sufficient liquidity in the system, and there are investors willing to back the equity markets. The poor monsoon is cause for worry, but many financial firms are upgrading India’s 2009 growth prospects.

Financial investment firms upgraded prospects for China as well, based on the financial stimulus packages announced by that government. China has just announced $20 billion loan assistance to Russia, clearly indicating its financial superiority. It is interesting to compare the policy approach for stimulus used by China with that in India. The (Chinese) approach followed has been to focus on a massive infrastructure investment programme of half a trillion dollars. Interestingly, less than 40% of this is from the Chinese central budget—the local governments have been asked to find the balance and to implement the programmes. Banks have been asked to lend to provincial governments for this purpose, and liquidity infusion into the economy is through credit for infrastructure projects. There is, thus, an incentive for provincial governments to take up and implement long-needed projects, and the financial wherewithal to do it. Implementation is monitored through a simple incentive—governors who do well will be rewarded in the party hierarchy; others will not. Among the more important programmes is environment—cleaning waterways, urban waste management and water supply.

Let us compare this with the policy pronouncements made in the President’s address and in the Prime Minister’s letter to his cabinet colleagues. The focus is on “inclusive growth” that would be achieved by extension of the National Rural Employment Guarantee (NREG) programme, an Act to mandate food security—an extension of the NREG programme to urban areas, and liquidity infusion is through bank lending for the private sector and directed lending for agriculture. In short, while increases in liquidity are being targeted in China for the construction of infrastructure and the provision of improved services to citizens, in India it is being used for social welfare programmes and assisting the private sector. We could have done what China is doing, as we have a huge publicly owned banking system, and a federal structure that can reach to state governments and all major cities. Just imagine the benefits if the government had announced a major infrastructure programme in every major town over a one-million population, and left it to the local bodies to implement it, within technical and quality parameters laid down nationally—we would have our cities cleaned up and liveable in five years!

In the rural sector as well, something different is possible rather than granting agricultural loans and writing them off, leaving the farmer no better off. In investment terms, when banks give an agricultural loan, they are “long” on the crop— volume and prices, until the crop is ready. This is a financial risk taken by banks without adequate cover, given the volatility of crop yields and prices and the vagaries of the monsoon. This is the real subprime that hits bank balance sheets and government finances year after year. It should be easy to provide instruments in the markets where this risk could be mitigated by a vibrant spot and futures market of products. If agricultural produce could be stored and quality tested, then the receipts become marketable, with assured delivery at the end of the contract. From this, it is easy to develop futures and options that will mitigate risk. In effect, the bank lending for agriculture can continue, and the market would mitigate the risks of this lending through price and volume discovery that is transparent. Farmers would be benefited through a clear price for their products, middlemen would disappear, bank risk would be mitigated, and government interventions avoided. All that is needed is to create state-specific exchanges where such transactions can take place under the state regulators (under the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act), and encourage farmers to participate.

It is important to think of new approaches. The pattern of programmes outlined by the government is a revisit of the rural development and poverty alleviation programmes of the past several decades, without any attempt to learn from their failures or think in terms of the new, young, urbanizing population of today. The needs of the people, as well as their aspirations, have changed and perhaps we should use the new tools at our disposal in the financial and services sectors to deliver what the citizen expects.

Tongue in Cheek:Twitter ( 6 going to 18)

2009-06-21T22:46:00.001-07:00

A new section in Newspaper Posts, Tongue In Cheek, is about interesting facts and annecdotes concerning the world around us. Your comments as always are welcome.

Twitter has roughly 6 million users and is projected to grow to 18.1 million users by 2010. The next Black Swan in making?

Is it Time for BJP and Left to rift away from its ideological twins?

2009-06-20T00:56:00.000-07:00

Post the general elections, the BJP camp has been a veritable mess with accusations and counter accusations flying thick and high. While many theories are going around on the reasons of loss of stature of BJP, my personal belief is BJP lost because of its inadequate agenda. BJP failed to count on their noteworthy successes in governance and fell back on the Hindutva ideology. This has to do with the roots of BJP which are firmly grounded in the RSS and the “Sangh” which are fundamentalist Hindu by nature. Taking the Hindutva platform alienated the BJP from the minorities and the cause was not helped by the Gujarat Muslim pogroms and the Kandahar Christian massacres. Ultimately, the uncharismatic Advani tried to balance the image of a progressive BJP, with its plans for India and the radical Hindu beliefs of its parent, the RSS. The rest is history (as the word goes)

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ringsideview/entry/how_bjp_lost_the_plot
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/clicklit/entry/leave-hindutva-bjp-left-it
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/BJP-situation-now-volcanic-Sushma/articleshow/4658037.cms
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/BJP-cant-give-up-Hindutva-RSS-Joshi/articleshow/4663136.cms
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=HomePage&id=e9c731c5-d28e-442b-8b58-db89d142d300&Headline=Lok+Sabha+debacle+haunts+BJP+as+party+National+Executive+meet

In another news this morning P Chidambaram, the Union Home Minister has asked the West Bengal CM Budhadeb Bhattacharya to do the obvious: Ban the Maoists from the state. Questioning the wisdom of Left-ruled West Bengal for not banning CPI (Maoists) in the state, home minister P Chidambaram said, "I believe there are voices in West Bengal which have raised this issue. We think they should be banned in West Bengal as in other states." Security and intelligence agencies have been raising the issue for long, arguing that West Bengal has become a shelter for Red ultras who take refuge there after committing violence in neighbouring Jharkhand, Bihar and Orissa and also in faraway states like Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Why-arent-Maoists-banned-in-WB-asks-PC/articleshow/4675711.cms

Both these cases reflect the same fact: A relationship between two siblings (Marxists / Maoists and BJP / RSS). The difference being that one sibling has a progressive developmental perspective while the other is a more radical extremist ideology. Unfortunately, at this point of time, the road ahead presents a dilemma as these ideologies cannot have the same common identity and must part. It is time for the BJP leadership to recognize the fact that Hindutva is not a long term and sustainable platform (and instead it should look to eulogize its infrastructural achievements in Gujarat and else where). For the Kolkata based Left Government the choice is to dissociate with the Extreme Left Maoists to present itself in the right light to the people, for whom it stood for 32 years.

Kolkata's missing millionaires and Lalgarh

2009-06-19T20:26:00.000-07:00

(On an interview board, i was once asked the reason of West Bengal's fall from position of emminence. As a native Bong, i accept the feeling of dissapointment when Kolkata/West Bengal feature low in industry/infrastructure/investment indexes in India. Having spent some time in Kolkata, i realise that the historical city is now one in obsolesence. An interesting article summing up this situation by Anand Soondas: http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/onefortheroad/entry/kolkata-s-missing-millionaires-and)

Apart from the blood and blotch of Nandigram, and the nightmare that Lalgarh is turning out to be, there was one more, very telling, bad news that came from Bengal in recent times – that Kolkata, its capital city, could only notch up an abysmal number 26 on the list of India's rich cities. Anger has a deep connection with economics and politics. Lalgarh was waiting to happen.
Of course, chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and his comrade-in-arms would dismiss with practiced disdain the fact that Kolkata isn’t rich enough, but there's more to it that what the ruling Marxists would like us to believe. Bengal is just not creating any wealth, opportunity or even employment for its people.
For a city Kolkata's size, with an un-updated population of 15 million, drumming up a mere 15,853 millionaires hides a nightmarish horror tale. A comparison with the other three metros makes the city's tragedy quite clear. Comparable to Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore in both size and number of people – even modern history one would say, which has not been as violent and marginalizing as that of, perhaps, the North-East states – Kolkata figures nowhere even remotely near the 137,992, 100,039 and 104,852 millionaires that India's other main cities have to show for themselves. If the pathos has to be rubbed in just take a look at what Chandigarh, a city with a population 15 times less, has achieved. The rich list shows Le Corbusier's masterpiece showing off an applause-worthy 33,962 millionaires, twice that of Kolkata!
So what is the problem with the state that was one of the first ones to pick up the Queen's English, don the suit-and-tie and use fork and spoon to pick on eileesh. Anyone watching Bengal's steady decline will lay the blame squarely on the politics the state has come to understand and the ideology it has grown to adopt. It is something that fosters sloth, decay and, if truth be told, degeneration.
Some time ago, as I was sitting in one of Bandra's popular pubs, an ad-executive friend of mine recounted with shock how on visit to Kolkata a few years back he was stuck in the middle of Esplanade for a full 20 minutes in a tram that stopped because of a power cut. ``The crazy part was that no one was in a hurry to go anywhere,'' he said. ``In Bombay, people would have fidgeted after five minutes, crossed the tracks and moved on with their lives.''
True, that's probably what would have happened. But Kolkata isn't Mumbai. The politics won't let it be. In a May 2005 report titled `A tale of two states: Maharashtra and West Bengal', prepared by University of British Columbia professor Amartya Lahiri and economist Kei-Mu Yi, there is a clear link between economic evolution and political environment. Spanning the years between 1961 and 1991, the duo says that ``Bengal, which was one of the two richest states in India in 1960 has gone from a relative per capita income of about 105% of Maharashtra to a relative income of around 69%''. One of the important factors responsible for its woes, the economists say, is ``political development…namely the increasing vote share of the Leftist parties''.
No wonder then that the per capita income (2003-04 figures) of West Bengal in the 30 years since the state got its first Marxist chief minister stands at just Rs 20,896, much below those of Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Sikkim, Chandigarh, Delhi, Puducherry.
Nandigram and the millionaires' list, at two ends of the spectrum, should come as a deep pointer to the politics in comrade country. Large parts of Bengal are not even on the fringes of the IT revolution or the economic boom and brim with people who resemble those angry coalminers in Yash Chopra's 1979 classic Kaala Patthar – desperate, hungry, shorn of comforts and hanging on to whatever there is to be had from Party and profession. And the lorai, lorai korte hobe (fight, fight, we must fight) battle cry of the Left parties only serves as a trigger to a fury ready to be unleashed by the mostly-poor cadres. The Frankenstein’s monster that Lalgarh is had to come to life.
It serves perfectly fine for the ideology-spewing bhadralok neta swearing by everybody from Marx to Stalin, Lenin to Castro, Che to Chavez – and even Prachanda – to ``keep `em poor and burning''. That is why the Communists have through the years protested, often scuttled, everything needed for upliftment of people, from introduction of English in junior classes to multinationals setting up businesses. Because money brings comfort and comfort has an intrinsic liking for capitalism.
It isn't any surprise, therefore, that industrialization continues to be a taboo word in this part of the world. Just try investing some money in Purulia or the Parganas. It isn't easy. What is easy, though, is calling bandhs and blocking people from reaching offices, schools, factories.
Lalgarh has just emphasized how hard change is come by in Bengal. But until that happens, Kolkata will not be able to show up its millionaires and Bengal its progress. A mighty tragedy for a mighty state

Lalgarh: The Death of an Ideology as Red Rage boils over

2009-06-19T00:09:00.000-07:00

After 32 years of nothingness, as Bengal was left to a state of decrepit rot, with the ruling Communists doing precious little and nothing, the rage in Lalgarh now boils over. Media brands this as a Mao-ist and yet the question that one seeks to answer is: What social conditions would lead tribals and locals to take up such extreme measures as a means of self vindication. This is what 32 years of hunger, unemployment, abject poverty, lack of amenities, corruption, illiteracy, disillusionment and neglect can lead an unassuming mass of poor tribals into. Many brand this as Maoist. To me it is a revolution against the system, governance and bureaucracy.

Consider this:
The Lalgarh-Binpur block in West Midnapore district is only 180 Kms away from the state capital, Kolkata.
For decades, tribals in Lalgarh sat on a powder keg as naxals amassed guns ands bombs, indoctrinated illiterate village boys and fed on the disillusionment with the laid back and corrupt CPM administration
In the last 30 years, the left front has not built roads to connect the far flung villages, with only 1 bus plying between the district headquarters, Jhargram and Belparahai daily.
There have been deaths from Hunger in the nearby villages of Amlasole and Amjhora.These would tantamount to severe lapses in the district administration.
The NREGA has failed to provide any work to the villagers for the mandatory 100 days.
Inhabitants such as Ukil Murmu and his family have only earned Rs.1070 after working for 4 days, and that is all they have to live off for the remaining 361 days of the year till the next time they get some work.
There is no irrigation system and the only work available to majority of people here is tilling the land after the rains.

For years the corrupt Marxists in the left centred, Kolkata Writers Building have been blissfully unaware of the neglect and suffering they have put the state though.West Bengal progressively has lost its sheen post 1970s to upstarts such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The crisis that the Marxists face today is the threat from their own ideological brethren, Maoists, who are more “left” than the Left. Being unable to control the extremist form of their own identity is perhaps the biggest defeat of Communists and Marxists in Bengal.

The Communists in China engineered the brilliant re-surgence of China by following open market policies. That their Human rights records are not exactly the best is another thing altogether.In as far as the Communists of Bengal are concerned they can neither boast of Human developmenet indexes or economic progress indexes. Singrur, Nandigram, Khejuri and now Lalgarh are the shinning examples of the loss of an Idealogy.

There was a movie in 2002, Sanjiv Karambelkar's LAL SALAAM, directed by Gaganvihari Borate which foreboded the uprising in its present form in the Naxal led states. It was an authoritative portrayal of the plight of the tribals in face of Governmental atrocities and naxal pressures.A window to this world, it is a must see.

Are Infrastructural Shortages stiffling India

2009-06-18T04:16:00.001-07:00

Two seemingly unrelated news articles in Mint today and yet the connect between both of these is mighty and huge.

The first one is about World Bank raising the its forecast for China’s economic growth from 6.5% to 7.2%. This was due to strong government investment supporting growth of the economy.

The second article was a report on the delays in Mumbai’s Bandra-Worli sea link. The project is being opened this month after a four year schedule delay.

Yours truly, had the opportunity to visit China early this month and the two things that impressed me about China were:
Infrastructure that is at-least 10 – 15 years ahead of India.
The investor and business friendly legislations. The scale of Industry and SEZs and the tax exemptions to the industry.
China had embarked on the journey of open market economic liberation 12 years before India had. However, what seems evident in China is the way they have managed the madness of trade and economic liberalization. They built roads and bridges and power stations and ports and aerodromes to handle growth. India went about all this in a pretty unstructured way vacillating between governments and politics. The result is obvious: China, the most populous state in the world, the third largest economy in the world grows fastest, while the Indian Juggernaut is still taking off.

Hong-Kong Macau Sea Bridge

Bandra Worli Sea Link
The case in point is the Worli Bandra sea link. Conceived in 1990s, the 20 Kms Western Freeway project was designed to reduce the traffic choke on Mumbai road arterials as well as reduce the traveling time for commuters in the commercial hub of India. 8 years after the project had progressed, only half the number of lanes (4 out of 8) on a quarter of the actual length planned (5.6 out of 20 kms) is complete. That’s a project completion rate of 12.5% only in double the allotted time. Compare that with China, which has built 10 such sea links in 8 years. The Hong-Kong Macau sea bridge and the 32kms long Donghai bridge in Shanghai was completed in 3.5 years. The 43 Kms Hong Kong – Macau – GuangDong bridge will be built in 6 years.

Elsewhere in India, Delhi, the Metro Rail system is a better example of project management even though the same cannot be said for Common wealth preparation in Delhi.

Its time that all such projects are thoroughly examined by the state and centre governments and all and any causes of delay are penalized for incompetence. It is imperative that infrastructure projects are completed on time and schedule, for supporting the significant strides made by the Indian private sector.

BJP Imploding (Part III): Lack of Leadership and Way Ahead

2009-06-15T18:10:00.001-07:00

Lack of leadership
Taking a swipe at Advani, Karnad says, the problems of the BJP are manifested in the persona of Advani. An ineffably sad man who strived mightily to invent and reinvent himself—in his last stretch, as a latter day “ambassador of Hindu-Muslim unity”—he was flatly rejected by the people as much for his pretensions as, perhaps, for his lack of conviction. Wanting to be prime minister is no bad ambition to have; but, tethered to a nebulous set of beliefs, it became a liability.

The likely successor to Advani, Narendra Modi, too frittered away the opportunity to influence the public consciousness positively and to position himself as a leader of substance for the 2014 general election. Rather than talk about his success in providing power and water 24x7 to Gujarat—the only state to attain this—or his well-founded reputation for incorruptibility and, as its downstream effect, a clean administration at the grass-roots level, Modi heckled the ruling party as a “budhiya” (crone).

What Could be the way ahead?
Moderating its “Hindu” image (Influenced by the Saffron led RSS Militant Hinduism), replacing its intellectually exhausted and morally compromised leadership and returning to the virtues of party discipline, conviction and values that promote national integration and equality for all; pro-growth economic policies that encourage and reward entrepreneurship yet institute compassionate social safety nets; and a foreign policy that rests on confidence in India's ability to compete with the world all of this will position the BJP to capture a significant chunk of India's growing middle class. It can then capitalise on government shortcomings and the corruption issue, by forging winning coalitions with regional parties whose loyalties between the two national parties will continue to fluctuate.

BJP Imploding (Part II): Lack of Electoral Strategy

2009-06-14T02:04:00.001-07:00

Post Reference:
Bharat Karnad:professor at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. http://www.livemint.com/2009/05/31212229/BJP-finding-the-right-centre.html
Ramesh Thakur: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Editorial/TOP-ARTICLE--Press-The-Reset-Button/articleshow/4600720.cms

Anti-incumbency, a nondescript track record in office and an insufficiently thought through nuclear deal should have drubbed the Congress in this general election. The botch-up by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ended up increasing Congress’s margin in Parliament. But a larger truth lurks behind the BJP’s failure, beyond supposed lapses in electoral strategy and a misreading of the public mood. It even surpasses the little noticed irony of the Congress party acquiring a youthful sheen only because the dynast Rahul Gandhi hand-picked young men and women as candidates, something which L.K. Advani—heading a less autocratically run outfit—could not do. Its failures include lack of vision, leadership and strategy.

Lack of Electoral Strategy

The BJP's blistering attacks on Manmohan Singh as a weak and vacillating prime minister taking orders from the Gandhi family, turned the election into a referendum on Singh. Manmohan Singh’s a calming influence amidst terror attacks and the financial crisis and his qualities- decent, honest, unassuming, mild mannered, soft-spoken and likeable are rare qualities in politicians that sit agreeably with voters. So too did the renunciation of political office by Sonia and Rahul in contrast to the clutch of wannabe PMs from other parties. The squandering of economic opportunities over the past five years was blamed by voters on obstructionist coalition parties, not Singh. Attacking him provoked a backlash. Rahul and Priyanka presented younger Congress faces to the BJP's 81-year-old L K Advani. The moderate majority was repelled when fundamentalist Hindus attacked Christians in Orissa and young girls in a Mangalore pub. The BJP alienated its core constituency by hypocritical opposition to the nuclear deal with the US. Strenuously opposed by China, Pakistan and the non-proliferationists, the sweetheart deal was one the BJP would have grabbed in office. Yet it joined the communists with their long history of favouring foreign fellow-ideologues over national interests. Opportunity was squandered also with 26/11 when initial unity collapsed into shrill squabbling at a time of national peril. Attacked for his record on terrorism, Singh counter-punched by recalling Advani's hand-wringing as home minister during a string of terrorist attacks, including on Parliament; release of hardcore terrorists to the Taliban in Kandahar; the year-long military mobilisation against Pakistan that led nowhere; the Babri masjid demolition; and the anti-Muslim pogrom in Gujarat.
The BJP's reputation for communalism distanced allies from the rhetoric and agenda of Narendra Modi and Varun Gandhi. The BJP's only vision was that of the rearview mirror. As India changes, the Indian voter's profile changes. The BJP could neither embrace nor repudiate Varun Gandhi's virulent anti-Muslim rhetoric. It could not reach a broader constituency while appealing to militant Hinduism. On the other hand BJP would/will have lost its core Hindu base if it diluted its ideological purity. The tension will affect its search for fresh leaders. It was entrapped also in the disastrous strategy of trying to win an election on the basis of fear and divisiveness. Hope, generosity of spirit and optimism usually triumph over grievance and negativity.

The BJP’s impressive record of good governance in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as well as issues where it holds the whip-hand—such as strong national defence, and an economy speedily unshackled from the remnants of the licence-permit raj—were left adrift. A sustained campaign to pillory the nuclear deal in terms of the “Indian bomb in danger” would have left the Congress utterly on the defensive. The BJP, however, talked of “renegotiating” it, leaving the Congress to walk away with the game.

Taliban: Loosing its Social and Idealogical base

2009-06-13T05:34:00.001-07:00

In an earlier post http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/is-terror-political-problem.html, i had discussed terror and militancy being a social problem foremost. It is only when the conditions in the society favour radical thought do people and societies favour such radical and exteremist steps. Thus, weeding out terrorism involves striking at its social and idealogical roots to make an impact. It is a commonly accepted fact, that Taliban and Al Qaeda have recieved the patronage of the peoples of the frontier provinces in Pakistan and Afghanistan that has blunted the effects of the US, Pakistan and NATO forces. However, relentless fighting, harsh Sharia laws, belligerence and intransigence and relentless blood shed of the Taliban has started eating into its own social base amongst the people in FATA. Mathew Rosenburg and Zahid Hussain (Wall Street Journal) cover the tribes' dissent and anger with the Taliban.

PESHAWAR, Pakistan -- When the Taliban began filtering into Gul Khan Mehsud's town along the Afghan border nine years ago, residents offered food, shelter and ammunition.
"How could we turn them away? The Americans were killing them. We wanted them to fight," says the 38-year-old from South Waziristan, one of the tribal regions that border Afghanistan and arguably the Taliban's most important stronghold in Pakistan. "We thought the Taliban would help us."

People carry a man injured in a suicide bombing at a mosque Friday in the Upper Dir district, west of the Swat Valley in Pakistan. Military leaders in the country say they are hoping anger among residents at the Pakistan Taliban will help fuel an anti-militant campaign and a coming offensive.
Instead, Mr. Mehsud was forced from his home in South Waziristan earlier this year after the Pakistan Taliban, which grew out of the militants who fled the 2001 U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, accused one of his cousins of helping the U.S. plot missile strikes from drone aircraft.
Mr. Mehsud now lives with nearly two dozen relatives in two rooms in this city, the gateway to the tribal borderlands. "I didn't want to be shot," he says.
With Pakistan on the brink of taking its anti-militant campaign to the tribal areas on the restive border with Afghanistan, civilian and military leaders in Islamabad are banking on growing anger with the Pakistan Taliban among tribesmen such as Mr. Mehsud, whose Pashtun ethnic group straddles the frontier and lives in the core of the insurgency in both countries.
Popular support for the insurgents has undermined years of attempts to subdue the border areas, where the Taliban hold sway and al Qaeda operates openly. Residents who have fled report an intensifying reign of terror. The region is largely off limits to outsiders -- foreigners and Pakistanis alike -- and there are signs of growing disgust with the Taliban's hard-line tactics.
Pakistan's military hopes to channel that disenchantment behind its coming campaign in North and South Waziristan, which is likely to be grueling. An estimated 15,000 militants from the northwestern mountains of Pakistan and parts of eastern Afghanistan have massed in the area before an offensive expected to begin in the next month or two.
Anger at the Taliban in tribal areas mirrors a broader anti-Taliban sentiment across Pakistan that backed the military's recent offensive in the Swat Valley, a onetime vacation area overrun by the Taliban in the past two years.
The military launched its assault in Swat, which is roughly 100 miles from Islamabad, about a month ago after the Taliban violated a peace agreement that gave them control of the area.
Pakistan's top brass say the army has cleared militants from most of Swat, but there still are pockets of resistance in the valley and sporadic violence in areas around the region. On Friday, a suicide bomber killed at least 30 people attending afternoon prayers at a mosque in the Upper Dir district, a remote area to the west of Swat. According to Pakistani officials, there was no immediate claim of responsibility, but one local government official blamed the Taliban, saying it was likely in retaliation for the Swat offensive.

The tribal areas -- remote, mountainous and untamed by outside authority for centuries -- represent a far greater challenge. Pakistani intelligence officials say the top leaders of the Swat Taliban have retreated, along with hundreds of followers, to North and South Waziristan.
North and South Waziristan are part of the so-called Federally Administered Tribal Areas, a rugged region cut off physically and politically from the rest of the country. Unlike Pakistan's four main provinces, the region has historically been under only loose federal government control.
There still is broad popular support in the area for militants fighting U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces in Afghanistan. And the Pakistan Taliban hasn't lost its allure among the tens of thousands of people whose relatives were killed or homes were flattened in military attempts to reassert authority in the tribal areas.
"Each time there is badly aimed artillery firing or the Americans fire missiles, if one person is killed, all his brothers and sons and cousins join the Taliban," said Hazrat Muhammad, 36, who last year fled fighting in the Mohmand tribal area near South Waziristan.
Even among those, such as Mr. Muhammad, who say they now oppose the Taliban, there's deep distrust of the government, which has done little for the tribal areas since Pakistan was created six decades ago.
In social and economic indicators, the region trails the rest of Pakistan. Per-capita annual income is about $500 -- roughly half the national average -- and literacy hovers under 20%.
Rustam Shah Mohmand, a former official who served as top administrator for both Waziristans, said the people "don't want the Taliban. But they don't want the army. They want to go back to their old ways."
The old ways allowed Islamabad to govern through a network of moderate tribal elders, known as maliks. Pakistani law didn't apply to the tribal areas, and the army stayed out of the region.
The system, which originated more than a century ago when Britain ruled the subcontinent, was upended by the Taliban and al Qaeda after the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Hundreds of maliks were killed or forced to flee, and the few government officials in the region brought to heel.
The army sent in soldiers in 2003, but they did little to restore civilian authority. A new generation of Taliban warlords filled the vacuum, banding together in 2007 to form the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and fight Islamabad.
The group's most powerful commanders are based in the Waziristans. Among them: Baitullah Mehsud, the nominal leader of the Pakistan Taliban.
In one indication of the growing anger at the Pakistan Taliban, a rival from within Mr. Mehsud's tribe is gathering fighters to challenge the commander.
"The government is an enemy," said Gul Khan Mehsud. "First the Taliban must go. Then the army should go," he said. Asked who would then govern the tribal areas, he replied, "We can work that out ourselves."

BJP Imploding (Part I): The lack of a Coherent Vision

2009-06-13T02:35:00.001-07:00

Post Reference:
Bharat Karnad:professor at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi . http://www.livemint.com/2009/05/31212229/BJP-finding-the-right-centre.html
Ramesh Thakur: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Editorial/TOP-ARTICLE--Press-The-Reset-Button/articleshow/4600720.cms

Anti-incumbency, a nondescript track record in office and an insufficiently thought through nuclear deal should have drubbed the Congress in this general election. The botch-up by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ended up increasing Congress’s margin in Parliament. But a larger truth lurks behind the BJP’s failure, beyond supposed lapses in electoral strategy and a misreading of the public mood. It even surpasses the little noticed irony of the Congress party acquiring a youthful sheen only because the dynast Rahul Gandhi hand-picked young men and women as candidates, something which L.K. Advani—heading a less autocratically run outfit—could not do. Its failures include lack of vision, leadership and strategy.

No Ideological Core apart from Hindutva / Lack of a coherent vision

That truth relates to the BJP’s having no ideological core. There is space for a centre-right national party alongside the Congress on the centre-left, around which politics can be structured and coalition governments formed. Instead of basing itself on any progress and development led idealogical core, BJP went alongwith Hindutva and Congress bashing as its electoral idealogy. After BJPs losses in the 6 state assembly elections (including Delhi), it was expected that BJP would reconsider its electoral USP and communication strategy. However, BJP clung on to its Hindutva platform and demeaning the Congress (instead of exulting its own agenda or achievements).

BJP's challenge was to preserve Hindutva loyalty and yet reach out to a broader social coalition. For the aam aadmi, Jai Shri Ram is increasingly passe. The BJP had a choice: Cling to the past the glory that was India with a shrinking voter base or embrace a vision for the future the glory that awaits India which appeals to the growing voter cohorts of the young and urban.

The Congress at least offered the solace of rhetoric, regardless of whether the condition of the “aam aadmi” (ordinary citizen) is ever bettered by the party’s exertions in power. Election slogans encapsulate the promised thrust of government. It does not matter if the end state is never reached. Recall Indira Gandhi’s “Garibi hatao” (End poverty)? It did little for the poor but kept the Congress party in clover for nearly a generation. In this context, faced with the BJP’s campaign, the average voter would have concluded that it was disconnected from reality.

Social order and stability were the preconditions for the rights and freedoms enjoyed by the citizenry as well as for a free market. It is these principles that the BJP should associate with.

A better bureaucracy

2009-06-07T22:00:00.000-07:00

In a separate post,some time back (http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/01/thumbs-up-for-china-thumbs-down-for.html), i had discussed a point of view (widely accepted amongst Indian professionals), that while the growth of China is a result of their governance and bureaucratic efforts, Indian growth is more to do with the effort of individuals, businesses and entrepreneurs. A latest report ranks Indian Bureaucracy as being the worst in Asia. For long the accountability of the bureaucratic class has been a pain in India's governance.Reproducing an article by S. Narayan (former finance secretary and economic adviser to the primeminister) on the same issue.
http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/07212419/A-better-bureaucracy.html

With the reconstitution of the Planning Commission, the government has once again sent out signals that it means business. The new faces in the commission represent a class of people who have achieved considerable success in their own work environments, and who bring a passion to the roles they have been assigned. The President’s address to Parliament has underscored the determination to produce results, and there is evidence that ministries are being activated and some strategies worked out.
The air of expectation that things will happen this time is quite palpable, but one wonders what is different now. Improvements in levels of governance cannot come out of existing systems and deliveries, and yet there is little indication of how things will change. There have been no suggestions of reforms in processes and procedures: The reports of the Administrative Reforms Commission have offered little by way of solutions, and the major impediment to foreign direct investment (FDI) appears to be the excruciating pace at which the bureaucracy works.
Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, a Hong Kong-based organization, in its latest report has ranked India’s bureaucracy the worst in Asia, with a score of 9.45—zero being the best grade and 10 the worst. It is the only country whose ranking has worsened in the last three years. There are several reasons for this.
The first is ambiguity in policy. There are several examples. The foreign institutional investment (FII) policy, for example, allows free flow of funds without transparency of origin, for short-term investment into markets and market-related products, and has a low taxation burden in the form of capital gains tax. FDI has to bear the burden of full corporate taxation, as well as clearances from multiple agencies and continuous scrutiny. Poor mining policies and lack of consensus with states have stultified mineral exploitation, converting it into a resource available only to those with political access. However, most of these problems are in the realm of implementation issues, and can be addressed by ministers who are determined to get matters moving at their ministries.
The second is in the area of implementation strategies and monitoring. In the last five years, there have been several expert committees whose reports (nearly 70 in number) are available with the government, representing suggestions for implementation in areas as wide-ranging as agriculture and skill development: These only need effective implementation at the ministry level, this at the level of secretaries and joint secretaries. There has been almost no attempt to get these recommendations off the ground.
The third is the most difficult. This is in the area in which the public interfaces with the government, in the day-to-day business of life. In the area of sales tax and income tax, in paying bills and getting planning permissions, in running hospitals and schools, the functionaries of the government behave as though they are an Inquisition to extract the most from clients. This cutting edge bureaucracy, the reluctance at the lower levels of government to change, the lack of responsibility and accountability are all states of governance that we have wished upon ourselves.
Part of the problem is probably the scales of pay, but this has been substantially taken care of after the Sixth Pay Commission. More importantly, it has to do with how government servants perceive themselves and how society perceives them. They are part of the elite; and part of the way they display their importance is by being difficult to work with—whether in matters requiring their approval or when dealing with the people they meet. One reason could be the lack of checks and balances—as was demonstrated last week by the inspection of the Sushruta Trauma Centre in Delhi by the health secretary. But this is not all. The real problem arises from the hierarchical nature of decision-taking and the intense fear of taking the wrong decision, resulting in the tendency to pass the buck upwards. From the civil servant’s perspective, it is ideal to hide a decision behind a committee. In India, over the years this has gotten worse—decisions we used to take at the level of joint secretaries now require cabinet approval, that too after a formal recommendation by the committee of secretaries.
The Right to Information (RTI) Act and public interest litigation (PIL) have no doubt contributed to transparency in decisions, but they have also increased the reluctance to take decisions at lower levels. The answer is “no” unless there is no way of avoiding a “yes”—and corruption flourishes in such an atmosphere.
There are no easy solutions here. One way is to distance people from the bureaucracy through technology—payment of bills, tickets for travel, and applications for jobs and admissions can now be done without face-to-face contact. There should be an attempt to enhance these services. However, at the level of approvals for economic activity, improvements can only happen if those at the top are more vigilant—through better supervision and checks and, most importantly, speedy deterrents.
We need to change the way government transacts its business.

Why the Taliban’s going to win in Pakistan

2009-05-22T23:38:00.000-07:00

Reproducing Aakar Patel's commentary on Sharia and Islam being the cornerstone, which will lead Taliban's Societal onquest of Pakistan, even if it is beaten Militarilly.
http://www.livemint.com/2009/05/21211703/Why-the-Taliban8217s-going.html

The Taliban cannot defeat Pakistan militarily. The Taliban will win because what they want is already being implemented by Pakistan

The Taliban will win in Pakistan. They are on the right side of the law. They are also on the right side of history. Last month, a video of Talibs whipping a 17-year-old girl for adultery upset Pakistanis, who thought it barbaric. It might be, but it is the law. The punishment for married adulterers in Pakistan is to “be stoned to death at a public place” (Ordinance 7 of 1979). Unmarried adulterers are to be “punished, at a public place; with whipping numbering one hundred stripes”.

Later in April, the world worried over Pakistan’s decision to enforce Shariah law in the district of Swat, being held by the Taliban. But Shariah is already in force in the whole of Pakistan; it is only being implemented selectively. What the Taliban are demanding is enforcement. Pakistanis might fear the Taliban but nobody opposes Islamic law. Speaking against the “ideology of Pakistan” means 10 years in jail (Penal Code 123a).
In Pakistan, defiling the Quran means life in prison. Speaking against the Prophet is an automatic death sentence (Penal Code 295c).
Under laws that president Zia-ul-Haq introduced, the maximum punishment for theft is amputation of hands. Muslims caught drinking face 80 lashes.
Under prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, founder of the liberal Pakistan People’s Party, parliament apostatized the entire Ahmedi sect, a group of Punjabi Muslims.
An Ahmedi “is not a Muslim for the purposes of the constitution or law” (Second Amendment, 1974). If Ahmedis refer to themselves as “Muslim”, or their prayer house as “masjid”, or recite the azaan (call for prayer), they shall be imprisoned for three years (Pakistan Penal Code 298B, 298C).
What happens to Pakistan’s liberal politicians when these laws are passed?
They have to disappear.
Also Read Aakar’s previous Lounge columns
Bhutto’s finance minister was the socialist, Mubashir Hasan. Every year, he leads the candle vigil at Wagah. His book, The Mirage of Power, is a detailed account of his four years as minister but makes no mention of the apostatization of the Ahmedis. He skips over the episode. Why? He is afraid to communicate his opposition because he might be lynched.
It is difficult to be secular in Pakistan. The man whose party surrendered at Swat was Asfandyar Wali, grandson of Abdul Ghaffar Khan, the Frontier Gandhi.
The Taliban cannot defeat Pakistan militarily. The Pakistan army will rout it because the Talibs have neither armour, nor artillery nor aircraft.
The Taliban will win because what they want is already being implemented by Pakistan.

On 23 December 1999, Pakistan’s supreme court banned the charging of interest on loans, deciding it was not Islamic. Effectively, this would shut down the banking system and switch off the economy. Pervez Musharraf, then president, got the court to appoint a committee to decide how to implement this ban. This has delayed the destruction of Pakistan’s economy, but not avoided it. In 1998, prime minister Nawaz Sharif moved the 15th Amendment to enforce Shariah. This would designate him Amir-ul-Momineen, commander of the faithful, like Mullah Omar. The Bill was passed by the lower house before being blocked in the senate by the small party of Bihari-UP migrants from India, the Muhajirs.
Urdu-speaking Muhajirs form the only secular party in Pakistan. Their base is Karachi, where they are up against four million Pashtun immigrants. Who are the Talibs? Ethnically, they are Pashtun, 15% of Pakistan’s population.
Many were students of a curriculum designed at Deoband, a school in Uttar Pradesh’s Saharanpur district. It was set up after the war of 1857, seen as the end of Muslim rule in India. Its purpose was to revive Islam by ridding it of the corruption of Hindu influence. It recognizes the jurist Abu Hanifa (who died in 765). The Jaish-e-Mohammad follows the Deobandi ideology.
Pakistan was founded by a man who didn’t really understand Islam. Mohammed Ali Jinnah was a South Mumbai Gujarati who spoke no Urdu or Arabic. He was a constitutionalist who did not understand the nature of the state he had founded. He was a Shia of the Sevener Ismaili Khoja sect. They are talented businessmen and good citizens, but Sunnis regard them as heretics. To widen his appeal, Jinnah converted to “regular” Twelver Shiism.
But that wasn’t good enough.
When he died in 1948, a year after Partition, his deputy, Liaquat Ali Khan, had him buried as a Sunni with a Deobandi maulvi leading his funeral prayer. Six months after Jinnah’s death, on 12 March 1949, Khan introduced the Objectives Resolution in the Pakistan assembly, which was legislating the new constitution. Pakistanis, Khan declared, would enjoy democracy, freedom and equality “as enunciated by Islam”. These words alarmed the assembly’s Hindu members, all Bengalis from East Pakistan. They said this was not what Jinnah had promised them. But Jinnah had been vague. And the Muslims in the assembly were able to point to instances where Jinnah had spoken clearly of Shariah law. The committee voted 21:10. All Muslims voting for; all Hindus against.
Khan assured the Hindus that they would not be discriminated against. He was assassinated in 1951. The discrimination would be written in later, incrementally and over time.
By law, only a Muslim may now be Pakistan’s president (Article 41-2) or prime minister (Article 91-4). Not that there are many non-Muslims left.
Pakistan is today 96% Muslim and unable to think on secular lines. Why are Pakistanis doing this to themselves?
B.R. Ambedkar speculated about this in 1946. “The Muslims have no interest in politics as such. Their predominant interest is religion” (Pakistan: The Partition of India, pages 232-233). All that the Muslim voter cared about, he wrote, was that the candidate “replace the lamps... (and) provide a new carpet for the masjid”. He added: “None of the secular categories of life have any place in the politics of (the) Muslim community and if they do find a place—and they must because they are irrepressible—they are subordinated to one and only one governing principle of the Muslim political universe, namely, religion.” Months later, Ambedkar began work on India’s secular constitution, which took force on 26 January 1950.

Till last year, Nepal was the only Hindu state on earth. The Chhetri (Kshatriya) dynasty ended with the republic of 2008.
Why was it a Hindu state? Because executive power flowed from a warrior king, as prescribed in the Hindu code, Manusmriti. But Nepal was Hindu only to that extent. Nothing else from Hindu texts could be applied because most of it is against the Universal Declaration Of Human Rights, just like Shariah is.
The religious state is utopian, and demands perfection. If we obey God fully, He will look after us. This is not the view of just the bearded Talib of Swat: the justices of the supreme court of Pakistan expect that blessings will be showered on their country after they skewer its economy.
Pakistan is in religious ecstasy. Like Iran, it will have to go through the process of full Islamization.
After this it will learn that there is no other way to run a modern state than as a secular democracy.

Jai Ho: The Indian voter comes of age

2009-05-17T21:53:00.000-07:00

General Elections ’09: A mandate that proves the Indian electorate is maturing beyond the dimly defined lines of caste , region and vote bank politics. I never thought that the mandate would be this consistent in backing the efforts of any single national party blurring the divisive politics plaguing the country’s political firmament. It did not matter whether UPA won or NDA won, as long as they won decisively and comprehensively keeping the petty small regional interests at bay. That is exactly what the Indian voter opted for. In essence, the Indian voter, have given a clear message to the political parties: Stability, growth and consistency against personal ambition, greed, opportunism, divisionary tactics and regionalism.

A overwhelming positives according to me:

1. A clean “stability” mandate so that UPA can pursue its agenda of economic growth to the full instead of trying to get the diverse interests in the coalition to agree on what is to be agreed.

2. The emergence of younger leaders playing such a key role in shaping the political fortunes of the country. Prominent amongst this is the rise of Rahul Gandhi who looks to be a destined to lead India in the very near future.

3. The snubbing of BJP and NDA’s will cause it to re-access its Hindutva platform in favour of growth centric positioning. It was important for BJP to understand that its platform has outlived its use in favour of developmental agenda.

4. Keeping the Mulayams, Mayawatis, Karats, Yechurys, Amar Singhs, Jayalalithas, Laloos and Karunanidhis will increase the stability and consistency of the government. Somewhere the Indian voter is beginning to realize the importance of keeping parties with limited perspective away from the central podiums.

5. The left is “left” out effectively. Not only on a national level, but the “red” bastions such as West Bengal and Kerala give it a snub. Again the point of progressive economic development has been re-instated by these states which for long have been fettered by the Left myopic view of development and growth.

Overwhelmingly, it is a Jai Ho for the coming of age of the Indian Voter who now sees himself positioned against the best and biggest in the world and wants to break free of the petty squabbling of vote politics.

Man Slaughter:The Tamilians in Sri Lanka

2009-05-11T00:12:00.000-07:00

The world watches as Sri Lanka burns and Tamilians and slaughtered. Refer to my earlier post on the same
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/04/sri-lankas-silent-horror.html

The seeming inability of international mediators, forums and organizations to control the civilian deaths, damages and genocides is frustrating and painful. For long Sri Lanka has been a battleground and the casualties keep rising. However, there is little and no effort to stem the bloodbath in the island nation. There have been sporadic statements issued by a few Indian Politicians on the war and there is nothingness beyond the empty rhetoric. The action of the armyu and the rebels reek of "Wanton disregard for Human Life", as put by aid agencies. 380 civilians died and more than 1,100 wounded on Sunday during intensive shelling of the combat zone on Sri Lanka’s northeastern coast, a boggy sliver of beachfront where Sri Lankan troops have surrounded Tamil separatist fighters.

“The U.N. has consistently warned against the bloodbath scenario as we’ve watched the steady increase in civilian deaths over the last few months,” Gordon Weiss, the U.N. spokesman in Sri Lanka, said Monday. “The large-scale killing of civilians over the weekend, including the deaths of more than 100 children, shows that that bloodbath has become a reality.”

Concern for civilians trapped in the zone has grown in recent weeks. The area of fighting, which at one time had been set aside by the government as a “no-fire zone,” has shrunk to about 7 square kilometers, or about 2.5 square miles. An estimated 50,000 civilians, mostly Tamils, are thought to be caught there, along with a holdout force of between 200 and 500 fighters.

Some relief groups and the government have assailed the rebels for holding the civilians as human shields. Many of the same agencies and some foreign governments have accused the government of shelling the area — along with the civilians inside — despite pledges to no longer use heavy weapons, artillery or air strikes.

Food, water and shelter are in short supply inside the battle zone, according to accounts from some of those who have escaped the fighting there. An official with a Catholic relief group said Monday that only one field hospital remains in operation, with doctors and medical staff fearful of leaving the bunkers where they live because of periodic shelling by the army. The rebels claim that the army has annihilated 3200 civilians while some relief groups and the government have assailed the rebels for holding the civilians as human shields. Many of the same agencies and some foreign governments have accused the government of shelling the area — along with the civilians inside — despite pledges to no longer use heavy weapons, artillery or air strikes.

Amnesty Internation, Human Rights watch,the International Crisis Group and the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect have pleaded Japan to intervene and raise the Sri Lanka crisis at the Security Council.

The government, in a statement by the Defense Ministry, said Monday that the rebels were “bombarding their own civilians.”“Hopefully, in their calculation, this will attract the foreign countries to throw a lifeline to save their souls,” the statement said. “L.T.T.E. is desperate with the security forces closing on them. Lives of the L.T.T.E. leadership are hanging on a thread. They know they are running out of time.”Independent verification of various charges by the government and the rebels has been impossible because the military has banned journalists from the area around the war zone and from refugee camps.

Climatic Changes: A rude awakening (Part III)

2009-05-02T02:11:00.000-07:00

Dissapearing mangroves and coastlines

The first mention of climate refugees have started circulating. This was given off by the foreign minister of Bangladesh, Dipu Moni at Tromsoe, North Norway at the Meltic Ice and Arctic Counsell conference. Because of its geographical location and the fact that it is mostly a low lying delta, Bangladesh risks devastating impacts from the rising sea levels caused by climate change. Already Bangaldesh accounts for 60% of the 250,000 deaths worldwide on account of cyclones. (as per 1980 - 2000 statistics). Moni urged rich nations to help the densely populated country of 150 million people, possibly by opening their borders to international environment/climate refugees! U.N. Climate Panel projected in 2007 world sea levels would rise by between 18 and 59 cms (7-23 inches) this century and listed Bangladesh among the most vulnerable countries to climate changes. Millions of Bangladeshis reside less than a metre above sea level making them susceptible to rise sea water levels.Rising seas and storms would bring more salinity to farmland, affecting crops and changing the types of fish able to survive, thereby multiplying the crisis.

In another independent study, it has been found that the living along Maharashtra coastline are being threatened and fast disappearing due to various human activities including government activities. Jat Sangli (Botanist) and Current Science (Journal) are putting together a plan conserve some of the endangered and critically endangered species of mangroves along the Maharashtra coastline as they are the shoreline protectors and habitat for a variety of animals. Maharashtra is one of the important states of India with unique mangrove diversity along its 720 kilometers coastline, distributed in about 55 estuaries in five districts. There are about 24 typical mangroves along with ten halophytes, 12 borderline species and 15 associates in Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts alone and the rest of the districts show more or less similar composition. Lack of awareness in locals about how to maintain the eco-system and the mangroves is seen as the first obstacle and for start, the beginning is in education of the locals on issues such as eco disasters associated with loss of mangroves on the coastal belts.

Read more about Mangrove conservation here

Climatic Changes: A rude awakening (Part II)

2009-04-30T20:31:00.001-07:00

The retreat of the glaciers!

The 2004, Dennis Quaid movie Day after Tomorrow starts with an opening sequence where a whole Antarctic Ice Shelf breaks into two. It is an scene which inspires awe (as much as the movie does). The problem is that within 4 years of a fictional rendition, we are beginning to see the real time breaking of the ice shelfs. An area of an Antarctic ice shelf almost the size of New York City has broken into icebergs this month after the collapse of an ice bridge. This is blamed on the glabal warming phenomenon.The northern ice front of the Wilkins Ice Shelf has become unstable and the first icebergs have been released.700 sq km (270.3 sq mile) of ice -- bigger than Singapore or Bahrain and almost the size of New York City -- has broken off the Wilkins this month and shattered into a mass of icebergs. Wilkins could lose a total of 800 to 3,000 sq kms of area after the ice bridge shattered. The Wilkins shelf has already shrunk by about a third from its original 16,000 sq kms when first spotted decades ago, its ice so thick would take at least hundreds of years to form.

Nine other shelves -- ice floating on the sea and linked to the coast -- have receded or collapsed around the Antarctic peninsula in the past 50 years, often abruptly like the Larsen A in 1995 or the Larsen B in 2002. The trend is widely blamed on climate change caused by heat-trapping gases from burning fossil fuels.Temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have warmed by up to 3 Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) this century, Vaughan said, a trend climate scientists blame on global warming from burning fossil fuels in cars, factories and power plants.

While Ice sheets donot add to the level of sea water because the are mostly submerged and would release an equal volume as much they are submerged in, there is a grave risk that the retreat of ice sheets would accelerate Global warming which in return would melt the land based ice glaciers, not only increasing the sea water level but also making the availability of fresh water resources on earth scarce.

For a detailed report:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Health--Science/Earth/Global-Warming/ESA-satellite-images-show-ice-shelf-breaking-away-/articleshow/4464729.cms

Climatic Changes: A rude awakening (Part I)

2009-04-30T19:38:00.001-07:00

The Death of Life Giving Rivers

A series of 5 articles published on the Times of India, 30th April 2009, was my rude awakening of how the environment against us dies, subject to the insensitive activities of human kind. These articles speak about silent changes in the environment, and yet these changes will at some point of time dramatically impact our lives, probably alter them forever.

Availability of fresh water from perenial rivers such as Ganga, Yellow and Niger has been severely compromised owing to the change in climatic patterns. Climatic changes and Global warming are impacting the water cycle in two opposite manners:
1. Increasing the glacial melts in the Polar regions thereby increasing the water level of the seas. This is expected to denude coastal areas of India and Bangladesh, not to mention New York City, San Francisco and London.
2. Global warming is also impacting the rainfall pattern and increasing the rate of evaporation thereby changing the flow leading to floods or longer dry spells impacting inhabitants, mostly in developing countries.
3. The state of the world's rivers and threat to freshwater are not entirely on account of climate change. Water pollution is another matter of grave concern. Effluents, garbage, sewage and other liquid and solid wastes that are deliberately pumped into rivers have been turning waters toxic as well as killing off aquatic life.
Thousands of litres of oil was spill into the Sutlej due to a industrial accident some time back. Besides polluting the river and cutting off oxygen suppkly to the river eco-system, the spill has compromised the Ropar wetlands, home to migratory birds.
4. And if all this is not enough, there are cases where the rivers are being killed off for supposedly "developmental" activities as is happening in Delhi where the Yamuna suffers because of the fact that our competent administration and authorities have not been able to handle the Common Wealth games preparations well. Read Post

How can we help? Increase awareness, be actively involved in saving this heritage, make your small attempts to make a large difference. I for once am joining the Jal Biradari in Delhi to save the Yamuna!

The Countdown to the end of Pakistan

2009-04-19T22:37:00.000-07:00

7 months after my first story on Pakistan (2nd October 2008) and 13 posts later, its time for the final countdown to begin on curtains to the nation state of Pakistan. At the outer limit, experts give Pakistan 6 months before it calls in international troops to help control the fundamentalist Taliban from running over the state.

To quote David Kilcullen, adviser to David Petraeus, commander of the US Central Command (that oversees operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan):
Pakistan is today a nation without a political gyroscope. Its political leadership is at war with itself and its army thinks India is top enemy while the Taliban steadily inch towards territorial control. In fact, its army elite are inclined in favour of the Taliban. When the radicals do take over the reins in Islamabad, it would be a unique example of a nation handing over the levers of state power to non-state actors.

The spectre is fearsome for India and the international community with around 100 nuclear war-heads within reach of the Taliban forces. Taliban have violated peace agreements with the Islamabad governments at will and have extended their run from FATA to Swat and Burner, which is 100 miles away from Islamabad. There is no doubt that Taliban advances are focussed on running over the whole state of Pakistan. Only if you are an individual called Asif Ali Zardari (AAZ) would you be hallucinating “all’s well in Pakistan”.
On one end, AAZ is talking about military and economic aid to the tune of $30 billion to finance his “efforts” against “war on terror”. On the other, AAZ effectively ratified the government's deal with the Taliban Monday by signing a bill that imposes Islamic law in Swat on 13th April 2009. Pakistani officials have touted the deal, reached in February, as a way to restore peaceful order in the bloodied region -- which lies just a few hours' drive from the capital -- and halt the Taliban's advance. Striking peace deals with some Taliban factions is part of Pakistan's broader strategy to counter the militants. The government's logic is that such accords can exploit the groups' fractious nature; one enemy can be neutralized with a peace deal while another is defeated on the battlefield. The deals also have been struck when the army has struggled to overcome militants. In Swat, about 3,000 militants pushed four times as many soldiers out of the valley in 18 months of fighting, leaving some 1,500 people dead.Nearly all the peace accords reached in the past few years in areas near the Afghan border, where the Taliban are strongest, have collapsed. Often they have left the militants more powerful. A similar deal in Swat fell apart last year after the Taliban renewed attacks on Pakistani forces.

The deal was counter productive if anything and served in strengthening the militant’s base for war in Swat Valley. The number of militants in the valley swelled to double the number at the end of last year. The Taliban's actions since the new peace deal was unveiled have alarmed Washington, where officials fear that Swat will become an effective launching pad for expansion into Pakistan's more densely populated plains. "This is a rest stop for the Taliban, it's nothing more," said a U.S. official in Washington.

On the ideological plane, the idea of Pakistan has ceased to be meaningful; it is a failed state led by reckless elite who could not care less. The fate is sealed more or less and the way it looks from here is that Taliban would run over the plains of Pakistan and establish a parallel government in the country-sides while the federal government would be confined to cities. Suicide attacks, terror training camps and bombings would increase as militants would find their first legitimate lands where Sharia laws would be imposed. A US-International attempt at purging Pakistan would result in a bloody civil war. The ISI- Pakistan Army loyalties would be tested and eventually Pakistan would emerge as a war devastated economy which for other political reasons would have to be split into three countries. The first would be the confederation of states NWFP, FATA and parts of Balochistan. In spirit, this would be exactly like Afghanistan and would continue to be the hot bed of terrorism. The other two states would be Punjab and Sindh. As far as AAZ is concerned, I see him to be a victim of an assassination much like his late wife. History would forget and forgive him for failing his opportunity as the last president of Pkaistan who could have altered the fate of the country.

'Pakistan in danger of fracturing into Islamist fiefdom'

2009-04-17T04:56:00.000-07:00

Reprint from Times of India's article by the same name.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/Pakistan-in-danger-of-fracturing-into-Islamist-fiefdom/articleshow/4412829.cms

With extremist elements gaining ground every passing day, Pakistan is in an imminent danger of disintegrating into a fiefdom controlled by Islamist warlords, having "disastrous" implications, a media report has said.

"It's a disaster in the making on the scale of the Iranian revolution," an unnamed intelligence official with long experience in Pakistan was quoted as saying by the McClatchy newspaper.

There is little hope to prevent nuclear-armed Pakistan from disintegrating into a fiefdom controlled by Islamist warlords and terrorists, who would then pose a far greater threat to the US than those in Afghanistan, intelligence officials keeping a close watch on the situation in the region told the paper.

They said Pakistan's government is in the danger of being overrun by Islamic militants and the development of such a situation could be dangerous not only for the US but also for the entire region.

"Pakistan has 173 million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than American army, and the headquarters of al-Qaida sitting in two-thirds of the country which the government does not control," David Kilcullen, a counterinsurgency consultant to the Obama administration was quoted as saying.

"The implications of this are disastrous for the US," he said. Unlike Afghanistan, which is a backward, isolated, landlocked place, officials said Pakistan is a developed state with a major Indian Ocean port and ties to the outside world, especially the Persian Gulf that Afghanistan and the Taliban never had.

Another Pentagon advisor told McClatchy that Pakistan's government in the next 10 years would be overrun by Islamic militants.

"The place is beyond redemption," he was quoted as saying. "I don't see any plausible scenario under which the present government or its most likely successor will mobilize the economic, political and security resources to push back this rising tide of violence," the advisor said.

"I think Pakistan is moving towards a situation where the extremists control virtually all of the countryside and the government controls only the urban centers," he said.

The report said such a pessimistic view of Pakistan's future has been bolstered by Islamabad's surrender this week of areas outside the frontier tribal region to Pakistan's Taliban movement for the first time.

Growing militant infiltration of Karachi, the nation's financial centre and the industrial and political heartland province of Punjab, in part to evade US drone strikes in the tribal belt, also strengthens the view, it said.

Zardari's begging bowl

2009-04-17T04:02:00.000-07:00

In over 11 previous posts, I have written on the central issue plaguing Pakistan- An inept and corrupt leadership (sans influence and control) playing puppet to army/ISI powers playing puppet to a larger and high orthodox Islamic order (Taliban being one of the faces of this front). It is indeed a shame that the world watches as Pakistan deteriorates into an Islamic Anarchy. The human, economic, trade and infrastructure indexes in the Pakistan are retrogressing to put it mildly. For a long tiem now, it has been running on IMF and American aid. However the spends have not shown any "developmental" returns.

While Zardari goes about begging for aid from the developed economies, there is little he can show as real time development during his 1.5 year tenure. Forget the state, a justice for his wife's assassination is pending. Zardari has proven to be a very weak and vacillating leader of a country, which at this time needs a visionary, dare- all statesman leader more than anything. The greatest acheivements that Zardari can talk about is his tenure as far as Pakistan is concerned is the success of his aid accumulation efforts. US has aided him, so has the IMF, so has China and now Japan. $1 billion aid to Pakistan has been promised by Japan and US to support economic reforms and developmental assistance.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/US-Japan-pledge-1bn-each-to-Pak/articleshow/4412576.cms
Furthermore, Zaradari has set claims to such aids as a measure (pay back) for Pakistan aiding the "war against terror" on its soil. According to Zardari "If we win, you win. If we loose, you loose" can be construed as a thinly veiled persuation tactic.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/Zardari-seeks-aid-like-Marshall-Plan/articleshow/4412121.cms
On a subject such as winning and loosing, Zardari prefers silence on why he would agree to sharia laws and let Taliban "rule" a part of the Pakistani territory. It only proves a complete breakdown of the security systems in Pakistan and the helplessness of Islamabad in managing this muck that they have gotten themselves in.

As if a $7.5 billion civilian aid and $3 billion military assistance is not enough, Pakistan’s envoy to the US Husain Haqqani has sought $30 billion under Marshall Plan to fight Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.$30 billion is far less than the current stimulus packages being doled out to banks and other US companies. “Despite the economic issues that the world is facing, the cost of a Marshall Plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan is going to be minuscule (compared) to the bailouts being given to American car companies and AIG (American International Group),” Haqqani was quoted.Kerry-Lugar bill has proposed tripling of the non-civilian aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion a year, he said Pakistan needs $5 billion a year for the next five years from the US and its allies to build local law enforcement of about 100,000 men, strengthen counterinsurgency against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and persuade average citizen that the US-led war on extremism is Pakistan’s war and essential for the country’s survival.

It is baffling as to how such huge aid moneys are routinely routed to Pakistan, even while western states express shock, anger, grief and admonishment at Islamabad's mis-governance.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6898150&page=1. As of 8th April 2009, Taliban broke the "peace deal" between themselves and the government that was drawn in March, 2009. As of 10th April, Taliban fighters were barely 60 miles (97km) north-west of Islamabad.
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20090090259
http://www.zeenews.com/South-Asia/2009-04-09/522070news.html
http://www.livemint.com/2009/04/10000833/Time-distance-and-Taliban.html

It is time for the international forum to see beyond Islamabad's diversionary tactics and be satisfied with the aid lumpsums that they deliver to Islamabad. There is a real problem out there and it is for the average Pakistani citizen that the international community now needs to react and call for a broader military action in Pakistan. Else the whole country is in a real danger of descending into lawless fiefdoms, much the same as Afghanistan fate.

Profiling our Lok Sabha Candidates for Phase 1 General Elections

2009-04-16T01:35:00.001-07:00

The first phase of polling is underway as i pen this blog. A quick update on the candidates and their profiles as researched and published by http://www.adrindia.org/home/index.asp, www.nationalelectionwatch.org:

1. Total no. of Candidates with Criminal Records = 222 (i.e. 16% of 1425 candidates)

2. Most of the major political parties have fielded candidates with criminal records, with top four parties being INC (24), BJP(23), BSP(17) and SP(10)

3. Most states have candidates with criminal background contesting elections- Bihar is at the top with 51 candidates (or 26%)

4. There are 306 charges of heinous nature on the candidates which includes, murder, attempt to murder, kidnapping, extortion, etc.

5. 193 crorepatis are contesting the phase 1 Lok Sabha elections. Congress has the maximum number of crorepatis (45), followed by BJP (30) and BSP (22).Percentage of contesting crorepatis has increased from 9% in 2004 to 14% in 2009

6. 68% candidates have not furnished their PAN card details.

7. Number of women candidates is just 122(7%) as compared to 1593 of men(93%).

8. Amongst the major parties, the average asset per candidate for INC is Rs.4.3 Crore, BJP is 2 crores and NCP is 1.06 crores.

9. Only 60% of the contesting candidates have a Graduate + level of education.

I have a very prejudiced view of the treatment to be metted out to these candidates: Shoes instead of Votes

Sri Lanka's silent horror

2009-04-07T23:18:00.001-07:00

For as long as i can remember, Sri Lanka has been in war with itself. My first recollections of Sri Lanka's Tamil crisis is the decision of sending the Indian peace keeping force to Sri Lanka in 1987-88 by Rajiv Gandhi. The IPKF was thoroughly unsuccessfull in doing much in Sri Lanka and Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated in 1991. For long the Sinhala - Tamil crisis has been raging in Sri Lanka and there has been no effort by the successive democratic governments and international community to address the issue in an amicable manner. The troubles date back to political and social attempts of the Sinhala dominated administration to isolate the Tamil community and subjugate them. The deeply ingrained racist prejudice had resulted in marginalization and alienation of Tamilians, social ostracism, economic blockades, pogroms and torture. Now it morphes into the worst yet: Genocide, the mass killing of innocent unarmed civilians.

In the fresh round of offensive launched on the Tamil dominated north areas, the Sri Lankan army has systematically decimated the LTTE strong hold. However, what lies beneath is a more sinister Human tragedy unfolding. Tamilians are being subjected to genocide in Sri Lanka and the world is unaware of it. There has been a silence on the issue and it has not hit the media but then, word goes that there is no Free Media in Sri Lanka. While there have been voices from around the world, the spot light on the issue was generated by Arundhati Roy in her article, "The silent horror of the war in Sri Lanka", which was published by Times of India, Guardian and many other news houses around the world.

There is a studied silence around the horrors perpetrated by the Sinhaleese army on the Tamil population. Sri Lankan army's war on terror has turned from its anti LTTE offensive to a well orchestrated conspiracy to wipe out the island's 350000 Tamilians. The Tamilians are being subjected to unspeakable crimes and the army rationale driving this is that every Tamilian is a terrorist unless proven otherwise. Earlier, this year, when its offensive on LTTE was abating, Tamilians in the north were deported to Welfare Villages/Safety Zones (thinly veiled concentration camps) while the countryside, villages and Tamilian homes were razed to ground by the army and airforce offensive. Civilian areas, hospitals, shelters have been bombed for being friendly towards the "Tigers".This brazen racist war has already claimed several thousand lives and more face starvation, mal-nutrition and death at the welfare villages. A humanitarian tragedy of gigantic proportions in unfolding here and now. Dissenting voices are being quickly stiubbed out by abduction and assassinations. Death Squads and White Van abductions terrorize the innocent Tamilian population.

India is silent and according to Arundhaati an accomplice! The UN and other international forums are willing to overlook this crisis. It is for the 350000 tamilians out there, India and other nations need to step in before it is too late.

Revisiting the criminalization of politics (Part II)

2009-03-25T04:45:00.000-07:00

An update on Bastardization of the public office and criminalization of Indian Politics. Read earlier updates on general elections and the political tactics around the same:
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/criminalization-of-politics-revisiting.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/general-elections-great-indian-tamasha.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/elections-and-populist-gravy-train.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/urban-rural-divide-and-electoral-anti.html

I had in an earlier post covered the fact that despite pressure from the media and citizenry, political parties have gone out and fielded candidates with criminal and other dubious backgrounds. This is an extension of the first two blogs on the same topic http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/general-elections-great-indian-tamasha.html, http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/criminalization-of-politics-revisiting.html. The practise of fielding candidates tainted with a criminal record continues unabated. The following is the list released by National Election Watch, an initiative by Association of Democratic Reforms, a NGO from Ahmedabad.

Of 730 candidates declared by INC, BJP, SP, BSP, CPI and CPM for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, 278 candidates had filled their affidavits for the 2004 election and out of the 278, 63 have criminal records aganist them. 39 of them have serious charges like Murder, Robbery, ATtempt to Robbery, Theft and Kidnapping against them. The candidates with serious charges against them include 14 from BJP, 13 from BSP, 5 each from INC and SP and 2 from CPI(M).

Reference: http://www.adrindia.org/home/index.asp

Join http://groups.google.com/group/national-election-watch?hl=en to support the movement and spread the message around.

Delhi: The ecological disaster to be.

2009-03-25T00:26:00.001-07:00

Visits to many European countries and their capitals sometimes mandatorily include a walk down the river side or lake shores. The river/lake ecosystem is carefully maintained and managed not only from an ecological point of view but also from a tourism point of view. The same cannot be said of Delhi and Yamuna. Crossing the Yamuna over to East Delhi, means a foul nauseating stench along with a sorry side of a dying river system. The growth, population and administration failures have killed a once flourishing eco system.

And if that was not enough, the Common Wealth Games 2010 will ensure that the final nail on the Yamuna coffin is pressed down in a haste. There is a hyperactivity along the floodplains of Yamuna as shopping malls, residential and commercial complexes and now a 47.3 hectare $40 million CWG village do quick and irreversible damage to the fertile alluvial plains of Yamuna.

In as far as CWG is concerned, the inability of the government to plan and execute the games infrastructure on time, has induced a knee jerk reaction. The quickest and easiest development alternatives are being invested upon largely ignoring and discounting the long term economic and environmental perils of the actions. The 10 day CWG will showcase the strides that India has made in the recent times and will spawn a wanton destruction of the environment.

Yamuna is already one of the most polluted rivers in the world and the Delhi stretch is particularly a disaster for the river eco-system. The Governments, ministries and departments have "action plans" to their credit. The first one being a Rs.10000 crore farce which did little and achieved a zilch. A second (better and bigger) plan is on the anvil. This one is for Rs.20000 crores and there is little or no doubt to the discerning thought that this money will serve more to increasing bank balances of the influential and responsible members of the system than doing anything on Yamuna.

Also, the unrestricted growth of the city has pressured the river system and attempts to clean it have been hampered by high population density of the city, unplanned city development, dumping of sewage and solid waste into the river, inadequate government monitoring and mismanagement of projects (like the Rs.10000 crore Yamuna Action Plan Fiasco). Delhi pumps out 3296 million litres of sewage to Yamuna per day. The systematic encroachments (by housing and comercial complexes) and building of walls and bunds on the flood plains have led to drying up of lakes and ponds in East Delhi. The Ground water levels are falling by 1 to 3 metres per year in many parts of Delhi. This large scale devastation of the Yamuna river system will impact water security of Delhi in Long term and will alter the character of the river.

Amidst all this, a glimmer of hope have been efforts of the Jal Biradari (National Water Brotherhood), who are raising a grass roots campaign which involves people in terms of creating awareness, educating masses to stop polluting the river, stopping encroachments, rainwater harvesting, better management of water resources and raising the citizen activism bit around the Yamuna issue. However, unlike the political awakening that followed 26/11 Mumbai, a trigger is what may be required to get the threshold citizen activism on the same.

Source Sites:

http://www.tarunbharatsangh.org/yamuna/jal_satyagraha.htm

http://www.tarunbharatsangh.org/yamuna/index.htm

http://www.indiaedunews.net/In-focus/September_2007/Yamuna_river_finds_new_saviour_-_tech_savvy_youth_2061/print.asp

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=096eb8c8-dbc6-414d-bfb6-4df32a0d2d97&&Headline=EMSatyagraha+%2fEMto+save+Yamuna+riverbed

http://www.toxicslink.org/nalert-view.php?id=179

The virtues of new found citizen activism

2009-03-18T03:08:00.001-07:00

In many earlier posts, i have mentioned this new movement in the educated citizenry across the country, which i choose to call Citizen Activism. It is not a new phenomenon and has been around for a while. Hindi movies have churned scores and hundreds of movies based on citizen activism essentailly, the efforts of one man/group of people to awaken a nation. The movie that immediately comes to my mind is Rang De Basanti. Not that Media and new reporters and columnists have never been a part of "awakening". In their distinct capacities all these agents of change have justified their role in a citizen awakening. It could be against injustice, corruption, reservations, red tapism, Goonda-ism, economic in-equality, so on and so forth... individuals in their might and right have taken a stand at times for the greater good of their communities, their futures, their families, states or the nation as a whole.

However the trauma post 26/11 served as a tipping out for a country neglected, a country besieged, as people publicly started lashing out at establishments and influential leaders in the country for having under delivered on all counts. 26/11 massified the movement. It wasn't as if one had not seen public outrages before, but the audience was limited and the action was specific to an institution/individual.

1. It started with the anti Mandal commission protests in 1990s, where students challenged the ministry and V P Singh led coalition on the execution of the reservation of seats for SC/STs and OBCs in professional courses. There after the AIIMS -
2. Jessica Lal's murder was the first instance of public outrage and media pressure leading to high court ruling out the judgement of a lower court.(acquiting the murderer, Manu Sharma, the son of a wealthy and influential politician). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jessica_Lal

The candle marches and other peaceful protests established this movement towards a more awakened and educated India. The tone was sorrowful and yet definitive. Just how many terrorist strikes were needed and how many innocent killed before the government and the bureaucracy would wake up to fulfill their duty of protecting the nations and citizens. The movement cost the Maharashtra CM and Home Ministers their seats. It was the first time, Citizen activism and media were getting their act together and the partnership effected the rise of this new phenomenon Citizen Activism.

Even as India goes to vote this time around, the activist media is proving its worth by educating the citizens about their voting rights and priviledges and the political drama unfolding and the criminal antecedents of a lot of the Lok Sabha candidates fielded by popular political parties.

1.I appreciate the attempts made by TATA TEA JAAGO RE campaigns in national media. http://www.jaagore.com/
2.Times of India's "No Criminals" LEAD INDIA' 09 campaign also focusses on much of the same message. http://www.lead.timesofindia.com/. Every other publication house is stoking the nationalist ideals within the citizens in its own way.
3.There are forums like National election Watch, a google based group that is actively disseminating information regarding criminals who are in the fray of seats for this years Lok Sabha elections. http://groups.google.com/group/national-election-watch?hl=en.
4.An Ahmedabad based NGO, http://www.adrindia.org/home/index.asp is actively educating the citizenry on elections, manifestos, candidates and criminals in politics.

5.On the humorous and sarcastic bit , there is this campaign from Radio Mirchi, called Bleed India, which is a satiric take on the virtues(or bane) of not voting!

But that is not just it, in terms of Citizen activism. Sample These:
1. Aamir Khan is actively advertising for Switch off, a volutary movement of switching of all electrical appliances for an hour on a given day, 28th March, 2009. http://www.earthhour.in/
2. Sachin Tendulkar dedicated his test century at Hamilton against new Zealand to tiger preservation.
3. Perizaad Zorabian, is a part of "Save the Glaciers" group educating people about Global warming and the likes.
4. Preity Zinta, adopted 34 orphans on her birthday.

The good thing about any person (forget Aamir, Sachin or Preity's status) voluntaring for a cause is that he raises interest and awakening in the vicinity around him. As is said, a single candle cannot light up the whole room, but does it own little bit in fighting darkness. Citizen Activism is passing that light, that beacon of hope and awareness from one person to another and presisting till the stated goals are achieved.

Delhi's Commonwealth Tamasha

2009-03-16T01:08:00.001-07:00

There are less than 18 months to October 2010, when Delhi will be hosting the Commonwealth games. It will be a world stage where India will exhibit its own progress and panache much like China did it in the 2008 Olympics and Sydney did it in 2006 Commonwealth. However, the road to Commonwealth has been bumpy, patchy and with a reason, non existant. In an earlier post, i had covered the state of (un)readiness of Delhi to host an event so large in magnitude and scale. http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/delhi-running-out-of-time-on.html

Lately, Australian Commonwealth Games Association, has issued a threat to pull out of the Delhi CWG if its security concerns are not met. The security assessment a month before the games would be critical in terms of Australian contingent proceeding with their participation. It comes on the back of the attack on Sri Lankan Team in Pakistan. Earlier, the centre government had sanctioned Rs.78.26 crore for security arrangements (after the Sri Lankan team episode in Pakistan).

While security is the top most in the list of priorities, Infrastructure addition to the city has also been a concern. A few interesting notes about the same:

1. The longest flyover in Delhi, which will connect the 5 kms stretch from Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium to the Games Village bypassing Sarai Kale Khan and Nizamuddin West will be built at a cost of Rs.5 billion! This will facilitate movement of 10000 atheletes from the games village to the main stadium. This project is expected to be finished in 24 months!
Please note, the 24 month project starting date (March 2009) onwards would mean that the fly over will not be fully available ort may be partially available for the task it is being built for!

2. Earlier this flyover was supposed to be a tunnel road which was rebuffed by the Archeological Survey of India fearing danger to Humayun's tomb!
So much for town planning and preparation for Games

3. While MCD tries to expedite the projects at hand, it is now eating some of its own medicine as it faces resistenace from the environment department of Delhi Government. The widening of the the road to Karni Singh Shooting range has hit the breaker (after being stuck for 6 months anyway) because widening of the road would require felling 400 trees, which is not permitted.
So a "one- way" solution is being thought about.
Did the MCD involve other stake holders in the goverment when they had first envisaged the locations of the games? The answer seems to be no!

4. In a report to the chief justice K.G.Balakrishnan, town planner and former chairman of Delhi Urban Arts Commission, Charles Correa has advocated that the badminton and the squash stadiums be moved away from Siri Fort Indoor Stadium to elsewhere for the purpose of preserving the the green in the area. MCD is now looking at other options with a Rs.1.5 billion kitty for Squash and Badminton stadiums!
Alternate options had never been prepared. Old Sites were being counted upon. With the development tactic backfiring on issues such as environment it will be interesting to see how MCD generates options for the CWG

Pakistan on edge

2009-03-15T23:18:00.001-07:00

The power struggle between Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz sharif threatens to paralyze the government in Islamabad and distract the army from its fight against Taliban militants operating along the Afghan border. (Pakistani army has always fancied distractions that reduce its Focus from US aided war on Taliban. Earlier, the distraction was a belligerent India and now the distractions are the polticial forces within.)

So then, it was Zardari who started it all by dismissing Shahbaz Sharif's Punjab government (Shahbaz being Nawaz's brother) over convictions dating back to an earlier chapter in Pakistan's political history. Coupled with a mess of reinstatement of (Musharraf Sacked) chief justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Muhammed Chaudhury, which has piqued lawyers and judicial authorities and a no show at being able to keep Taliban at bay, Zaradari's inconsistency and inability has been attacked by Nawaz Sharif. Not only has he violated the state imposed house arrest, he also has a few brownies from the Long march to Islamabad. Ceeding to pressures all around him Asif Zaradari has now thrown the towel in.Iftikhar Chowdhury restoration to the chief justice position has re-instated Nawaz Sharif's stature as a viable alternative to Asif Ali Zardari. This also has de-escalated a political flashpoint that was looming large on Islamabad.

With no control of Army and Intelligence, Asif Ali Zardarai seems to have now lost the high moral grounds of presidency after he had to reinstate Iftikhar Chowdhury. The public sentiment for him is worse than that of Musharraf in his time. The US is clearly according the army chief Gen Ashfaq Kiyani more importance than Zaradri and his PM, Gilani.

For everything after all, it seems that Asif Ali Zardari's step down time is near.

The disarray in Pakistani Leadership

2009-03-14T22:03:00.000-07:00

Pakistan's Men of Power: Top Left Gen Ashfaq Kiyani (holds the key to Army and ISI); Top Right Yusuf Gilani ( Prime Minister); Bottom Left Asif Ali Zardari (The president) and Bottom Right Nawaz Sharif (Former PM and eminent Leader)

The formation of a democratic government led by President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, was seen as the beginning of better times after 9 years of dictatorial rule by Musharraf. The move to Democracy appears to have become one of regression. The state of Pakistan has markedly deteriorated in the last year or so. On hind sight, the choice of Zardari to represent Pakistan has been a wrong one.

Zardari's inabilities have been manifold.
1. Surrendering a large swathe of federal provinces to Taliban and Sharia law is his biggest undoing.

2. Inabilities to cope up with Terrorist attacks in Pakistan, India and elsewhere (featuring the attack on Sri Lankan Cricket team) have earned condemnation in all international forums.

3.The charges of promoting followers, family and friends in government contracts and deals will probably attract investigations in the next regime.

4.The world has also taken note of the removal of charges on nuclear proliferator and renegade scientist Abdul Qadir Khan.

5.Banning former Prime minister Nawaz Sharrif and his brother Shahbaz Sharrif from contesting in elections and holding office will in hind might prove to be the undoing of Zardari.

6.As the political leader of his state, Zardari has not given an impression of control on internal matters and has often vacillated under pressure from various stake holders.

7.The failure to reinstate chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhury has seen outbursts from the members in the judiciary.

8.The move to censor Geo TV from certain parts of Pakistan implies subversion of free speech. Geo TV has been extensively covering anti government protests.

In the face of so many problems and a loose intent to address them, US has initiated a move towards addressing issues through army chief Ashfaq Kiyani is a significant one. US is now trying to engage and influence one who has some control over the army and intelligence. The all powerful Jack of cards (Kiyani) is more handy than the inept King and Ace ( Zardari and Gilani). The jack has now started triumphing the king and the ace. Kiyani has asked Zardari to clean up the 'Mess'. Well, it looks as he some one atleast has a measure of control in Pakistan.

Article Chronology:

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/is-pakistan-dividing-again.html

Elections and the Populist Gravy train

2009-03-10T05:28:00.000-07:00

Barrack Obama may not find supporters of his "stimulus act" to the American economy. But he has serious serious competition in India. Sample the populist measures unvieled by different state governments for the people of their states:

1. Uttar Pradesh: After Dalit reservation, it is time for Upper caste and Muslim quota by Mayawati. Then there are one time settlements of power bill arrears in villages and a relaxation of stamp duty on property registrations from 10% to 7%. Most of the properties bought will be by mayawati anyways.
No one talks of the death of a hard working PWD engineer who was lynched by Mayawati's henchmen.
2. Tamil Nadu: Free health insurance to poor, Rice at 1kg/kilo, free colour TV sets to all households.
3. Maharashtra: More floor space for religious temples, special grants for education institutions of minorities. Mandatory employement of sons of soil (marathi manus) in industries of the state.
4. Andhra: Rs.1 lkah loan waiver for SC/ST/BC and minorities. 9 communities to BCs list.
5. Madhya Pradesh: Wheat @ Rs.2 Kg/Kilo. Farm loans @3%. Rs. 50000 loan waiver for farmers.
6. Rajasthan: 6% DA to state employees, an annual outlay of Rs.17322 crores for development.
7. West Bengal: Rice at Rs.2 Kg/Kilo, 20% pay hike for teachers, Rs.5106 crore fiscal stimulus package.
8. Bihar: Rs.16300 crore for development of 36,500 kms roads, Rs.236 crore steel plant at Bettiah, Schemes worth Rs. 10000 crores in 20 districts
9. Karnataka: Rs.130 crores for Mutts and temples.

In an earlier post, i had mentioned the cost of elections to exchequer and party spends to be around Rs.6000 crores. The figures announced in populist policies is an estimable one. All this a cost to the exchequer and to the taxes that the citizens pay for 543 corrupt / illiterate / inefficient/ unrelentingly shameless representative of the state. ALl this is a bribe to the electorate for which the electorate foots the bill. What recession, Mr. Obama?

General Elections: The great Indian tamasha

2009-03-10T04:35:00.000-07:00

The leaders of our democracy continually disgrace the office and the trust that they carry by the citizens of the country. Criminalization of Politics is rampant and with the majority seats being the major electoral agendas, parties both national and regional choose candidates who are from dubious backgrounds to lead constituencies, state and the country. With the new citizen activism taking wings, 2009 looks to be beginning of an anti criminalization movement in the country. One must give kudos to the social and political thinkers, awareness generation groups and the press for supporting this new movement. A new ad campaign doing rounds of the satellite networks is the "i will vote against.." which exhorts citizens to vote against all that is ill in this country for the future generations.

Impervious to this mood however (strangely) are political parties, who seem to be eternally haggling about seat sharing and opportunistic alliances. BJP led NDA has run into problems with JD(U) and Shiv Sena. Apart from that a long time partner BJD (Naveen Pattnaik led Orissa party) has already ditched BJP to join the third front. Congress and UPA have its own list of woes with SP (AN uneasy alliance that has broken down), NCP, TMC and RJD all on seat sharing basis. The gainer of all this is the third front or the left with its ragmatag loose coalition of marginal and state majors. So far, a national agenda is yet to be firmly highlighted by Congress and BJP who seem to be more busy in terms of getting its partners right.

In an earlier post i had already mentioned about how the initial Lok Sabha candidates list by BJP, INC and SP are tainted with individuals from dubios and criminal cases riding behind them. http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/criminalization-of-politics-revisiting.html. Of the 543 representatives of the country in May 2004, 125 had charges against them, many with serious offences.Of the 125, 96 had serious charges with potential sentences of two years or more. A quarter of them had done more than 3 terms in the Lok Sabha.

It is worth a note how BJP and Congress dominate the party list, fielding close to 50% of the total tainted list. The first party lists for the general election this year have started to flow out and out of the 18 out of 71 candidates on whom the background checks were have emerged tainted. The percentages of candidates with Criminal past is definitely not abating. If anything the trend is getting more and more established.

The urban rural divide and electoral anti incumbency.

2009-03-07T22:33:00.000-08:00

Historically,the anti incumbency factor has delivered some telling blows to governments, upsetting poll surveys, analysts and conventional thinking. The best example of this is perhaps the fall of BJP led NDA in 2004 general elections. That was when the GDP Growth was starting to get at 8% levels, the economy was resurgent and "India Shinning" was the phrase to sum up India. 2009 is markedly different.The GDP growth has fallen to 5.3% in October - December quarter of 2008 from the 8.9% levels in the same period in 2007. Agricultural GDP is at2.2% growth (low from 6.9% YOY), Manufacturting had a sub zero GDP growth rate. Economies around the world are faltering, there is a global meltdown of the banking systems and governments around the world are trying their best to rekindle economic growth. How is all this going to affect the incumbency of Congress and its UPA alliance?

On one side, the manufacturing slump means fewer jobs for migrants from rural states to once booming cities, job growth is slowing and many small businesses and hawkers are suffering. Infrastructure addition has not been as per the promises made by the government, their are real time "terror" issues.es sector, which relies heavily on foriegn markets have gone from bad to worse in the current economic meltdown.

But if the indicators are to be factored in, Rural India is doing well. Sample this:
1. 15 million new cellphone connections were sold in january 2009, up from 10 million in December and all this growth is rural based.
2. Hero Honda's sales of motorcycles which focus on rural areasrose 24% in February.
3. FMCG sector has been doing better than average business in the small towns and rural areas.
4. Agriculture has been witnessing bumper crops and high prices, a boon for the agri economy.
5. Rural wages are high, assisted by the Rural Employment Generation Scheme. Several states have revised minimum wages upward benefitting workers.
6. For the millions working in government organizations, the 6th Pay commission has increased salaries and they are doing well sitting on arrears paid.
7. A good monsoon has bouyed up the agri sector and though rainfull is painfully deficient in some states leading to farmer suicides, the overall mood is optimistic.

All factors put together, Rural India seesm to be doing better and with 70% of the population being rural, the ruling coalition has reasons to believe that it has done reasonable well in terms of building a platform to ask for a re-election. Thus the Congress led UPA is not badly placed in terms of riding against anti incumbency with the rural surge.

Criminalization of Politics: Revisiting the same paradigm in 2009 Elections

2009-03-06T22:50:00.001-08:00

With election commission declaring a 5 stage electoral process for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the political tempo has set a pace with seat sharing bargains between the principal parties (Congress/BJP) with other regional parties. ToI's first round poll results have indicated no definiote majority and in effect, it would be these political parties which would prove to be the kind makers in the face of a hung parliament.

What is disturbing to the citizens of the state is the number of candidates with criminal pasts being fielded by political parties all over. These are same political parties which roil and shout and critic each others criminals antecedents. In two different reports by ADR (Association of Democratic Reforms), a Ahmedabad NGO has exposed the criminal background of lok sabha candidates fielded by Congress, BJP and SP. This is only basis the 50000 criminal records since 2003 (and not earlier!)

Basis the limited database that the NGO was working around, it can be clearly seen that INC has fielded 4 candidates in UP with criminal background, while BJP has fielded 8 in the LOk Sabha Fray who have criminal backgrounds. BSP has fielded 6 criminals in the Lok Sabha candidates. Many of these candidates have serious charges against them.

WIth lack of a political will, does clean politics stand a chance in this nation: the largest democracy in the world.

Is Pakistan dividing again

2009-03-03T05:58:00.000-08:00

Over the last 5 months, i have written about 8 posts on Pakistan emphasizing that the current turn of events are only stages of what could be the end of the nation state of Pakistan.

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_17.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/did-obama-force-zardaris-hand.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_20.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_18.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/next-terror-attack-on-us-will-originate.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/11/us-suspects-kashmir-based-group-behind.html

This post is a reproduction of an article by Shaun Gregory, former British high commissioner to Pakistan.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Sunday-TOI/All-That-Matters/Losing-integrity-Is-Pakistan-dividing-again/articleshow/4206486.cms

There is a school of thought which has long argued that the creation of Pakistan in 1947 was a geographical, ethnic, cultural, economic, and political artifice sewn and held together only by the weak thread of a questionable religious homogeneity, and that consequently the project of Pakistan would eventually be torn apart by its own contradictions.

History may well record that the abject surrender of Swat in a phoney ‘peace deal’ marked an important stepping stone on the path to Pakistan’s destruction.

While the weak and hapless Zardari/Gilani government continues to waste precious political capital on PPP infighting and avoidable confrontation with Nawaz Sharif, to the west of the Indus river dynamics are unfolding which have placed Pakistan’s integrity once more in question.

Since 2001, the Pakistan Army and ISI have been playing a dangerous game in providing sanctuary to the Afghan Taliban in the Pashtun areas of Northern Balochistan and in the FATA, in the expectation that Mullah Omar would orchestrate a comeback in Afghanistan, displace the Karzai regime or any of its western-backed successors, force NATO from the region, and reverse India’s growing influence in Afghanistan.

In early 2009, this strategy appears to be working. The Afghan Taliban are influential across all but the most northerly areas of Afghanistan and a peace deal of some sort with Mullah Omar is predicted this year or next.

Pakistan has, however, entered a Faustian pact with Mullah Omar and the Quetta Shura, and the darker implications of that bargain have only now begun to dawn on Pakistan’s ruling elite.

As the Afghan Taliban have regained power and momentum from sanctuaries in Pakistan, they have also created and driven the context for the emergence and evolution of virulent forms of Pakistani militancy and terrorism, both in Pakistan’s Pashtun areas and across Pakistan.

These dynamics have been reinforced by the Pakistan army/ISI’s continued embrace of Punjabi terrorists, and by the military focus of the US-led war on terror which has fuelled radicalisation on both sides of the Durand Line.

In this context tribal armies in the FATA have mutated into new forms of radical extremist groups such as Baitullah Mehsud’s TTP and Fazlullah’s TNSM. Al-Qaida has re-emerged and re-established something of its global reach, foreign fighters from as far as Algeria, European diasporas, western China and the Philippines have once again poured into the region, and the huge expansion of largely Saudi and locally-funded madrassas has ensured a continual supply of young Afghans and Pakistanis ready to die for the militant cause.

The Pakistan army and ISI have presided over this rising tide of terrorism and religious extremism in the expectation that they could achieve their aims in Afghanistan through the Afghan Taliban while keeping control of Pakistani militancy and terrorism on their own side of the border.

In the wake of the bombing of the Marriott hotel in Islamabad in September 2008, and of the escalation of terrorist violence in Pakistan’s cities which preceded it, that calculation has proven disastrously wrong.

Given the perilous situation in which the Pakistani state now finds itself, the question of why the Pakistan army/ISI has still not thrown its lot in with the US and NATO and unleashed the full force of the Army and the ISI against the Afghan Taliban, the tribal militants, and al-Qaida, requires an answer.

Only two arguments make any sense: either the Pakistan Army-ISI is unwilling to do so or it is unable to do so. If the former, then that can only be because the Army-ISI still believes it can contain the militancy and terrorism within Pakistan.

If this is the case, then one wonders why the Army-ISI continues to think that and how many more Marriotts on the push side, and what western incentives on the pull side will it take before the Army and ISI make a decisive break with past policy?

More gravely for Pakistan, for its neighbours, and for the West, the other possibility is that the Pakistan Army and ISI may genuinely have reached the practical limits of their ability to control militancy and terrorism.

Pakistan has committed up to 120,000 troops to the FATA region and since September 2008 has not been able to make a substantive impact in Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies.

Mullah Omar and the Quetta Shura is understood, through a decentralised command structure and with the support of al-Qaida, to broadly control the tribal militants in Pakistan, such as the TTP and TNSM, which pose the most direct threat to the state of Pakistan.

Mullah Omar and the Pakistan Army-ISI are, thus, locked in a fearful stalemate: Mullah Omar checks the power of Pakistan’s militants and holds them back from escalating violence against the Pakistani state, and in return the Pakistan Army-ISI continues the support and protection of Mullah Omar and the Quetta Shura and pays lip-service to western demands for tough action against the Afghan Taliban.

Either way, the Pashtun areas of Pakistan are beyond the reach of the Pakistani state and it is difficult to see that they can be recovered.

The situation in Swat, thus, stands as an expression of a larger crisis of state legitimacy which for all practical purposes will likely see another piece of Pakistan break away.

Delhi: Running out of time on Commonwealth

2009-03-03T02:53:00.000-08:00

A sequel to my earlier post : A system in Rot, http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/03/system-in-rot.html, this blog post takes the lack of seriousness of governance and Bureaucracy to the next level: How is it going to affect the 2010 Commonwealth games in Delhi?

China's Beijing Olympic dazzle left the world glittered in its awe and won it some great acclaim world over. In 2006, Melbourne hosted the Commonwealth Games and rasied the bar ever so much. In 2010, the Commonwealth games move into India and Delhi. Its less than 18 months here on to the games and Delhi looks not even to have started the preparedness to the Commonwealth. A parliamentary report tabled at the Rajya Sabha has slammed Delhi Government's preparedness on the Commonwealth and yet the Delhi sport minister, Manohar Singh Gill has side stepped the concern, likening the preparation for Commonwealth to a great Indian wedding, where everything comes together just on time before the opening ceremony. For the government that was elected on its progress agenda, Shiela Dixit and her men, are in adenial to face realities that they face. Worse, adhocism and procastrination in terms of infrastructure development leading to this event may dent India's image significantly in the world communities but no one seems to be bothered about it really. All that is in the air, is the election and its doesnot seem like there will be any awareness and action on this till about June 2009, which will only leave 15 months to the Opening ceremony.

The Games Village, the facilities around, the roads and transport, the security, the airports,the water and power supply, nothing seems to be in place for this spectacle. In absence of any serious call to action, the image that India may project in front of the 71 participating nations may not be a very flattering one. According to press reports, the Commonwealth boxing championships have already been pushed back from December 2009 and the vice president of the international swimming federation has already slammed the organisers for the poor facilities.

The ministers answers, the CAG report on delays in project completion, ruefully point to the deliberate lack of seriousness in efforts to develop infrastructure. If this be the case in Delhi, which is the capital of this country, imagine what be it in far off places (India being a geographical and economically diverse country!). Corruption, schedule overruns, rampant mis-use of public funds, lack of foresight in policy decisions and ballooning funds are going to sink the ship, even before it takes to the high seas. A damning statistic over here: out of 519 infrastructure projects scheduled by the central government, 258 are running behind schedule (50%) and the cost overruns are 13.4% (from 344119 crores to 390230 crores).

It is time to step up the gas, and probably at this time, it is worth inviting private participation of infrastructure companies to speeden things up for a change.

A system in rot

2009-03-01T22:26:00.000-08:00

In one of my earliest blog posts in September 2008, i had debated the state of Indian roads with the Mint editor Raju Narisetti.
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/08/of-infrsatructure-and-capital.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/09/of-infrastructure-and-capital.html

The debate on accountability for the bad state of infrastructure has been re kindled by the CAG report which was reported by TOI:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Delhi/55_of_roads_okayed_by_MCD_substandard_CAG/articleshow/4203120.cms
The report brings forth the following points

MCD accepts substandard road work from contractors insteda of opting for minimum quality standards. Third party checks on 20 roads built between 2003 and 2008 reported 55% of the roads below standard.
42 roads have been damaged during the warranty period and there have been no repairs made on to them. This was while the warranty covered all costs of repairs.

5 newly built roads made at a cost of Rs.3.18 crores were accpeted by the MCD where as third party checks by the CAG have found them to be substandard.

Of 304 RWAs (resident welfare associations) surveyed 77% have reported bad roads in their colonies and 71% have said that the roads in their colonies have not been repaired even once in the last 5 years.

Of the total allocation of monies for road development, MCD has routinely diverted the money to purchase of vehicles, computers, hiring of vehicles and office work constructions.

Contractors delay the road work routinely, and though they should be fined for it, none of they are ever penalised courtesy MCD.

On an average 87% of the total project contractual work amounts are duly paid up to the contractors, with out any completion of work.

Monies collected from other agencies for road development lies sorely under utilised.

MCD has been commissioning quality checks without mandatory quality checks 53% of the times.

A third of MCD assets such as drainage, sewage, roads and subways are in a state of neglect.

These are just about gaping wide craters in the system, sucking up the taxpayers money and distributing it to a few pockets in the MCD and the Government machinery. While fraudsters and scamsters are tried, penalised and punished, the MCD - Government nexus which is probably a shade worse in fraud, scmas and misuse of public money go about becoming more powerful and more irresponsible and more corrupt in their ways. One would have to give the kudos to CAG to bring such facts on the table. But one needs a more wilful, accountable and "aware" governance to fight se evils of the system.

Receeding Glaciers: Earth's natural heritage at terrible risk (Part II)

2009-02-23T03:57:00.000-08:00

The scale of the problem can be realised when you factor in that huge populations dependent on glacier-fed rivers in Asia - 360 million on the Ganges in India and 388 million on the Yangtze in China alone - will not be able to feed themselves, with devastating effect on already rising global food prices. The problem is the most acute in Asia, where glaciers are an important source for nine major rivers which run through land occupied by 2.4 billion people. In Pakistan, for example, 80 per cent of agricultural land is irrigated by the Indus, which the WWF last year highlighted as one of the world's 10 big at-risk rivers because retreating glaciers provide 70-80 per cent of its flow.

According to a report by the world Glacier monitoring service, from 1850 to 1970, net losses averaged about 30cm a year; between 1970 to 2000 they rose to 60-90cm a year; and since 2000 the average has been more than one metre a year. Last year the total net loss was the biggest ever, 1.3m, and only one glacier became larger. Worldwide, the vast majority of the planet's 160,000 glaciers are receding at least at this rate or more! According to a UNEP report two-thirds of China's glaciers would disappear by 2050, and 'almost all would be gone by 2100'.

In North America, 99-plus per cent of Alaskan glaciers are either retreating or stagnating. In the European Alps, a report last year by UNEP said glaciers declined, from a peak in the 1850s, by 35 per cent by 1970 and by 50 per cent by 2000, and lost 5-10 per cent in the mega-hot year of 2003 alone. UNEP has also reported declines in the last 50-150 years of 1.3 per cent in the Arctic islands to 50 per cent in the North Caucasus in Russia, 25-50 per cent in central Asia, a 2km retreat of the massive Gangotri glacier which feeds the Ganges, 49 to 61 per cent in New Zealand, and 80 per cent in the high mountains of southern Africa. There is also 'considerable' shrinking of medium and small glaciers in central Chile and Argentina accompanied by 'drastic retreat' of glaciers in Patagonia to the south.

On a global level, scientists warn that melting glaciers are contributing more than ever to rising sea levels: expansion of warmer water is estimated to cause two-thirds of the problem, but melting glaciers and icecaps are the second biggest contributor. A recent paper published by Science calculated acceleration of glacier melt could add 0.1-0.25m to sea-level rise by 2100.

At a policy level, leaders around the world are still debating the means to address problems such as greenhouse emissions and carbon footprints. Outside in the wilderness, the last signs of earth's heritage, its glaciers are melting away more rapidly than we care to think about.

(reproduced from http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/mar/16/glaciers.climatechange)

Receeding Glaciers: Earth's natural heritage at terrible risk (Part I)

2009-02-23T03:23:00.000-08:00

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Earth/Glaciers-in-Tibet-shrinking-/articleshow/4175959.cms

Glaciers in the Qinghai - Tibet Plateau in Yangtze source area, have receded 196 sq.kms over the last 40 years!

Glaciers at the headwaters of the Yangtze, China's longest river, now cover 1,051 square km compared to 1,247 square km in 1971, a loss of nearly a billion cubic metres of water.

The tongue of the Yuzhu glacier, the highest in the Kunlun Mountains, fell by 1,500 metres over the same period, showed the study

In the short term, melting glacier waters brings more fresh water to rivers, but as the source dies down, the river beds will dry out and have droughts every cycle. This will disturb the population around the banks and the agricultural patterns, which depend on the river as a lifeline. On the other hand melting water in glaciers are also submerging pastures in higher Himalayas impacting the domestic, trade, fauna and flora of the regions. Tibet today faces this problem where Glaciers and their rapid cooling are causing changes both in life and economy of the country.

While Tibet is the just the stating bell, this is an ominous sound of coming disaster which will impact the planet as a whole. As they retreat, glacial lakes will burst, debris and ice will fall in avalanches, rivers will flood and then dry up, and sea levels will rise even further, say the climate experts. Communities will be deprived of essential water, crops will be ruined and power stations which rely on river flows paralysed.

There something about Digital Brands: Buzzing away to glory

2009-02-21T10:40:00.000-08:00

If it wasnot for the TATA entry at no.6, the 7 most buzzing brands in India would all have been New age/ Digital/ Electronic brands. This is according to the top 50 list of most buzzing brands in india released by Afaqs.

For the third successive year, Airtel retains the crown of the most buzzing brand. All that marketing spend with SRK, Saif, Kareena, A R Rehman, Madhavan and Vidya Balan is showing there on the top. For a brand selling something as competitive and undifferentiated as air time, Airtel has used all its resources to stay well on top for three years.

If Airtel used its marketing muscle to stay on top, Facebook and Google didnot even move a single muscle. No budgets in marketing what so ever. And Facebook did come ever so close to Airtel. There may be a lesson here, Web 2.0 brands may after all be very independent from the traditional modes of marketing. User Involvement and innovation may be the key in here.

I had blogged sometime back on "What an Idea, sirjee". Appears that the junta under its new founded citizen activism mantra identifies with the campaign and the brand is buzzing high up at No.4. Nokia keeps itself at No 5 and losses a few votes. But, as a company, it backs itself in hard times to come out stronger. You cannot count them out.

A legacy brand 120 years old is as relevant to India as ever. In news because of its Jaguar and Land Rover deals, Tata moves up two notches. As proven by Taj, which comes into No 9 from nowhere a good brand can capitulate on a painful 26/11 thing. To Tata, and to Indianness, These brands keep buzzing1

Hutch was in the top 5 for two years before it went crashing out for a year. After a hiatus of an year, Vodafone crashes in top 10 and the way it is for this brand, it looks like it will surely eye the 6 spots ahead of it next year.

Time of India holds itself steady though it looses a spot. News in India is the Times!

Inspite of being in news through out the year, Kingfisher and Reliance go down by 9 spots on the buzzing brands! Well, India surely believes Buzzing brands need more than bikini ladies and Fisichella force to keep them buzzing. Aint it Mr Mallya? Alsomissing in action is our local brand university, HUL and its power brands. HUL would be dissapointed.

Virgin with its youthy ads seem to have caught some attention here. In a very short time, Virgin really has gathered some insights, which makes it identiable with the youth population in India.

In a high Top of the mind category, Coke seems to have shut itself off from big time advertising and that is showing in there. Refer to Pepsi with its Ranbir - Deepika and Dhoni company which has done somewhat better. Expect Aamir to be back prime time with his Chota Coke or what ever now. Speaking of Aamir, Samsung seems to be getting its act in order with its huge jump in spots.

What ever happened to Maggi, a young India favourite, which has fallen dismally!

One opinion, however controversial in here is that the Afaqs missed listing a big one! This is Brand Satyam. Whether for good,bad or ugly reasons, Satyam has generated more buzz than the whole of the top 5 put together!

The Road to no where: Subhiksha

2009-02-19T20:27:00.000-08:00

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/01/subhiksha-perfect-go-bust-part-ii.html

http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=7418068395817476239&postID=1757367981531350090

http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/the-anatomy-of-a-bust

http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/the-road-to-no-where

6 months and 4 posts later, Subhiksha is no tottering on the brink. Its 1600 outlets are all shut. It is not doing business, it has 300 crore of immediate cash requirement, it has not paid its employees 5 months salaries, it is indebted to its suppliers and other creditors, it owes the landlords rents of the outlets, it has no money to pay its security, its stores have been vandalized, most of its managerial cadre has left. How worse can it get? A little more from here: 5 of its 10 directors have resigned from its board, Tata Teleservices which provided its employees with phone lines has a bill of Rs.10 crore, with which it has gone to Chennai court, the EPF trust has moved court against non submission of EPF amounts. It doesnot get worse than this.

Apparently RS is not declaring Subhiksha bankrupt and is going through a debt restructuring programme to make his company lucrative for equity participation offers! Interestingly 5 of its independent directors including the 2 members of the ICICI venture have resigned from its board. Azim Premji, another investor in the company is moving the court on the matter of merger of Subhiksha with Blue Green constructions. That makes 6 independent directors in a board of 10, who appear to have views about Subhiksha and its management, which are completely different from RSs views. The other 4 directors include RS himself and 3 faceless nameless entities from Blue Green Constructions (A company promoted by RS). There are chilling similarities between Subhiksha and Satyam.

In the month of May 2008, Subhiksha had taken a debts from 10 banks worth 620 crore. Then it had also issued warrants to 6 Mutual fund houses totalling another 40 crore. Thats a total of 660 crore. Of Subhiksha's own filing, we know that it is a 2308 crore company in trunover (FY 08). That means a monthly revenue of Rs.200 crores. After recieving a debt stimulus in May 2008, the company started defaulting on suppliers from July and August 2008 and there were delays in employee payments August - September onwards. These matters are in public knowledge by relevant press coverage in those dates. One would assume the 660 crore in the system would have been put to good use and yet the chain was massively defaulting.

Subhiksha was speaking of Private mandis and CDIT stores those days, but the plans never saw fulfilment. There was no significant expansion activity those days. So the 660 crore couldnot have been used up in expansion alone! If 3 montsh expansion ate up all of 66o Crores, that would have a fast and furious expansion and it would again be public knowledge!

If Subhiksha was funding existing operations, running out of 660 crores in 3 months is unbelievable really. For a chain doing 200 cores of monthly business, using up 200 crores (660 crores in a quarter) is tantamount to zero operational deliveries. That is quite an impossibility.

If the 660 crores were used to square off earlier debts, it would have meant that the money put to use earlier didnot earn returns! The model thus was not working from its very beginning!

Which ever way the 660 crores were put to use amongst these three, or a combination of these three; it only demonstrates the incapability of the management at Subhiksha. Perhaps a little more, there is a possibility that the 660 crores could have been siphoned off... (we dont want to relive Satyam!)

With such a background, does RS hope to find a equity buyer... i doubt it.

6000 crores: Cost of running the Largest democracy in the world

2009-02-18T06:45:00.000-08:00

Seven days back, i had put in my first post on the election expenditure in India. http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/elections-in-india-financial-black-box.html
I feel compelled to revisit the the topic again basis a times of India report on election expenses. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/Economy/Finance/Coming-Rs-6000-crore-poll-stimulus/rssarticleshow/4146923.cms

This ToI report by Akshaya Mukul and Sanjaya Dutta tries estimating the lowerside of the costs of a general election in India. The starting premise is Rs.1300 crores (equal to 2004s spends) on getting the infrastructure and machinery running. (I had estimated this to be Rs.2000 crores)

On a very basic assumption that all 543 constituencies will have a triangular contest, the model estimates 543*3*2 = Rs.3258 crores of money spent by candidates on their campaigns. It is worth a mention that the average spend by a candidate has been fixed at Rs.2 crore. This doesnot include upsides like city candidates spending more, or, more than 3 candidates in the fray. Also the campaigns are getting the technology edge i.e SMSs, Websites, Web Banners etc. These costs have been overlooked because compared to all other traditional means and methods, these would really be a very small percentage.

Then there are the party propaganda costs. This is over and above the candidate spends at constituencies and they drive the party objective (e.g Bharat Nirman, LKAdvani.com etc). This doesnot stop at BJP and Congress. SP, BSP, BJD,RJD, DMK, TDP, NCP, JDU, CPM and many other will incur spends. These figures are difficult to ascertain. Alone Congress had declared Rs.125 crore spends and BJP had declared Rs.42 crore spends in 2004. We can assume a figure of Rs.750 crore as a cummulative of propaganda costs of all party which by all means would again be extremely conservative. (We already have BJP spending Rs.250 crore in its "L K Advani as prime minister" campaign).

Then a ball parkish Rs.250 cores (again on lower side) can be parked for donations from friends and benefactors of the candidates.

Thus we have 1300 crores (estimate of 2004) + 3258 (Spends by candidates) + 750 crores (Spends by parties) + 250 crores (donations) ~ Rs. 6000 corore riding on teh elections. A more realstic figure would be Rs.7500 crore. In a year , when 2 stimulus packages have failed to revive economic growth, and a pessimistic view of fiscal deficit puts it at 10% of GDP (Planned at 6%), Rs. 6000 crore appears to be a very high price to pay for making choices (one not any better than the other).

However, that i presume is the cost of running the largest democracy in the world ~ rs.6000 crore in the election year (recession or no recession!). The minimum we do is to vote!

Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation (Part V)

2009-02-17T22:48:00.001-08:00

I suppose i should now change the headline of this series of posts. Over the last 3 months, i have in a series of blogs stressed upon the dire straits that Pakistan is in today. By all means it is a crumbling nation imploding under its own fanatic religious idealogies.

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_20.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation_18.html

http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-wont-pakistan-make-it-as-nation.html

Two days back, Pakistan Government has ceeded the control of Swat valley to Taliban. The mechanics include introduction of Sharia laws (Islamic Laws) in the beleagured Malakand area and a temporary suspension of military activities in the region. The direct accruals out of this development:

1. Taliban now have a safe haven/province, a sanctuary for Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. For the first time, we have a terrorist state on the global map!

2. Taliban is discomfortingly close to Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is well within a hands lenght of the Taliban Extremists!

3. Even as Taliban celebrate this event by rallies around Swat, this is Pakistan government's deepest and darkest hour when they are no longer able to retain control of their provinces.

4. Islamabad's faltering military campaign (which US pays for) is tentatively put on hold and Taliban have agreed for a tentative ceasefire.

According to the terms of the agreement, "all non-Shari'a laws" have been abrogated in Malakand. Security forces "will only act if fired upon by militants." And if the "writ of the state is restored," the army's 12,000 troops will be withdrawn from the valley. The agreement, enjoys the support of President Asif Ali Zardari.

To quote Time magazine on a source within the Pakistan Government, " government's acceptance of the [sharia] courts was an attempt to blunt efforts of the Taliban to woo Swat residents frustrated by the ineffective judiciary. The Taliban was trying to take advantage of the local movement and desire for a judicial system". Thus by putting the Sharia into prcatise the goverment is trying to appease its citizen in the valley, who have been frustrtade by Pakistan's venal courts and judiciary systems. This appeasement would stear the suppoorters away from the jihadist, isolate the militants and with the help of local leaders restore peace.

Under the Islamic laws, bombing of girl schools, subjgation of women, public beheadings, assassinations and Taliban courts to dispense justice would now be the order of the land in Malakand province. This follows a break down on the judicial system to dispense justice to citizens in the province. Sources with Malakand provinces have been quoted saying Islamabad
does not have sufficient force to defeat the Taliban and foreign fighters based in the autonomous tribal areas along the Afghan border and thus needs to negotiate with local militant groups in nearby areas like Swat to isolate the renegade hardliners in the tribal sanctuaries.

Once a popular tourist destination, Swat has over the past two years seen more than 1,500 people killed, close to 200 schools destroyed and girls' education banned, scores of beheadings and kidnappings, and more than 100,000 people driven from their homes.

Analysts and Observers say that this is a dangerous gamble and specially so with Islamabad which has limited control on its own defence establishments! Allowing Taliban a breather would allow them to regroup and push more at a later date which would not only endanger Pakistan but also have grave implicatiosn for India, US and the world.

My belief is that this is the beginning of the end game for Pakistan. Under US and iunternational pressure, Pakistan may have to take military action against the Taliban in the province. By allowing Taliban to regroup now, it will face a stronger foe. Chances are the situation will implode from within and Taliban will take a lot that is "Pakistan" down with it. An "Afghanistan" fate awaits Pakistan in the near future and the recent gambit has irrecoverably put Pakistan on the one way to destruction.

Did Obama force Zardari's hand?

2009-02-16T02:18:00.000-08:00

There are Republican views in US, that Obama's opening few days havent been any great success. This is to do with the $800 billion stimulus plan that Obama has been trying to push forward. There also is some confusion about a few members in Obama's Cabinet.

However, i give Obama a high score in the first 20 days in office. In terms of action in the subcontinent, Obama has gone about the task clinically, forcing Pakistan's admission on the 26/11 case. From a state of denial ("non state actors") to "stop and go" action (house arrests, crack down on terrorist camps) to vacillating stand points (we also trust China) to a full burst anti Taliban stand (taliban is trying to take over Pakistan); the leadership of Pakistan has given the world a myriad full screen matinee script worth digging discussions after discussions. However, the latest stand taken by Asif Ali Zardari in admitting Pakistan inability to restrict Taliban's power on its soil and a "mea culpa" (with conditions and demands of evidence) is the sign of hard diplomacy paying off. While India mounted the heat on Pakistan in terms of diplomacy (directed to ostracism of Pakistan); one feels that a major reason behind the Pakistani turn around was growing US pressure. Interestingly the game of twisting arms was played on one simple plank: economic aid. It is plain and clear that the economy of Pakistan today lives by the US aids and a failure on this part would have plunged Pakistan into civil unrest and turmoil.

Zardari on his behalf has probably taken the first significant step in what should be seen as purging Pakistan of the Taliban Carcinogen. We also know that the drone attacks on Taliban, which were being opposed by the Pakistani leadership, was actually happening from Pakistani airbases and under the leadership's knowledge. Todays newspaper speaks about a missile attack killing 10 Talibanis. It is becoming increasingly clear that Obama is under no mood to relent as far as wiping Taliban is concerned! Under pressure to support the economy and its survival, Zardari now tows Obama's lines.

If Zardari is able to get American aid to exorcise Taliban Influence on its lands, he would be doing Pakistan's future a great deal of good. I sincerely hope, that he is able to travel the distance without falling to the traggic fate of his wife. Somewhere between Obama, Zardari and Taliban lies the fate of Pakistan.

Peddling Politics of Hatred and Mistrust!

2009-02-15T22:33:00.000-08:00

I had covered the topic of Godhra riots in Gujarat, in two of my earlier blogs about Asma Jahangir's report to UN about status of the "minority religions" in India.
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/india-ticking-minority-time-bomb-part.html
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2009/02/india-ticking-minority-time-bomb-part-i.html

Seven years later, the issue still remains unresolved and sore thorns of hatred are littered around the country.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Gujarat-riots-toll-to-go-up-from-952-to-1180/articleshow/4133625.cms
Denial is a word that we have to associate with Pakistan and its refusal to owe responsibility for the terror that emanated from its soil and created havoc in the streets of Mumbai. However, there is this case of BJP government led by Narendra Modi in denial of its own heinous and barbaric act in the state of Gujarat. BJP, a hindu idealogy centred political party, could not control the militant and extremist arm of the Hindutva centered idealogy as it went on a murderous rampage in Gujarat in 2002. The death toll stands at 952 and will now rise to 1180 as the 228 "missing" will be declared dead! No effort was made to trace the 228 "missing", not because the banks had to pay compensation, but because this would repeal full scale investigation into the murders. Only when and if, the state goverment is hand in glove with the crimes such as these, can 228 people "missing" or "killed" enquiries be stalled. The issue which has incited so much attention to Indians and the secularistic fabric of our society, and has been portrayed on screen "Parzania", is swept under the carpet hastily, as BJP and its allies glorify Narendra Modi's tall list of achievements as a poll plank!

The government at centre cannot influence the one at state, because the constitution doesnot permit such interferences and more because they are from different parties and cannot stand together even on constructive issues, forget sore points such as these. The industry roots for polititicians such as Modi, because of the economic/business/political favours. In situations such as these, it is for educated citizenry and media who can form a stand against such issues and such loathsome idealogies and leaders!

The start can happen through casting our votes....

Elections in India: The financial black box!

2009-02-12T03:10:00.000-08:00

Till some time back, India was a third world nation. We have bettered that statistic quite meaningfully in the last decade. However, there is another statistic that is quite stark. The national commission on electoral reforms once remarked that the general election in India is eqquivalent to consucting polls in All Europe, US, Australia and Canada, all at once. That is perhaps because the population of India exceeds all these nations put together! The statistic shared above is the total cost of an election borne by the exchequer or rather the tax payer! Over the last 40 years the cost of conducting a general election in India has shot up by a multiple of 770! My estimate about the spends this year is above 2000 crores! Bear in mind, this to be the cost of general elections and not the state elections, which is borne by the respective state governments! The government spends the money on on deployment of security personnel and polling staff, setting up polling stations, purchase of electronic voting machines, and issuance of photo identification cards. Well, that is it as far as the government spends are concerned!

When the money blown up by the political parties, candidates and the private sources is concerned, there are no tabs! Political funding knows no accounting and measures! There are strict legal limits on the amount of money a candidate can spend on an election campaign. According to the Election Commission's rules, in bigger constituencies a candidate can spend up to Rs 25 lakh (Rs 2.5 million). In other constituencies, it varies between Rs 10 lakh (Rs 1 million) and Rs 25 lakh. Supporters of a candidate can spend as much as they like to help out with a campaign. But they have to get the candidate's permission in writing to do so. There is a legislative loophole in here, Explanation 1 to section 77(1) of the Representation of the Peoples Act 1951, under which amounts spent by persons other than the candidate and his agent are not added to his/her election expenses. This means a candidate can spend as much as he likes without violating the ceiling on poll expenses. All additional expenditure, when revealed, can be attributed to the party or friends of the candidate. Thus a Ambani funded Narendra Modi campaign can spends millions and millions more, (in return of trade favours later), without Narendra Modi even accouting for what he spent on and how much did he spend!

While parties are allowed to spend as much money on campaigns as they want, recent Supreme Court judgments have said that unless a political party can specifically account for the money thus spent, it will be added to the election expenses of the candidates concerned. The accountability thus imposed on candidates and parties has curtailed some of the more extravagant campaigning that used to be a feature of Indian elections.

It is time to take the legislation and the audits further into each candidate, his constituency and his spends! The first one is to put a cap on electoral spending by candidates! This has to include donations and gifts by friends, well wishers, supporters, followers and every one else! Such blind spending imbalances the polls and is simply a "bribe" issued to people for their votes! These need to be audited and defaulters to be stripped off their membership of houses!

It is also absolutely essential to do statutory audits of the national parties polling in the elections in terms the source and the spending of their funds! If SEBI can demand audits of companies listed in the stock excahnges, i dont see any reason why EC cannot ask full audits of the parties which go to poll in every election!

After all, this is money from the people, of the people and for the people. WHy not use it judiciously!

India: The ticking "minority" time bomb (Part II)

2009-02-11T01:56:00.000-08:00

Not from any Movie, this shot was taken during the Pune Riots some time back and capture the Extremist Hindu frenzy!

This poignant shot of Qutubuddin Ansari, a small time muslim trader in Gujarat, was the face of the hapless muslim in Gujarat riots! Fortunately, Ansari lived that day, unfortunately so has the frenzy!

In a three page round up of her report to the UN, Asma has summed up the current religious and political assessments very thoughtfully!

She has lauded the efforts of the existing government in terms of its 15 point programme for welfare of minorities, Justice Sachar and Justice Mishra committee reports. She has also lauded the efforts of the national commission on minorities and national media channels and citizens who have risked their own lives and saved the lives of many during the communal riots!

She has however, indicated a difference in the intent of many state governments with regard to intolerance and discrimination of minorities and other religions! Gujarat and Orissa find a mention amongst the errant states!

To quote Asma, "Organised mobs taking roots in religious idealogies have unleashed an all pervasive fear of mob violence." Taking a shot at the adminitrative and government lack of action and intention, she states that law enforcement agencies are often reluctant to take action against individuals or groups thatperpetrate violence in the name of religion or belief. (We all know that this can happen only and only if there is a political motive and backing to such individuals or groups.)

Drawing on an earlier report, Asma emphasizes that there is a real risk that communal violence may repeat unless political exploitation of communal distinction is effectively prevented and advocacy of religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility and violence is adequately addressed!

The report urges the authorities to take swift action and measures to protect the minorities and prevent communal violence. It also urges the judiciary to effect a time bound closure to communial riot cases and bringing the guilty to the bars!

One of the most impressive points made by Asma is to scruplously implement the Representation of Peoples act 1951 which provides for disqualification of membership of parliament and state legislatures of persons who promote feelings of enimity or hatred between different classes of citizens on grounds of race, religion, caste, community or language! That would debar the use of vote bank politics for serving petty means!

India: The ticking "minority" time bomb (Part I)

2009-02-10T23:38:00.000-08:00

Asma Jahangir, Pakistani human rights activist, UN special rapporteur has reported India in a poor light in terms of freedom of religion and beliefs. The report alludes to a real risk of religious strife in India.

http://blogs.reuters.com/india/2009/02/11/un-report-says-real-risk-of-indian-religious-strife/

In her report to the UN, Asma raises several issues of concern on

1. The situation of religious and beleief minorities

2. Justice for victims and survivors of communal violence

3. Freedom of religion and belief in Jammu and Kashmir

4. Negative impact of laws on religious conversion in several states

5. Implications of religion based personal laws

Asma, reports about the plight of Christians in Kandhamal, Orissa where Communal violence had claimed 40 christian lives, 4000 christian homes destroyed, 50 churches demolished. 20000 people are living in relief cmapigns and 40000 hiding in jungles. Access to food, drinking water, clothes, sanitation and healthcare to these people is abysmal

Asma also brings to light the "ghetto"ization of Muslim community in certain parts of India. It speaks about discrimation in work space, economic activity and civic liberties. The Militant strikes only exacerbate the situation hardenning the rift lines. Within the ghetto, Communalism breeds in poor living and flawed communal education. This in turn becomes the breeding ground for militants!

The report expressses concern on the extended timeframe of investigations in cases involving communal riots, violence and massacres. Cases in point are Operation Blue Star (Punjab 1984), Babri Masjid Demolition (Ayodhya, 1992), Godhra (Gujarat, 2002). While these memories haunt the victims, the impunity olny emboldens the perpetrators of such violence!

J&K has been an old issue in these UN rapporteurs! Discrimination against Muslims and Expulsion of the Kashmiri pandits is still a wedge stuck between the communities in J&K. The Muslim population is vulnerable to the excesses of the security forces while the entire population is victim of violence perpetrated by the Islamic militants! Lately, there has been a de-escalation fo the violence but Muslims from Srinagar are still denies rights such as admission to hotels in other parst of the country because they are muslims from Kashmir!

In absence of a proper legislative framework and understanding, laws against religious conversions, these can be seen as a violation of personal rights! Inadequate legislaturehas adverse consequences for religious minorities and has reportedly fostered mob violence aganist them!

Read the full UN report here: http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G09/104/62/PDF/G0910462.pdf?OpenElement

Of Economy, Environment and Human Development: Failure of the GDP concept!

2009-02-10T01:03:00.000-08:00

Gross Domestic product (GDP) as a progress indicator/paradigm was a part of the post 1940s era world reconstruction. Over the last 70 years GDP has become a construct for mesauring guman progress and all economic policy making is directed squarely at increasing/maximizing GDP! GDP as a part of national accounts was created by Richard Stone and James Meade with support from John Maynard Keynes as a means to keep track of the economic activity in a state.

However, the challenges faced by the world have now grown from economic/financial to environmental in nature. Then there are challenges on the human development side of things as well. Unfortunately, both the environment and the socio demographic human state is not measured as a indictator of progress. For example, the rich oil producing countries in middle east are the richest in nature and yet most parts of it have people living in the 17th century with no access to basic amenities. Likewise, China is a model for economic growth and yet its Human rights index and environment development index is amongst the poorest!

Interestingly Richard Stone, in his Nobel Memorial Speech in 1984 had himself stated that apart from economic growth, the analysis of a society's progress has to be based on socio demographic as well as the environmental phenoma. To be quoted "...environmental issues, such as poluution, land use and non renewable resources offer plenty of scope for accounting". Unfortunately, the world has continued to pay attention to the economic activity side stepping the environmental and human issues.

Given the socio demographic and environmental issues faced, the world today needs to create additional metrices such as Human Developmental Index and Carbon Footprint. There is a possibility that three metrics may not be preffered, in which case GDP has to be recaliberated to reflect genuine values to things like air and water pollution, deforestation, land degradation, use of alternate energies, health, education, crime etc. The result would be a new GDP number that would truely reflect value generated/consumed by human activities. A striking instance of how the new GDP calliberation would affect the old GDP system is the case of Uttar Pradesh. In just accounting for water quality in rivers in UP, 17.5% of the old GDP would be reduced! Imagine China going from a 11% GDP growth economy to 3% economy GDP growth economy because of the heavy inductrial pollution and bad human development indicators! US would go negative by two digit decimals!

What this would also mean is viability studies that are more rounded. For instance the economic surplus because of a new dam could get negated fully and more by the deficit in the ecological shifts and change in population demographics! That would provide an excellent allround development metric. It is time to move towarsd this sooner!

Happy Valentine's day ...with Love

2009-02-09T22:29:00.000-08:00

While some may call this indecent, i prefer to call this Gandhigiri at its best! With its Facebook online avatar (the consortium of Pubgoing, Loose and Forward Women) and its blogspot cousin: http://thepinkchaddicampaign.blogspot.com/ and onground pink chaddi collection centres, the Pink Chaddi campign is the latest and best in new found Gandhigiri! This also forms a perfect script for "Munnabhai and Pink Chaddi", if Rajkunar Hirani is planning a third edition of his Munnabhai blockbusters. Imagine Mallika Sherawat in the movie sending one of hers to Pramod Muthalik!

Citizen activism is up and catching up real fast. For all those years, where the common educated person was at the recieving end of Politics, this is the first time, outfits like Sri Ram Sene and bullies like Pramod Muthalik are facing the music of an angry population!

What happened in Mangalore was shameful and these self proclaimed bully armies need to be given the bittergourd treatement! In another interesting newsbit, the Karnataka Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa, has urged the prime minister to "rein" in the Union Women and Child Development minister Renuka Chaudhury for her caustic remarks about his government's inabilities to ensure law and order in his state (ref the Mangalore Pub incident). http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20090209/1173057.html

Gimmick or no gimmick, citizen activism is doing what the political brass and the Babudom have not been able to do so far. They are showing the end of tolerance of the Indians towards such irresponsible acts and behaviour. So then, Muthalik has wilted under the pressure of a citizen movement coupled with media hounding and has apologised

http://www.daijiworld.com/news/news_disp.asp?n_id=56180&n_tit=Pramod+Muthalik+Apologises+for+Mangalore+Pub+Attack.

So for, the citizen activism part: Jay Ho... Jay Ho!

Contesting the Lok Sabha elections with maturity and responsibility

2009-02-08T22:16:00.000-08:00

http://news.in.msn.com/national/article.aspx?cp-documentid=1816831
http://news.in.msn.com/national/article.aspx?cp-documentid=1816830

The only other place, where you would find a semblance of the "political one up man ship" act is probably the nursery for kids! Mud slinging is the USP of such debates! I was not surprised when L K Advani and Sonia Gandhi, the top most leaders in the respective fronts NDA and UPA have taken the first steps towards the political "debate". One would expect that being the top most leaders, these two individuals would step aside from this wild "free for all, no holds barred mud wrestling" matches to talk about development, economy, goals, direction and governance. Alas, the first salvo fired between these two fronts is basis what we call the dirty poll politics. If this be the start, it would only get worse from here both in thought and morals.

L K Advani has gone on an overdrive about three things: Hindutva issue and hence the Ram Mandir, the internal security issues threatening the country and the anti-Congress anti-dynastic rule. Significantly missing is any reference to the economy, trade, foreign policy and home issues (infrastructure, education, healthcare). I think it is time to realise that Ram is insufficient to galvanize votes. One has to have an agenda, a thought and a process! While LKA roils about internal security and the failure of UPA, may he be reminded that NDA carries the cross of Babri Demolition and the death of 1169 civilians in Gujarat riots!

Sonia Gandhi speaks against Divisive forces alluding to BJP and its allies for not supporting the ccause of the state in times of distress. For one thing, i would call Antulay's remarks after 26/11 a case of being divisive. Vote bank "Secular" politics have been far more divisive than any political gambit, and the allies of UPA play this card best. UPAs own leadership issues may be divisive to the common cause and agenda.

Net of all
1. Two seniormost leaders of the political bulwarks should be more fore-sightful in terms of what their parties stand for! (do they define their existance as being the anti matter of the other or are they relevant to India in its present state?)
2. In absence of an agenda for the country, BJP will end up doing a VK Malhotra act (in Delhi) for the polls in the country!
3. With people like Manmohan Singh and P Chidambaram one still has faith about the Congress. (Inspite of the Shivraj Patils, Arun Singhs and Antulays of the world in the same party)

The release of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan

2009-02-06T23:00:00.000-08:00

That man on the picture who looks as innocuous as any septuagenerian is a very dangerous person. Individually he has done more to ensure that the world is a more dangerous place to live than many rogue state and governments combined together. He is Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, Pakistan's Nuke Man, the greatest nuclear technology smuggler and proliferator! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Qadeer_Khan

On him rests the responsibility of nuclear weaponized Libya, Iran and North Korea! The Saudi Arabia and Egypt angles have not been proven yet. On 6th February 2009, Islamabad High court declared AQK a "free man". His "house arrest" for the last 5 years is widely viewed as a neccessity for his own security. However, according AQK a "free man" status is perhaps a clear indication from Islamabad to US. An indication that Pakistan's loyalties cannot be taken for granted! Earlier, the Pakistan Foreign minister had issued a statement regarding "trust" on China. ( Where does that put US?). There have also been requests from Asif Zardari to US to do away with "drone attacks". Could the release of AQK be judged as an act of defiance by the Pakistani government? Especially because, AQK's house arrest under the Musharraf regime was seen as a tactic to assuage US woes and giving in to US pressure on AQK. There has been no direct word from officials in Islamabad on the government's interest and reactions on the release. However, "AQK" has thanked Asif Ali Zardari for lifting the restriction imposed on him. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1877608,00.html?xid=rss-topstories

While AQK had in a televised address in 2004 confessed to smuggling and stealing nuclear technology, later he had retracted his confession saying that its was forced on him, by the authorities i.e Musharraf! He had also indicated at another time, that the smuggling and stealing of nuclear weapon technology was done under the knowdge of the Pakistan authorities and there were pay offs at all levels (indicating a broader conspiracy). All said and done, Musharraf never allowed US or the IAEA to interrogate AQK.

We already have a threat note from Congressman Howard Berman,Chairman of House Committee of Foreign Relations ( a powerful Congressional committee that plays a key role in shaping US foreign policy) in terms of US assistance provided to Islamabad. In coming weeks, the House of Representatives and the Senate are likely to take up a legislation, which proposes to triple the non-military aid to Pakistan – amounting to $1.5 billion per annum for the next ten years.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/us-warns-pakliftingq-khans-house-arrest/10/29/54539/on

The situation in the subcontinent is far from what can be called "under control". Pakistan and Afghanistan are bombs waiting to detaonate. Loyalties and stands have varied from one end to another. Pakistan for instance has made many vacillating comments on the "war against terror". Its own loyalties are split between Islamic fundamentalism and allegiance to America against economic aid to keep alive! Counting on such a state as an ally is a mistake that America can ill afford. Will Obama choose to take more direct steps to diffuse Pakistan as a crisis or will he also circumvent and procrastinate the inevitable? By inevitable i mean a joint military operation in Pakistan (may be against Pakistan's own wishes but in their interest) to free the state of its rabid fundamentalists and ensure a free democratic structure working on its own.

A detailed history of AQK and his Nuclear smuggling network:
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1025193-1,00.html

IPL defies Recession, Slowdown and the Downturn!

2009-02-06T07:24:00.000-08:00

http://www.livemint.com/2009/02/06110832/Pietersen-Flintoff-fetch-reco.html?h=A1

Recession? What is that? Obama may be keen on limiting the top CEO and banker salaries, but hey, he hasnot heard about IPL!

And i thought Vijay Mallya was cash strapped due to losses in Kingfisher operations. His overzealous acquisition of KP suggests his pockets are deeper than thought! Sometimes, i think Mallya is handling more than he can... with Force India, United Breweries, Banglore Royal Challengers, Kingfisher and all! Offhand, i think that the acquisition of KP was funded by the Rs.80000/- per month pay cut of the pilots in Kingfisher Airlines. The break even of Rs.7.75 crores paid by Mallya for KP would happen in less than a year. A small price to convert a test team to T 20 outfit!!

Theres enough and more star power at IPL this time around with Shilpa Shetty joining in the ranks of Preity Zinta, SRK, Katrina Kaif, Riya Sen and Juhi Chawla! The bids have soared through the sky for most of the 17 players who debut in IPL this year. Dhoni stands trounced by KP and Freddie as the top billed player. Interestinly, if i remember it correct, in IPL season 1 it was mainly the pool D,E,F players who provided the batting and bowling goods! Talk of Shaun Marsh? Gautam Gambhir? Shane Watson? So the highest bidded players were not the top draws in terms of results. VVS Laxman? Rahul Dravid? Sachin Tendulkar? Saurav Ganguly?

$1.5 million fee is pittance when you compare it with Messi's fee of $330 million in Spanish League! But well, cricket in its T 20 avatar is looking up steadily! You already have high passions at stake: Remember crying Srishant and Harbhajan's slap? Shane Warne has reported threatened not to play for Jaipur Royals if they shift base to Ahmedabad and Saurav Dada has indicated fitness for a T 20 go!

With the ad rates not so high this time around and companies being under seizure on account of a downturn, it would be interesting to see how much BCCI and Modi net in IPLs second coming! It would be interesting to do a Superbowl versus IPL kind of an analysis (specially now when the chips are down and out!). Watch this space.

WHo knows, India's deliverance from the downturn may be through the exuberrance of a sporting event after all!

Taking Bharat Nirman and India Shining further.

2009-02-04T02:16:00.000-08:00

After a suitably long time, i watched The India Sri Lanka cricket tie on Doordarshan National yesterday. Of the advertisements being aired, i couldnot miss the "Bharat Nirman efforts" TVCs. There is nothi9ng special about the ad. It speaks of the gigantic strides made by India in the recent years in the background even its imagery revoves around how development has touched people's lives. Circa, 2004 and a similar ad campaign comes to my mind: India Shining. That one also spoke about the developments made by the country in those years.

Interestingly India Shining did not deliver! NDA did not return to power for the next term inspite of a good campaign. The analysts felt that India Shining was mostly restricted to Cities, Metros and Tier A urban strata. The real fruit of the governance did not reach the majority who live in Semi Urban and Rural centres. Also India Shining was a poll campaign and not a "Business plan" as Bharat Nirman which was announced in 2005 is. Bharat Nirman is thus a business case with performance metrics on areas such as Roads, Telecommunication, Irrigation, Water Supply, Housing and Electrification. So instead of poll promises, Manmohan Singh stuck his neck out on a time bound plan to deliver goods for the rural infastructure. That was brave, serious and required lot of guts.

Over the next 4 years, there have been strides made, some significant and some not so. Planning Commission has now caliberated the performance against targets, and some aspects are badly off. Bharat Nirman, from its first day has been more of a subsidy scheme where the government makes you good roads, it provides you better water, telecommunication and electricity and houses. Tomorrow if the new government is not willing to spend on the project, then the assets so diligently put on ground will whither erode and depreciate away. Essentially, my arguement is that, the government is catching all the fish for the people hoping in its hears that the rural economy will learn how to fish by watching government fish! Not quite the best solution... the idea should be to make the rural economy learn fishing, hook line and sinker!

Towards this there should be a participation involved between private companies, and instead of the public private relationship being a contractor client relationship, one could look at a partnership based ventures. To put down an example or two, the partnership in investment can be shared between ITC and Government for areas growing wheat, between Lays and Government for areas growing Potato, for Adani and Government for areas growing oil seeds and so on. Thus the goverment would provide all the Bharat Norman elements, the private player would provide schools, dispensaries, vet hospitals, agricultural yield increase know hows and a uniform rate exchange in return of the harvest and certain tax reductions! This would be the SEZ model for government in rural areas. A self sustaining body that, after the initial "Bharat Nirman" push would not require any more proding from the government.

Why wont Pakistan make it as a nation? (Part IV): A Failed State

2009-02-02T06:00:00.000-08:00

I did not quite expect that i will be writing a part 4 to this series of blogs about Pakistan. Reality is that i am not a Pakistan basher, but then as a state, it is under such a mess that one cant help but ruminate Pakistan's Course: Its present and its Future.

Stratfor (short for Strategic Forum, a US think Tank) has warned in its report Jihadism in 2009: The trends continue, that Pakistan could become a failed state if if it failed to take action against the terror elements and establish government control over ISI, the “rogue spy agency”. Even as Asif Ali zardari, the president of the state, publicly bemoans the death of Benazir, there is no sign of any activity to bring the perpetrators of the Benazir conspiracy to courts of law!

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/Radioactive_Pak_may_turn_fissile_Stratfor_warns_of_a_failed_state/articleshow/4061306.cms

With a dash of irony, i find this report very insightful. Especially if a search: Failed state + Pakistan reports 504000 hits on Google! The only interesting allusion is to teh nuclear warheads in Pakistan. That, is the bigger picture they have tried to complete. An irresponsible and fragile state gurading a nuclear stockpile. That no good news for India. It isnt for good news for US as well, especially since US is Enemy no 1 on the Jihad campaign!

Back to Pakistan and its Failed state status. Fund for peace, a washington based non profit research organization releases a Failed States index every year basis 12 indicators which are social, economic and political in nature. Here’s how the Fund for Peace defines a failed state:

A state that is failing has several attributes. One of the most common is the loss of physical control of its territory or a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Other attributes of state failure include the erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions, an inability to provide reasonable public services, and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community. (Conditions sound familiar! dont they???)

Read the Failed state index reports in details here: http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=99&Itemid=140

Pakistan fares high on that list. No 9 in the failed states around the world. Only Afghanistan amongst the Asian countries is above it! Pakistan's inability of governance of the FATA (Federally administered Tribal Areas) and its more recent loss of Swat valley to Taliban show the democratic government has lost physical control of its territory. That Pakistan has three heads of state: the Prime Minister + President, the Army Chief and the ISI Taliban nexus is a clear-as-daylight fact. The ISI and the army are mostly autonomous in the way they work and thats quite been the way it is since a long time (about 1977 when Zia came to power). Its public services and law and order situation are in doldrums even as one gets to hear that the number of civilians killed in terror/militant activities is 6700 for the calendar year 2008! Click here for casualities for terrorist violence in Pakistan http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm

As far as the international community is concerened, no one doubts that absolute anarchy rules Pakistani and there is not enough political will to fight the extremist forces to give law, order, peace and development a chance!

The question remains an inconvenient truth: Is the Pakistan leadership doing enough to save their nation? Or is another Afghanistan in the making?

Can Left and Congress align again?

2009-01-30T04:31:00.000-08:00

As a answer to an ET debate:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4049709.cms

The left and Congress can have a walk in the park only and only if BJP is lurking around in the bushes. The idea i am putting across is, the politics of anti BJP is the only commonality between these two parties. All earlier Congress + Left coalitions have been only studies in convenience and way for Congress to garner Lok Sabha numbers.

I am not debating that Congress is bad or BJP is. The point i make here is that, being the largest two parties in the largest democracy in the world, Congress and BJP should have an active agenda, a plan for progress, which ought to be shared with junta. More and more, these developmental agendas will decide the fate of political parties in the elections. The case in point is Kashmir, which inspite of being strife torn and terrorism plagued voted for Bijli, Sadak and Paani! After elections, in case of a simple majority eluding the winner, post election alliances can be sort with regional parties on the agenda of development as set before elections already.

As far as the political spectrum is concerned, let the Left be "Left". Personally i dont see any leadership, perspective,coherence and vision in Left. From being anti 123 to Singrur fiasco to Achutanandan's comment on "stray dogs" at martyr Unnikrishnan's house to allegations of corruption, Left has not made any significant inroads anywhere in terms of a vision for a unified and developed country.

As an end note, I was impressed by L K Advani's blogs and website. Its very Obamaesque! Congress and BJP need to take a leaf out of Obama's campaign. Both Congress and BJP will have to draft their developmental agendas with or without the Left.

Subhiksha: A Perfect go Bust (Part II)

2009-01-30T04:20:00.000-08:00

When i blogged the first time on the unsustainable business model at Subhiksha (September 5th, 2008), which would cause it to go burst, i had not imagined, that i will be doing a second blog on that story.

This is the First Blog Link:
http://newspaper-posts.blogspot.com/2008/09/subhiksha-perfect-go-bust.html

6 months later, my predictions are born true. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4053575.cms
http://www.livemint.com/2009/01/30180828/Subhiksha-on-virtual-collapse.html?h=A4

The Interesting bit about Subhiksha's roll out strategy is somewhere R Subramaniam, Founder CEO, also believed that if the retail model didnot live upto his expectations, he had make money on the real estate of the 1000 odd outlets. The Recession and the Real estate meltdown has now seen to it that he wouldnot be making as much money in reselling the stores as well.

I also find the statement by the company official on zero credit being the reason for the fall to be difficult to comprehend. Till not so long ago, Subhiksha had 1/2/3 months credit running from vendors who eventually then, turned off the supply taps. I have been privy to Vendor management systems in Subhiksha to bear out on the same. Subhiksha employees had not been given 2/3 month salaries even during the times of festival months. It has shut all expansion plans in east India! Majority of employees are out of their jobs and demanding salary arrears. In fact the Delhi Head office of Subhiksha has been locked by the owners of the property on account of non payment of the rents!

A convenient bet gone wrong and a business which never ran right for the lack of adeherence to fundamentals. I give Subhiksha another1 month before it goes belly up!

So long Mr Subramaniyam!

Are we heading towards a socialistic/ communist form of governance / economy now? With bailouts we would see governments’ involvement in running varie

2009-01-28T05:32:00.000-08:00

In reply to a debate on Linked in, http://www.linkedin.com/answers?viewQuestion=&questionID=407839&askerID=6067402&browseIdx=0&sik=1233147316767&goback=%2Easr_1_1233147316767&report%2Esuccess=vfLh7ZiQxNtkwQoO3efsNN1zAgQ8WXmCT24lKBBmlHq_pfcN7JydQUoVP_zdv4b8

Disagree.The current crisis shouldnot be seen as fall of capitalism. Capitalism idealogically is more than just "GREED".Nothing lasts infinity. Not even greed. That is as far as i understand the current meltdown. There can be no mastery over risk and no escaping the economic/business cycles.Common sense prevailed over bubble optimism with this burst. No mortage was too absurd, no leverage too great, no structured product too reckess when risk spreading models were so brilliantly engineered. Thats a conception which has been blown away. The business cyle is real. There is a very real relation between supply and demand. You cant sustain a market based on lending when the borrowers dont have the resources to pay back the loans. Thats pretty basic. Misadventures against these axiomatic truthisms is what we pay for.AND YET THAT IS NOT THE FALL OF CAPITALISM!In spirit Capitalism is free enterprise. While 1929 saw a meltdown which was as bad or even worse, that didnot end capitalism. Entrepreneurial endeavours and capitalsim made the world the way it is in terms of achievements despite 13 depressions since 1929. As far as, the state control on business is concerned, Keynes or any other economist didnot limit themselves by saying the government cannot limit itself to being a stakeholder in Capitalsit economies. I wholly agree that presently the government is the only crutch failing banks and businesses are holding on to.Well that is the result of slack governance on the part of the state in the corporate sector. It appears that the US economy didnot learn from its Enron and WorldCom and was waiting for Lehmann brothers to happen.From the sweat shop in Burma to the clouds in the web world and heavy machines, i see capitalist endeavour everywhere. The state has played its part by picking up a 1 trillion dollar penalty for not roping in GREED. Thus i again make the point, Capitalism is one thing, Greed is another.

Insidious effects of the Cultural Cold War

2009-01-24T04:08:00.000-08:00

Excerpts of how the philosophy of hatred within masses can damage attempts at peace.

1. Hotel Mohenjo - daro, a Pakistani play has been cancelled in India.
2. January 14th, MNS activistsbarged into a studio where a Pakistani comedian was recording for a TV show.
3. Book stores in Mumbai have had to pull out Pakistani writers works dreading MNS activism and arson.
4. 10 - 15 major shows by Pakistani musicians have been cancelled.

This kind of low grade people to people conflicy can be more corrosive than all out ways.. Insiya Amir, Correspondent.

Culture plays a big part in helping overturn stereotypes asnd providing alternatives to official narratives. When you muffle these voices, you are increasingly left with governments pointing figers at each other, which only increases jingoistic attitudes .. Pakistani writer, Kamila Shamsie

Cultural excahnges build bridges which no amount of politics can achieve. Artists need to travel, they need to introduce their world to new worlds... Fahid Hamid Ali, Pakistani Painter.

People to people conflict, can hieghten tensions as each person will feel targeted individually, leading to more hostility and unreceptivness... Mehr Hussain, Freelance Journalist

It was 2004, when the Indian cricket team went to the friendship cricket series in Pakistan. To me, that series did more good to India - Pakistan than a decade of bus diplomacies! Pakis and Indis are same people from the same cultural seed. We appreciate sufi, Begum Abida Parveen, Ghulam Ali and Junoon as much as they love Amitabh Bachchan, SRK and Indian movies. By erecting embargoes arround cultural exchanges, governments are killing the little ray of hope that we may harbour, one that we call culture.

Fighting the enemy within

2009-01-24T03:44:00.000-08:00

According a ToI survey, 26% of Indians believe that a war on Pakistan is the way to be for India. Bal Thackeray, Shiv Sena chief had also spoken about "iron to attack Pakistan". Most of us today have a face to our enemy or at least a geography to our enemy. It is Pakistan. It is Al qaeda, Lashkar e Toiba, Zardari, Geelani, Kiyani and others in the Pakistani leadership. I truly believe that this is misplaced Jingoism.

That there is threat to our nation is a gospel truth. However, is it just Pakistan and a bunch of religious islamic bigots? A bunch of gunmen blinded by religious zeal, will never threaten history. A nation's history is made by its economic, social and cultural developments and conquests. In this respect, there are those within India, who we call elected leaders of the masses who have greater impact on the way this nation proceeds in future. Amongst this group, there are few who have an agenda and lead on that basis. Unfortunately there are more who have no agenda and lead on the basis of caste, community or simply corruption. The Mayawatis, Amar Singhs, Shibu Sorens, Raj Thackerays and A R Antulays of the world have more profound impact on the nation than terrorists. It sometimes occurs to me that Sheila Dixits win at the Delhi elections was a true and significant one in terms of economic developmental projects winning over divisive vote bank politics. These internal demons are the more difficult ones to fight and win against!

As far as Pakistan is concerned, i believe that the diplomatic offensive launched by India is the best strike. By alienating and isolating Pakistan, India would and could resolve the issue is a far better manner than an all out aggressive incursion into enemy territory. Already, Barrack Obama has sounded of his views on "aid" to Pakistan against results! Economic sanctions and trade restrictions are far more advanced weapons of war than we think them to be.

'Cos need to make the shift from ideas to execution'

2009-01-20T23:52:00.000-08:00

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Corporate_Announcement/Cos_need_to_make_the_shift_from_ideas_to_execution/articleshow/4009479.cms#write
A comment on the main story in TOI

Slightly differing and consider-all-factors view on this story..

An idea whose time has come is the roll out of 3G and WiMax telecom networks in the country. 3G will be essential in giving the technology edge to executives and managers. WiMax has the power to take broadband connectivity to distant villages. 2G will continue to service the bulk of population.

2009, being an election year, will see a spate of populist measures. Money will be spent on meaningless pursuit of "free to the population". In face of that Government, is considering hiking up the licensing fees of 3G networks from 1650 cr to 4040 crores. Similarly it is considering hiking up the licensing fees of WiMax to 2020 crores from 1000 crores. All to meet the CA deficit. All too well, except that such prohibitory fees will find no takers. Companies will have brilliant ideas, but no policy measure and prohibitory measures will impede execution. In terms of 2G networks, India has commisioned a paltry 6 Mhz to telecom open market. In most of the countries this is 12-15 Mhz. This impairs call quality and causes congestion. Many ideas do not see execution because of this crunch.
Point I make here is, governance is the third and a very critical bit. Idea and execution is internal to companies and a company not doing well on these counts will fail in the market by its own doing. However, where is the space for execution of novelties when governance limits the base functions in the first place.

Thumbs up for China, Thumbs down for India

2009-01-20T22:20:00.000-08:00

I start this blog with 2 widely believed and unproven hypothesis. You would probably get to hear them more in the corporate boardrooms specially MNCs which have invested and done business with India.

Hyp. 1: India discounts it GDP growth by 2% on account of infrastructure unavailability. Whether be the lack of proper roads, or electricity, or governance, or airport infrastructure or just the red tapism in the bureaucracy. It is a significant deterant to the global super power dreams of India.

Hyp 2: India's growth has been powered more by its educated citizenry with government being a by stander in the growth. If any thing, the neta giri and the babu-dom have shackled the Indian executives and business more than giving them head room and leg room to grow. Mani Ratnam's Guru, had a 4 minute monologue by Abhishek Bachchan on the fetters that governance is putting over capitalism in this country.

India ranks a lowly 122 amongst 181 economies in terms of "ease to do business index", a reportpublished by the world bank group. Only African nations and war torn economies are more difficlut than India in terms of ease to do business! So much so for an economy whihc is the second fastest in the world in terms of growth.

Vodafone’s global CEO Vittorio Colao made his point clear in the CII conference on 19th January 2009, that India must offer increased clarity on its foreign direct investment across sectors. The(FDI) policy in India is complex and lends to multiple interpretations. Companies work on their legal interpretation of the policy and sometimes, find that they have tripped onto the illegal side of things as per policy.

What ever interpretation we give to the Indo - China ascendancy, whether be the tiger or the elephant and the dragon; policy makers in India should understand this clearly as anything else, we are in the competition of global investment. Better products, better services, better jobs are only possible if, suitable climate is provided to businesses to perform. As a first hand, i am aware of the "gifts" that lobbies and corporates bestow on the Babus in the state and union to see that the businesses continue unhindered. Bribes form a part of the deal, right from the CEOs office to the ground of action where the municipal clerks and the policemen are "taken care of". I was not wonder struck, when one of these opinion polls revealed that Indian corporates are least averse to paying bribes for smooth functioning of their operations.

Even China is state controlled to a very large extent. However, the difference is stark. The Dragon's speed, growth and efficiency is a product of the state governance. It is top down , while for India it is bottom up. Without a doubt, in the long run, a bottom up is more beneficial. However, in the present circumstances, it is dragging the resurgence down below.

In an earlier blog, i had mentioned, 2009 being the election year will mean a plethora of populist measures. The exchequer is going to bleed and the onus for making up on the losses will be laid squarely on the shoulders of corporate India. Already, i believe that the upward revision of 3G licensing fees from Rs.1650 crore to Rs.4040 crore makes it a untenable option for business houses. Unviability will lead to slower roll outs impacting services standards in the country. But really, does any one care?